ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
03.10.2026 14:00
The Hive Stadium

Barnet vs York Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Barnet Win 79.4%
Draw 5.5%
York Win 15.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Barnet1.86
York1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Barnet Barnet
WWDLW
26 GF / 18 GA
York York
WLDWL
24 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.85
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.85
12
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
10
4.86
Shots on Goal
5.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Barnet Barnet 14 matches
York York 13 matches
Barnet Statistic York
6 Wins 5
7 Draws 3
1 Losses 5
26 Goals For 24
18 Goals Against 24
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.85
12 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 13
10 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 1
4.86 Shots On Goal 5.5
15.71 Total Shots 16.88
6.71 Corners 6.25
51.1% Ball Possession 62.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Barnet arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 15 points compared to York in 7 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors York. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Barnet expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and York in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward York having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Barnet Analysis

Barnet come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 15 points from 7 matches. The record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 17:10 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through C. Lakin (5 goals), K. Tshimanga (3 goals), T. Knowles (2 goals), with creative support from K. Tshimanga (3 assists), C. Lakin (2 assists), T. Knowles (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

York Analysis

York are currently 7 in the standings with 11 points from 7 matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 13:10 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Newby (5 goals), O. Pearce (1 goals), O. Banks (1 goals), with creative support from H. Boyes (3 assists), O. Pearce (2 assists), J. King (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Barnet won 5 times, York won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:18 from Barnet's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Barnet 4-2-3-1 / York 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Barnet wins 5, draws 1, York wins 4

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 4 3 0 17:10 7 15
W W D D D
2 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
W D W D W
3 8 5 0 3 13:11 2 15
W L L W W
4
York Away
8 4 2 2 16:10 6 14
W L W D L
5 8 3 5 0 11:5 6 14
D W D D D
6 8 3 4 1 12:8 4 13
L W W D D
7 8 4 1 3 12:10 2 13
W W D W W
8 8 3 3 2 11:9 2 12
L W W W D
9 8 2 6 0 8:6 2 12
D D D D D
10 8 2 5 1 10:8 2 11
D D L W D
11 8 3 2 3 11:10 1 11
L W W D D
12 8 3 2 3 9:12 -3 11
D L L W W
13 8 2 4 2 11:11 0 10
D W D L D
14 8 2 4 2 9:9 0 10
L L D W D
15 8 2 4 2 10:12 -2 10
D D D L L
16 8 3 1 4 9:11 -2 10
W W D L W
17 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
W D D L L
18 8 2 2 4 7:13 -6 8
D D W L L
19 8 1 4 3 11:14 -3 7
D D L W D
20 8 2 1 5 9:13 -4 7
L L L L D
21 8 1 3 4 4:6 -2 6
L D L D D
22 7 1 3 3 3:6 -3 6
L L W D D
23 7 1 2 4 3:9 -6 5
L W L L D
24 7 1 1 5 6:13 -7 4
L L L D L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League