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20.10.2026 18:45
The Hive Stadium
Referee: B. Atkinson
Barnet
Match Timeline
Swindon Town
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
Mitchell Clark · Assist: Aaron Drinan
Swindon Town
⚽
35'
Aaron Drinan · Assist: Matthew Virtue-Thick
Swindon Town
⚽
37'
Aaron Drinan · Assist: Jack Thomson
Swindon Town
🔄
58'
Joe Snowdon ↔ Louis Millard
Swindon Town
🔄
63'
Nikola Tavares ↔ Tom Knowles
Barnet
🔄
64'
Nnamdi Ofoborh ↔ Jake Reeves
Barnet
🔄
67'
Jack Thomson ↔ Tom Nichols
Swindon Town
🔄
67'
Matthew Virtue-Thick ↔ James Debayo
Swindon Town
🔄
67'
Oisin Gallagher ↔ Damola Ajayi
Barnet
🔄
76'
Aaron Drinan ↔ antwoine hackford
Swindon Town
🔄
76'
S. Inwood ↔ James Ball
Swindon Town
🔄
83'
Idris Kanu ↔ Myles Kenlock
Barnet
⚽
90'
Kabongo Tshimanga · Assist: Charlie Lakin
Barnet
🟨
90+2'
Louis Millard
Swindon Town

Barnet vs Swindon Town Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Barnet Win 88%
Draw 6%
Swindon Town Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Barnet1.78
Swindon Town1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Barnet Barnet
W W W W D
13 GF / 7 GA
Swindon Town Swindon Town
D L L D L
2 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.94
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
14
BTTS Yes
9
12
Over 2.5
10
4.33
Shots on Goal
3.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Barnet Barnet 16 matches
Swindon Town Swindon Town 17 matches
Barnet Statistic Swindon Town
8 Wins 6
7 Draws 3
1 Losses 8
31 Goals For 22
20 Goals Against 26
1.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
14 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 12
12 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 7
4.33 Shots On Goal 3.09
15.78 Total Shots 10
6.11 Corners 4.18
52.6% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Barnet's more proactive style and Swindon Town's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Barnet expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Swindon Town in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Swindon Town having the stronger overall control. Swindon Town arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Swindon Town. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Barnet arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 18 points compared to Swindon Town in 17 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Barnet Analysis

Barnet come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 18 points after 8 matches. They have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a 20:11 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on C. Lakin (5 goals), K. Tshimanga (4 goals), T. Knowles (2 goals), with creative support from K. Tshimanga (4 assists), C. Lakin (2 assists), T. Knowles (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Swindon Town Analysis

With 11 points from 10 games and a place of 17, Swindon Town still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 9:14, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through A. Drinan (4 goals), O. Clarke (1 goals), J. Hungbo (1 goals), with creative support from S. Negru (1 assists), A. Munda (1 assists), J. Thomson (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Barnet won 2 times, Swindon Town won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:13 from Barnet's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Barnet 4-2-3-1 / Swindon Town 4-3-3
H2H summary: Barnet wins 2, draws 1, Swindon Town wins 5

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 1 3 25:15 10 31
W W W W W
2 13 7 5 1 28:18 10 26
D W D L W
3 13 5 7 1 21:12 9 22
W L W D D
4 14 5 7 2 17:17 0 22
D L L W W
5 14 6 3 5 23:25 -2 21
L W W L L
6 14 5 5 4 24:18 6 20
W W D L L
7 14 5 5 4 24:21 3 20
L L W D D
8 14 5 5 4 20:19 1 20
W L D L W
9 14 4 7 3 23:17 6 19
D W D W D
10 14 5 4 5 24:21 3 19
L W D L D
11 14 4 7 3 19:17 2 19
W D W L D
12 14 5 4 5 11:9 2 19
L W W D W
13 14 5 4 5 15:17 -2 19
W D W D L
14 14 4 6 4 20:17 3 18
W L D D W
15 14 5 3 6 17:22 -5 18
L D W W L
16 14 4 5 5 18:18 0 17
W L L W D
17 14 5 1 8 17:23 -6 16
L D L L L
18 14 4 3 7 15:19 -4 15
W L D L W
19 12 4 3 5 10:14 -4 15
W L D W W
20 14 4 3 7 17:26 -9 15
L L D L D
21 13 3 5 5 9:10 -1 14
L D W L W
22 14 2 6 6 18:25 -7 12
L D D L L
23 13 2 6 5 12:19 -7 12
L L D D L
24 12 2 3 7 13:21 -8 9
W D L L D
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League