ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio San Nicola
Referee: M. Mariani
Bari
Match Timeline
Virtus Entella
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Cas Odenthal
Bari
45'
G. Moncini · Assist: M. Braunoder
Bari
🟥
53'
Matthias Verreth
Bari
🟨
53'
Bernat Guiu
Virtus Entella
🟨
54'
Matthias Braunöder
Bari
🔄
62'
E. Rao ↔ D. Nikolaou
Bari
🔄
62'
G. Moncini ↔ M. Cuni
Bari
🔄
67'
L. Parodi ↔ D. Bariti
Virtus Entella
🔄
68'
L. Benedetti ↔ M. Tirelli
Virtus Entella
🟨
71'
Stefano Di Mario
Virtus Entella
🔄
73'
L. Dickmann ↔ M. Mane
Bari
🔄
74'
R. Pagano ↔ T. Esteves
Bari
🟨
75'
Bernat Guiu
Virtus Entella
🟥
75'
Bernat Guiu
Virtus Entella
🔄
79'
S. Di Mario ↔ R. Turicchia
Virtus Entella
🔄
79'
N. Squizzato ↔ N. Karic
Virtus Entella
🔄
87'
M. Dorval ↔ G. Maggiore
Bari
🔄
90'
F. Mezzoni ↔ D. P. Stabile
Virtus Entella
90'
G. Maggiore
Bari

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 40.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
40.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bari Win 58.7%
Draw 6.9%
Virtus Entella Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bari1.05
Virtus Entella1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bari Bari
WWDLW
33 GF / 60 GA
Virtus Entella Virtus Entella
WLDWL
39 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
19
BTTS Yes
20
19
Over 2.5
14
2.95
Shots on Goal
3.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bari Bari 37 matches
Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 38 matches
Bari Statistic Virtus Entella
8 Wins 10
10 Draws 13
19 Losses 15
33 Goals For 39
60 Goals Against 49
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
19 BTTS Yes 20
30 Over 1.5 28
19 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 8
15 Failed To Score 11
2.95 Shots On Goal 3.45
10.32 Total Shots 12.08
3.57 Corners 4.97
46.3% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Bari have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Virtus Entella. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Bari expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Virtus Entella in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Virtus Entella having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Bari Analysis

Bari approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 34 points from 36 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 10 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 33:58 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on G. Moncini (9 goals), E. Rao (6 goals), C. Gytkjaer (3 goals), with creative support from M. Dorval (6 assists), L. Dickmann (3 assists), G. Moncini (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Virtus Entella Analysis

Virtus Entella approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 39 points from 36 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 12 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 34:48 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Andrea Tiritiello (7 goals), A. Franzoni (6 goals), L. Cuppone (5 goals), with creative support from N. Karic (4 assists), B. Guiu (4 assists), Tommaso Fumagalli (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Bari won 2 times, Virtus Entella won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:8 from Bari's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.1%)
Predicted formations: Bari 3-4-2-1 / Virtus Entella 3-5-2
H2H summary: Bari wins 2, draws 2, Virtus Entella wins 2
Stats
Bari Bari
Virtus Entella Virtus Entella
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
0
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
3
1 Corner Kicks 4
15 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1
43% Ball Possession 57%
5 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Goal 5
0 Shots off Goal 8
0 Blocked Shots 3
4 Shots insidebox 8
1 Shots outsidebox 8
5 Goalkeeper Saves 3
318 Total passes 411
240 Passes accurate 335
1.15 expected_goals 0.66
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Bari
Formation
Virtus Entella
M. Cerofolini
M. Cerofolini
L. Dickmann
L. Dickmann
C. Odenthal
C. Odenthal
V. Mantovani
V. Mantovani
M. Dorval
M. Dorval
M. Braunoder
🎯
M. Braunoder
M. Verreth
M. Verreth
K. Piscopo
K. Piscopo
R. Pagano
R. Pagano
G. Moncini
G. Moncini
E. Rao
E. Rao
F. Del Frate
F. Del Frate
L. Parodi
L. Parodi
A. Tiritiello
A. Tiritiello
I. Marconi
I. Marconi
F. Mezzoni
F. Mezzoni
A. Franzoni
A. Franzoni
N. Squizzato
N. Squizzato
L. Benedetti
L. Benedetti
S. Di Mario
S. Di Mario
L. Cuppone
L. Cuppone
B. Guiu
B. Guiu
Bari 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
31
M. Cerofolini
G
24
L. Dickmann
↓ 73'
D
26
C. Odenthal
🟨 22'
D
13
V. Mantovani
D
93
M. Dorval
↓ 87'
D
27
M. Braunoder
🎯 45' 🟨 54'
M
29
M. Verreth
🟥 53'
M
28
K. Piscopo
M
8
R. Pagano
↓ 74'
M
11
G. Moncini
⚽ 45' ↓ 62'
F
17
E. Rao
↓ 62'
Substitutes
1
M. Pissardo
G
10
N. Bellomo
M
9
C. Gytkjaer
F
25
R. Pucino
D
43
D. Nikolaou
↑ 62'
D
19
T. Esteves
↑ 74'
D
49
G. De Pieri
M
66
D. Traore
M
18
G. Maggiore
⚽ 90' ↑ 87'
M
90
M. Cuni
↑ 62'
F
30
M. Mane
↑ 73'
37
G. Stabile
Virtus Entella 3-5-2
Starting XI
22
F. Del Frate
G
23
L. Parodi
↓ 67'
D
6
A. Tiritiello
D
15
I. Marconi
D
94
F. Mezzoni
↓ 90'
M
24
A. Franzoni
M
5
N. Squizzato
↓ 79'
M
32
L. Benedetti
↓ 68'
M
26
S. Di Mario
↓ 79' 🟨 71'
M
10
L. Cuppone
F
11
B. Guiu
🟨 53' 🟨 75' 🟥 75'
F
Substitutes
99
O. Siaulys
G
80
R. Rinaldini
G
7
D. Bariti
↑ 67'
M
4
M. Nichetti
M
17
M. Tirelli
↑ 68'
46
R. Turicchia
↑ 79'
D
9
D. P. Stabile
↑ 90'
F
27
M. Dalla Vecchia
M
8
N. Karic
↑ 79'
M
3
M. Alborghetti
D
57
T. Del Lungo
D
19
A. Debenedetti
F
Last matches: Bari
22.05.26
Ser
Bari
Sudtirol
0
0
D
15.05.26
Ser
Bari
Sudtirol
0
0
D
08.05.26
Ser
Bari
Catanzaro
3
2
W
24.04.26
Ser
Bari
Avellino
0
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Bari
Venezia
0
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bari
Monza
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Bari
Modena
3
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bari
Carrarese
0
3
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bari
Frosinone
1
2
L
14.03.26
Ser
Bari
Reggiana
4
1
W
08.03.26
Ser
Bari
Pescara
0
4
L
04.03.26
Ser
Bari
Empoli
2
1
W
27.02.26
Ser
Bari
Sampdoria
2
0
W
21.02.26
Ser
Bari
Padova
1
1
D
15.02.26
Ser
Bari
Sudtirol
1
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Bari
Spezia
0
0
D
07.02.26
Ser
Bari
Mantova
1
2
L
30.01.26
Ser
Bari
Palermo
0
3
L
24.01.26
Ser
Bari
Cesena
2
1
W
17.01.26
Ser
Bari
Juve Stabia
0
1
L
Last matches: Virtus Entella
08.05.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Carrarese
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Padova
1
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Empoli
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Venezia
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Mantova
0
1
L
22.03.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Reggiana
3
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Pescara
0
3
L
15.03.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Avellino
1
2
L
07.03.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Sudtirol
1
0
W
03.03.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Modena
2
1
W
27.02.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Monza
0
2
L
21.02.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Catanzaro
1
3
L
14.02.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Palermo
0
3
L
10.02.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Cesena
3
1
W
07.02.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Spezia
1
1
D
31.01.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Frosinone
1
1
D
24.01.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Juve Stabia
0
1
L
16.01.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Sampdoria
1
1
D
10.01.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Monza
1
0
W
27.12.25
Ser
Virtus Entella
Venezia
0
1
L
H2H: Bari vs Virtus Entella
01.05.26
H2H
Bari
Virtus Entella
2
0
W
30.09.25
H2H
Virtus Entella
Bari
2
2
D
27.04.18
H2H
Bari
Virtus Entella
1
0
W
03.12.17
H2H
Virtus Entella
Bari
3
1
L
04.03.17
H2H
Virtus Entella
Bari
2
0
L
09.10.16
H2H
Bari
Virtus Entella
1
1
D
Last matches: Bari
15.05.26
Ser
Bari
Sudtirol
0
0
D
18.04.26
Ser
Bari
Venezia
0
3
L
06.04.26
Ser
Bari
Modena
3
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bari
Carrarese
0
3
L
14.03.26
Ser
Bari
Reggiana
4
1
W
04.03.26
Ser
Bari
Empoli
2
1
W
15.02.26
Ser
Bari
Sudtirol
1
2
L
11.02.26
Ser
Bari
Spezia
0
0
D
30.01.26
Ser
Bari
Palermo
0
3
L
17.01.26
Ser
Bari
Juve Stabia
0
1
L
27.12.25
Ser
Bari
Avellino
1
1
D
19.12.25
Ser
Bari
Catanzaro
1
2
L
08.12.25
Ser
Bari
Pescara
1
1
D
22.11.25
Ser
Bari
Frosinone
2
3
L
02.11.25
Ser
Bari
Cesena
1
0
W
26.10.25
Ser
Bari
Mantova
1
0
W
04.10.25
Ser
Bari
Padova
2
1
W
27.09.25
Ser
Bari
Sampdoria
1
1
D
31.08.25
Ser
Bari
Monza
1
1
D
H2H at home: Bari
01.05.26
H2H
Bari
Virtus Entella
2
0
W
27.04.18
H2H
Bari
Virtus Entella
1
0
W
09.10.16
H2H
Bari
Virtus Entella
1
1
D
Last matches: Virtus Entella
19.04.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Empoli
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Mantova
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Pescara
0
3
L
07.03.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Sudtirol
1
0
W
27.02.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Monza
0
2
L
14.02.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Palermo
0
3
L
07.02.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Spezia
1
1
D
24.01.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Juve Stabia
0
1
L
16.01.26
Ser
Virtus Entella
Sampdoria
1
1
D
27.12.25
Ser
Virtus Entella
Venezia
0
1
L
14.12.25
Ser
Virtus Entella
Carrarese
1
3
L
29.11.25
Ser
Virtus Entella
Catanzaro
2
3
L
08.11.25
Ser
Virtus Entella
Reggiana
0
0
D
28.10.25
Ser
Virtus Entella
Frosinone
0
4
L
05.10.25
Ser
Virtus Entella
Modena
0
2
L
27.09.25
Ser
Virtus Entella
Avellino
0
2
L
21.09.25
Ser
Virtus Entella
Padova
1
2
L
30.08.25
Ser
Virtus Entella
Cesena
1
1
D
16.08.25
Cop
Virtus Entella
Cagliari
1
1
D
H2H away: Virtus Entella
01.05.26
H2H
Bari
Virtus Entella
2
0
L
27.04.18
H2H
Bari
Virtus Entella
1
0
L
09.10.16
H2H
Bari
Virtus Entella
1
1
D