ITALY SERIE B
15.05.2026 18:00
Stadio San Nicola
Referee: A. Rapuano
Bari
Match Timeline
Sudtirol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45+2'
Gabriele Moncini
Bari
🟨
54'
Silvio Merkaj
Sudtirol
🟨
57'
Michele Cerofolini
Bari
🟨
60'
Simone Tronchin
Sudtirol
🔄
62'
R. Pagano ↔ F. Artioli
Bari
🔄
62'
T. Esteves ↔ M. Braunoder
Bari
🔄
65'
M. R. Frigerio ↔ J. Martini
Sudtirol
🟨
72'
Kevin Piscopo
Bari
🔄
76'
G. Maggiore ↔ G. De Pieri
Bari
🔄
76'
G. Moncini ↔ M. Cuni
Bari
🔄
79'
S. Merkaj ↔ R. Odogwu
Sudtirol
🔄
86'
E. Rao ↔ N. Bellomo
Bari
🔄
86'
S. Tronchin ↔ F. Tait
Sudtirol
🔄
86'
S. Davi ↔ K. Zedadka
Sudtirol
🔄
86'
E. Pecorino ↔ D. Crnigoj
Sudtirol
🟨
87'
Nicola Bellomo
Bari

Bari vs Sudtirol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
72.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Bari Win 56.3%
Draw 12.8%
Sudtirol Win 31%
Expected Goals (xG)
Bari1.11
Sudtirol1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Bari Bari
WWDLW
38 GF / 62 GA
Sudtirol Sudtirol
WLDWL
39 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
1
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
20
BTTS Yes
22
20
Over 2.5
16
3
Shots on Goal
3.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Bari Bari 39 matches
Sudtirol Sudtirol 39 matches
Bari Statistic Sudtirol
10 Wins 8
10 Draws 17
19 Losses 14
38 Goals For 39
62 Goals Against 51
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
20 BTTS Yes 22
32 Over 1.5 28
20 Over 2.5 16
8 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 8
15 Failed To Score 14
3 Shots On Goal 3.38
10.13 Total Shots 12.08
3.41 Corners 4.23
45.7% Ball Possession 40.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Sudtirol have the edge after taking the first leg 2-1, leaving Bari needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Bari had more of the ball in the first leg (55% possession compared to 45%). Sudtirol carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 5 shots on goal compared to 1. Bari also attempted more passes (416 to 341) and completed 308. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sudtirol. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Bari Analysis

Bari enter this tie with a season profile built on 40 points from 38 matches, placing them 17 in their league. With 10 wins, 10 draws, and 18 losses plus a goal ratio of 38:60, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on G. Moncini (11 goals), E. Rao (6 goals), C. Gytkjaer (3 goals), with creative support from M. Dorval (7 assists), L. Dickmann (3 assists), G. Moncini (2 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sudtirol Analysis

Sudtirol come into this tie placed 16 in their league with 41 points from 38 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 17 draws, and 13 defeats with goals at 38:48 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on E. Pecorino (9 goals), S. Merkaj (9 goals), D. Casiraghi (4 goals), with creative support from D. Casiraghi (7 assists), S. Molina (4 assists), R. Odogwu (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 3 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Bari won 3 times, Sudtirol won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:10 from Bari's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.38 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.2%)
Predicted formations: Bari 3-5-2 / Sudtirol 3-5-2
H2H summary: Bari wins 3, draws 5, Sudtirol wins 5

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17
Bari Home
38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation