28.07.2026 22:00
Florencio Sola
Referee: Carlos Andres Gariano, Argentina
Banfield
Match Timeline
Sarmiento Junin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
L. Gomez ↔ B. Sepulveda
Banfield
🔄
46'
G. Diaz ↔ J. Renteria
Sarmiento Junin
53'
T. Perrotta · Assist: D. Zalazar
Banfield
🔄
55'
P. Magnin ↔ M. Martinez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
55'
E. Gimenez ↔ J. Herrera
Sarmiento Junin
59'
T. Perrotta · Assist: T. Adoryan
Banfield
🔄
61'
T. Santamaria ↔ G. Gonzalez
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
71'
D. Zalazar ↔ N. Pais
Banfield
🔄
74'
S. Salle ↔ G. Arturia
Sarmiento Junin
🟨
78'
Juan Manuel Insaurralde
Sarmiento Junin
82'
B. Sepulveda
Banfield
🔄
83'
T. Adoryan ↔ F. Alvarez
Banfield
🔄
83'
L. Villegas ↔ S. Esquivel
Banfield
84'
J. Herrera
Sarmiento Junin
🔄
85'
T. Perrotta ↔ J. Acosta
Banfield
86'
J. Marabel
Sarmiento Junin
VAR
87'
Junior Marabel
Sarmiento Junin

Banfield vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 50%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63%
-
BTTS Yes
50%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
67.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Banfield Win 63%
Draw 15.3%
Sarmiento Junin Win 21.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Banfield1.19
Sarmiento Junin0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Banfield Banfield
WWDLW
21 GF / 21 GA
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin
WLDWL
16 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
0.84
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
9
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
8
3.47
Shots on Goal
3.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Banfield Banfield 19 matches
Sarmiento Junin Sarmiento Junin 19 matches
Banfield Statistic Sarmiento Junin
6 Wins 7
4 Draws 1
9 Losses 11
21 Goals For 16
21 Goals Against 25
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 0.84
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
9 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 7
3.47 Shots On Goal 3.53
11.53 Total Shots 10
3.59 Corners 3.71
40.9% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sarmiento Junin. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Banfield expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Sarmiento Junin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarmiento Junin having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Sarmiento Junin arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Banfield Analysis

Banfield are currently 12 in the standings with 18 points from 16 matches. The record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 17:19 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Mendez (6 goals), Rodrigo Auzmendi (4 goals), T. Perrotta (4 goals), with creative support from S. Lopez (4 assists), I. Abraham (4 assists), M. Mendez (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sarmiento Junin Analysis

Sarmiento Junin approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 19 points from 16 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 defeats with a 13:20 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Marabel (6 goals), Diego Churin (2 goals), C. Villalba (1 goals), with creative support from J. Marabel (3 assists), J. Contrera (2 assists), Jonatan Gómez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Banfield won 4 times, Sarmiento Junin won 2 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:8 from Banfield's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.62 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.7%)
Predicted formations: Banfield 5-3-2 / Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
H2H summary: Banfield wins 4, draws 7, Sarmiento Junin wins 2

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W W L W D
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
L W W W D
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
L D D W D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W W D L D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W D D D L
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D W W L
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W W D D D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W L L L D
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
L D D D L
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L L D W
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L D W L W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D D L L L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L L W D D
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
W L W L L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L D D
Knockout Phase