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NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
20.09.2026 12:30
AFAS Stadion(Alkmaar)
Referee: Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands
AZ Alkmaar
Match Timeline
Telstar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
19'
M. Meerdink · Assist: V. Byskov
AZ Alkmaar
🟨
41'
Gerald Alders
Telstar
🔄
46'
V. Byskov ↔ K. Smit
AZ Alkmaar
🔄
46'
G. Alders ↔ R. Oudsten
Telstar
VAR
57'
Kees Smit
AZ Alkmaar
🔄
63'
J. Hardeveld ↔ E. Demircan
Telstar
🔄
71'
R. Daal ↔ A. Oufkir
AZ Alkmaar
🔄
71'
M. Meerdink ↔ J. Hornkamp
AZ Alkmaar
🔄
71'
C. Stengs ↔ Weslley Patati
AZ Alkmaar
🔄
74'
J. Seedorf ↔ A. Martha
Telstar
🔄
83'
R. Mendes ↔ P. Aning
Telstar
🟨
88'
Wouter Goes
AZ Alkmaar
🔄
89'
E. Dijkstra ↔ S. Maikuma
AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AZ Alkmaar Win 71.1%
Draw 3.5%
Telstar Win 25.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
AZ Alkmaar2.19
Telstar1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
WWDLW
30 GF / 15 GA
Telstar Telstar
WLDWL
13 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
2.31
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
2
8
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
7
6.71
Shots on Goal
2.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 13 matches
Telstar Telstar 10 matches
AZ Alkmaar Statistic Telstar
8 Wins 2
3 Draws 2
2 Losses 6
30 Goals For 13
15 Goals Against 20
2.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 2
8 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 4
6.71 Shots On Goal 2.33
18.71 Total Shots 8.67
8.57 Corners 4.5
58% Ball Possession 41.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around AZ Alkmaar's more proactive style and Telstar's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Telstar. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. AZ Alkmaar arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 16 points compared to Telstar in 14 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. AZ Alkmaar come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AZ Alkmaar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Telstar in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Telstar having the stronger overall control.

AZ Alkmaar Analysis

AZ Alkmaar come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 16 points after 6 matches. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 17:6, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Daal (4 goals), M. Meerdink (2 goals), J. Hornkamp (2 goals), with creative support from M. Chávez (3 assists), M. Meerdink (2 assists), C. Stengs (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Telstar Analysis

Telstar sit 14 with 4 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 5:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on R. Koeman (2 goals), A. Soualhia (1 goals), P. Brouwer (1 goals), with creative support from A. Soualhia (1 assists), P. Brouwer (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 3 times, Telstar won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:2 from AZ Alkmaar's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.5%)
Predicted formations: AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1 / Telstar 3-4-2-1
Missing players: AZ Alkmaar 2, Telstar 1
H2H summary: AZ Alkmaar wins 3, draws 0, Telstar wins 0

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 2 0 27:7 20 20
W W W W D
2 8 6 1 1 26:10 16 19
W L W W W
3 8 6 1 1 18:8 10 19
L W D W W
4 8 5 2 1 16:8 8 17
D W W W D
5 8 4 3 1 22:10 12 15
D D W W L
6 8 4 2 2 20:14 6 14
W W D D L
7 8 4 2 2 14:15 -1 14
D W L W W
8 8 2 5 1 19:17 2 11
D D D D L
9 8 3 2 3 16:14 2 11
L D L D W
10 8 2 3 3 11:11 0 9
L W D L D
11 8 2 3 3 13:14 -1 9
D D L D L
12 8 2 2 4 11:19 -8 8
W D W D L
13 8 2 2 4 14:25 -11 8
W L W D L
14 8 1 3 4 13:20 -7 6
D L L D L
15 8 1 3 4 7:14 -7 6
D L D L D
16 8 1 1 6 6:21 -15 4
L L L D L
17 8 0 3 5 9:19 -10 3
D D L L D
18 8 0 2 6 7:23 -16 2
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie