ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Referee: D. Di Marco
Avellino
Match Timeline
Modena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Modena
44'
F. Bagheria
Avellino
🔄
46'
E. Gliozzi ↔ G. Defrel
Modena
🔄
46'
N. Pyyhtia ↔ A. Sersanti
Modena
🟨
49'
Armando Izzo
Avellino
🔄
62'
C. Cauz ↔ G. Beyuku
Modena
🔄
73'
S. Wiafe ↔ T. M. Fabbri
Modena
🔄
76'
R. Insigne ↔ M. Palumbo
Avellino
🔄
79'
P. Mendes ↔ M. De Luca
Modena
🔄
87'
R. Russo ↔ L. Sgarbi
Avellino
🔄
88'
C. Patierno ↔ T. Biasci
Avellino
🔄
90+1'
M. Besaggio ↔ J. Kumi
Avellino

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Avellino Win 71.9%
Draw 0%
Modena Win 28.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Avellino1.05
Modena1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Avellino Avellino
WWDLW
42 GF / 56 GA
Modena Modena
WLDWL
49 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
0.95
19
BTTS Yes
19
17
Over 2.5
19
3.24
Shots on Goal
4.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Avellino Avellino 38 matches
Modena Modena 38 matches
Avellino Statistic Modena
12 Wins 15
10 Draws 10
16 Losses 13
42 Goals For 49
56 Goals Against 36
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 0.95
19 BTTS Yes 19
29 Over 1.5 29
17 Over 2.5 19
9 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 14
14 Failed To Score 10
3.24 Shots On Goal 4.76
9.47 Total Shots 15.37
4.11 Corners 5.47
48.6% Ball Possession 50.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Modena's more proactive style and Avellino's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Avellino expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Modena in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Modena having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Modena. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Avellino Analysis

From their first 37 matches, Avellino have collected 46 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 42:55 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tommaso Biasci (12 goals), Lorenco Šimić (4 goals), M. Palumbo (4 goals), with creative support from D. Sounas (5 assists), Tommaso Biasci (3 assists), M. Palumbo (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Modena Analysis

So far, Modena have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 55 points from 37 matches. Their overall return of 15 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 49:35 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Gliozzi (11 goals), D. Tonoli (5 goals), Francesco Zampano (4 goals), with creative support from S. Santoro (4 assists), L. Magnino (4 assists), M. De Luca (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Avellino won 1 times, Modena won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Avellino's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Avellino 4-3-1-2 / Modena 3-5-2
H2H summary: Avellino wins 1, draws 1, Modena wins 0
Stats
Avellino Avellino
Modena Modena
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
6 Corner Kicks 0
16 Fouls 15
3 Offsides 0
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 1
10 Shots insidebox 3
7 Shots outsidebox 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 8
520 Total passes 382
448 Passes accurate 304
1.01 expected_goals 0.13
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Avellino
Formation
Modena
A. Iannarilli
A. Iannarilli
T. Cancellotti
T. Cancellotti
A. Izzo
A. Izzo
P. Enrici
P. Enrici
F. Missori
F. Missori
D. Sounas
D. Sounas
L. Palmiero
L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio
M. Besaggio
R. Insigne
R. Insigne
C. Patierno
C. Patierno
R. Russo
R. Russo
F. Bagheria
F. Bagheria
D. Adorni
D. Adorni
A. Dellavalle
A. Dellavalle
C. Cauz
C. Cauz
A. Imputato
A. Imputato
S. Wiafe
S. Wiafe
P. Arnaboldi
P. Arnaboldi
N. Pyyhtia
N. Pyyhtia
M. Cotali
M. Cotali
P. Mendes
P. Mendes
E. Gliozzi
E. Gliozzi
Avellino 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
1
A. Iannarilli
G
29
T. Cancellotti
D
4
A. Izzo
🟨 49'
D
56
P. Enrici
D
2
F. Missori
D
24
D. Sounas
M
6
L. Palmiero
M
39
M. Besaggio
↓ 90+1'
M
94
R. Insigne
↓ 76'
M
9
C. Patierno
↓ 88'
F
10
R. Russo
↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
53
J. Sassi
G
30
G. Daffara
G
14
T. Biasci
↑ 88'
F
8
L. Pandolfi
F
18
L. Sgarbi
↑ 87'
F
60
U. Volpe
D
27
A. Le Borgne
M
21
M. Armellino
M
7
G. Tutino
F
20
M. Palumbo
↑ 76'
M
11
L. D'Andrea
F
16
J. Kumi
↑ 90+1'
M
Modena 3-5-2
Starting XI
78
F. Bagheria
⚽ 44'
G
28
D. Adorni
D
25
A. Dellavalle
D
33
C. Cauz
↓ 62'
D
90
A. Imputato
71
S. Wiafe
↓ 73'
M
80
P. Arnaboldi
M
18
N. Pyyhtia
↓ 46' 🟨 13'
M
29
M. Cotali
M
11
P. Mendes
↓ 79'
F
9
E. Gliozzi
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
13
A. Laidani
G
12
A. Maran
G
92
G. Defrel
↑ 46'
F
19
S. Nador
D
99
M. De Luca
↑ 79'
F
5
A. Sersanti
↑ 46'
M
17
Y. Massolin
M
94
F. Guiyong
D
2
G. Beyuku
↑ 62'
D
6
T. M. Fabbri
↑ 73'
M
24
E. Colpo
F
Last matches: Avellino
22.07.26
Fri
Avellino
Scafatese
3
1
W
12.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
0
3
L
01.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Empoli
0
1
L
24.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Bari
2
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Mantova
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Palermo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
1
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sudtirol
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Virtus Entella
2
1
W
07.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Padova
1
0
W
03.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Venezia
0
4
L
28.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Juve Stabia
0
0
D
22.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Reggiana
1
1
D
15.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Pescara
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Frosinone
1
3
L
08.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Monza
1
2
L
31.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Cesena
3
1
W
24.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Spezia
0
1
L
17.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Carrarese
1
2
L
Last matches: Modena
12.05.26
Ser
Modena
Juve Stabia
0
1
L
01.05.26
Ser
Modena
Reggiana
2
1
W
24.04.26
Ser
Modena
Monza
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Modena
Frosinone
1
2
L
14.04.26
Ser
Modena
Catanzaro
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Modena
Sudtirol
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Modena
Bari
1
3
L
21.03.26
Ser
Modena
Mantova
2
1
W
13.03.26
Ser
Modena
Spezia
3
0
W
07.03.26
Ser
Modena
Cesena
0
0
D
03.03.26
Ser
Modena
Virtus Entella
1
2
L
28.02.26
Ser
Modena
Padova
1
2
L
22.02.26
Ser
Modena
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
14.02.26
Ser
Modena
Carrarese
2
0
W
10.02.26
Ser
Modena
Venezia
2
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Modena
Sampdoria
1
2
L
31.01.26
Ser
Modena
Empoli
0
0
D
24.01.26
Ser
Modena
Palermo
0
0
D
18.01.26
Ser
Modena
Pescara
2
0
W
11.01.26
Ser
Modena
Padova
0
2
L
H2H: Avellino vs Modena
08.05.26
H2H
Avellino
Modena
1
0
W
31.08.25
H2H
Modena
Avellino
1
1
D
Last matches: Avellino
22.07.26
Fri
Avellino
Scafatese
3
1
W
24.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Bari
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
1
1
D
18.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sudtirol
3
2
W
07.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Padova
1
0
W
28.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Juve Stabia
0
0
D
15.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Pescara
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Frosinone
1
3
L
31.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Cesena
3
1
W
17.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Carrarese
1
2
L
10.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
2
1
W
20.12.25
Ser
Avellino
Palermo
2
2
D
08.12.25
Ser
Avellino
Venezia
1
1
D
22.11.25
Ser
Avellino
Empoli
0
3
L
01.11.25
Ser
Avellino
Reggiana
4
3
W
25.10.25
Ser
Avellino
Spezia
0
4
L
04.10.25
Ser
Avellino
Mantova
0
0
D
27.09.25
Ser
Avellino
Virtus Entella
2
0
W
12.09.25
Ser
Avellino
Monza
2
1
W
H2H at home: Avellino
08.05.26
H2H
Avellino
Modena
1
0
W
Last matches: Modena
24.04.26
Ser
Modena
Monza
0
1
L
14.04.26
Ser
Modena
Catanzaro
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Modena
Sudtirol
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Modena
Bari
1
3
L
03.03.26
Ser
Modena
Virtus Entella
1
2
L
22.02.26
Ser
Modena
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
10.02.26
Ser
Modena
Venezia
2
0
W
31.01.26
Ser
Modena
Empoli
0
0
D
18.01.26
Ser
Modena
Pescara
2
0
W
11.01.26
Ser
Modena
Padova
0
2
L
13.12.25
Ser
Modena
Spezia
2
0
W
28.11.25
Ser
Modena
Cesena
0
1
L
08.11.25
Ser
Modena
Frosinone
2
2
D
28.10.25
Ser
Modena
Reggiana
0
1
L
19.10.25
Ser
Modena
Palermo
1
1
D
01.10.25
Ser
Modena
Carrarese
0
0
D
20.09.25
Ser
Modena
Mantova
3
1
W
25.08.25
Ser
Modena
Sampdoria
2
0
W
18.08.25
Cop
Modena
Torino
0
1
L
H2H away: Modena
08.05.26
H2H
Avellino
Modena
1
0
L

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation