BRAZIL SERIE B
15.09.2026 00:30
Estádio da Ressacada
Referee: D. C. Muniz dos Santos
Avai
Match Timeline
Vila Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Willian Prado Camargo
Vila Nova
30'
André Luís · Assist: Janderson
Vila Nova
38'
Daniel Penha · Assist: Jean Lucas Figueiredo
Avai
🟨
54'
Douglas da Silva Teixeira
Avai
🔄
63'
Everton Galdino ↔ Emerson
Vila Nova
🔄
63'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Raphael Guimarães de Paula
Vila Nova
🔄
64'
Caio Suassuna Gonçalves Ferreira ↔ Isaias Pereira Da Silva
Avai
🔄
65'
Jean Lucas Figueiredo ↔ Gabriel Cipriano
Avai
🔄
65'
Rildo Goncalves de Amorin Filho ↔ Filipe Gabriel Rios Rodrigues
Avai
🔄
68'
Gabriel Simples ↔ Wenderson
Avai
🔄
82'
Janderson ↔ Ryan lima
Vila Nova
🔄
87'
Douglas Mendes ↔ Willian Maranhão
Vila Nova
🔄
87'
Willian Prado Camargo ↔ Tiago Pagnussat
Vila Nova

Avai vs Vila Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.7%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 66.8%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.7%
1.36
BTTS Yes
66.8%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.57
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Avai Win 50.4%
Draw 5.3%
Vila Nova Win 44.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Avai1.07
Vila Nova1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Avai Avai
WWDLW
28 GF / 35 GA
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WLDWL
39 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
13
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
11
3.33
Shots on Goal
4.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Avai Avai 27 matches
Vila Nova Vila Nova 27 matches
Avai Statistic Vila Nova
8 Wins 14
5 Draws 5
14 Losses 8
28 Goals For 39
35 Goals Against 30
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
13 BTTS Yes 11
18 Over 1.5 19
12 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 8
3.33 Shots On Goal 4.19
11.41 Total Shots 13.26
3.7 Corners 4.81
46.9% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Vila Nova's more proactive style and Avai's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Avai expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Vila Nova in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vila Nova having the stronger overall control. Vila Nova carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 44 points while Avai sit 17 on 29, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vila Nova.

Avai Analysis

Avai sit 17 with 29 points after 26 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 28:34 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Daniel Penha (3 goals), Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Jean Lucas (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (4 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), Daniel Penha (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 44 points after 26 matches. They have recorded 13 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, with a 37:30 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on João Vieira (3 goals), Ryan Lima (3 goals), André Luís (3 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (6 assists), Janderson (5 assists), João Vieira (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Avai won 6 times, Vila Nova won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:17 from Avai's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Avai 3-4-3 / Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Avai wins 6, draws 4, Vila Nova wins 5

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17
Avai Home
29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
Promotion
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