BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio da Ressacada
Referee: Y. Ferreira
Avai
Match Timeline
Cuiaba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
31'
Jean Lucas · Assist: Sorriso
Avai
🔄
46'
Vinicius Peixoto ↔ Kauan Cristtyan
Cuiaba
🔄
52'
Joao Maistro ↔ Guilherme Aquino
Avai
🟨
54'
Léo Gamalho
Avai
🔄
54'
Sorriso ↔ DG
Avai
🟨
57'
Marlon Lopes
Cuiaba
🔄
62'
David Miguel ↔ Luiz Otavio
Cuiaba
🔄
66'
William ↔ Wenderson
Avai
🔄
66'
Leo Gamalho ↔ Walace Franca
Avai
🟨
69'
Jean Lucas
Avai
🔄
73'
Pepe ↔ Weverson
Cuiaba
🔄
73'
Calebe Costa ↔ Victor Barbara
Cuiaba
🔄
79'
Luiz Henrique ↔ Paulo Vitor
Avai
🔄
79'
Thayllon ↔ Jamerson
Avai
🔄
80'
Marlon ↔ Eric Melo
Cuiaba
🔄
81'
Vitor Mendes ↔ Marcos Junior
Cuiaba

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68.6%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68.6%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.3%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Avai Win 19%
Draw 12.4%
Cuiaba Win 68.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Avai0.83
Cuiaba1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Avai Avai
WWDLW
14 GF / 20 GA
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WLDWL
9 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
0.69
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
0.46
7
BTTS Yes
3
7
Over 2.5
1
3.23
Shots on Goal
4.15

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Avai Avai 13 matches
Cuiaba Cuiaba 13 matches
Avai Statistic Cuiaba
2 Wins 4
4 Draws 7
7 Losses 2
14 Goals For 9
20 Goals Against 6
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 0.69
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 0.46
7 BTTS Yes 3
10 Over 1.5 6
7 Over 2.5 1
3 Over 3.5 0
4 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 7
3.23 Shots On Goal 4.15
10.77 Total Shots 11.23
3.46 Corners 3.46
50.9% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Cuiaba's more proactive style and Avai's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Avai expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cuiaba in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cuiaba having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cuiaba. Avai have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Avai Analysis

Avai approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 10 points from 12 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 12:17 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Walace Franca (3 goals), Luiz Henrique (2 goals), Paulo Vitor (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (2 assists), Thayllon (2 assists), Allyson (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cuiaba Analysis

With 16 points from 12 games and a place of 14, Cuiaba still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, together with goals at 8:6, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Hernandes (2 goals), Joao Basso (2 goals), Eric (1 goals), with creative support from Pepê (2 assists), Hernandes (1 assists), Joao Basso (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Avai won 2 times, Cuiaba won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:9 from Avai's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
Predicted formations: Avai 4-2-3-1 / Cuiaba 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Avai wins 2, draws 1, Cuiaba wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16
Avai Home
25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
Promotion
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