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BRAZIL › SERIE B
18.10.2026 19:00
Estádio da Ressacada
Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

Avai vs Athletic Club Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.5%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.5%
1.36 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.45 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.4%
1.18 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Avai Win 47.3%
Draw 11.5%
Athletic Club Win 41.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Avai1.07
Athletic Club1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Avai Avai
WWDLW
33 GF / 43 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
40 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
16
BTTS Yes
20
15
Over 2.5
14
3.21
Shots on Goal
3.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Avai Avai 33 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 33 matches
Avai Statistic Athletic Club
10 Wins 10
6 Draws 13
17 Losses 10
33 Goals For 40
43 Goals Against 39
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
16 BTTS Yes 20
22 Over 1.5 26
15 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 8
11 Failed To Score 8
3.21 Shots On Goal 3.52
10.97 Total Shots 12.03
3.88 Corners 4.27
45.9% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Athletic Club's more proactive style and Avai's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Athletic Club. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Avai expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Athletic Club in 3-5-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Athletic Club having the stronger overall control. Avai have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Avai Analysis

Avai approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 33 points from 32 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 17 defeats with a 32:43 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Daniel Penha (5 goals), Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Jean Lucas (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (6 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), Daniel Penha (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club sit 15 with 42 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 12 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 38:37, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (4 goals), W. Aponza (4 goals), with creative support from Max (4 assists), Kauan (3 assists), Ian Luccas (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Avai won 1 times, Athletic Club won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:6 from Avai's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.5%)
Predicted formations: Avai 4-4-2 / Athletic Club 3-5-1-1
H2H summary: Avai wins 1, draws 0, Athletic Club wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 34 17 10 7 41:23 18 61
D D W W W
3 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
4 34 16 12 6 41:29 12 60
W D W D D
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 34 14 12 8 42:32 10 54
D D L W W
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 34 13 12 9 45:37 8 51
L D W W L
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 34 13 9 12 44:46 -2 48
L L L L D
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 34 11 10 13 37:42 -5 43
D L W W D
14 33 10 13 10 40:39 1 43
D L L D D
15 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17
Avai Home
33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 34 5 5 24 22:54 -32 20
W L L L L
20 34 3 5 26 19:74 -55 14
D L L L L
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