FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Referee: F. Letexier
Auxerre
Match Timeline
Nice
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
S. Diop
Nice
🔄
13'
B. Okoh ↔ C. Akpa
Auxerre
27'
S. Mara
Auxerre
🔄
59'
M. Bard ↔ A. Abdi
Nice
🔄
59'
S. Abdul Samed ↔ T. Louchet
Nice
70'
L. Sinayoko · Assist: N. Ahamada
Auxerre
🔄
71'
L. Sy ↔ M. Senaya
Auxerre
🔄
76'
M. Sanson ↔ Kevin
Nice
🔄
76'
M. Cho ↔ E. Wahi
Nice
🔄
81'
S. Diop ↔ I. Jansson
Nice
🔄
86'
S. Mara ↔ J. Casimir
Auxerre
🔄
86'
D. Namaso ↔ L. Coulibaly
Auxerre
🟨
90+5'
Josué Casimir
Auxerre

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Auxerre Win 39%
Draw 21.3%
Nice Win 39.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Auxerre1.25
Nice1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Auxerre Auxerre
WWDLW
31 GF / 45 GA
Nice Nice
WLDWL
51 GF / 81 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.72
14
BTTS Yes
27
15
Over 2.5
24
3.55
Shots on Goal
3.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Auxerre Auxerre 33 matches
Nice Nice 47 matches
Auxerre Statistic Nice
6 Wins 11
10 Draws 12
17 Losses 24
31 Goals For 51
45 Goals Against 81
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.72
14 BTTS Yes 27
20 Over 1.5 37
15 Over 2.5 24
9 Over 3.5 17
8 Clean Sheets 7
16 Failed To Score 16
3.55 Shots On Goal 3.6
10.94 Total Shots 11.17
4.76 Corners 5.3
44.1% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nice. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Auxerre expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nice in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nice having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Auxerre Analysis

Auxerre approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 28 points from 32 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 30:43, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Sinayoko (9 goals), Bryan Okoh (3 goals), D. Namaso (3 goals), with creative support from L. Sinayoko (4 assists), D. Namaso (3 assists), S. Mara (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nice Analysis

Nice approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 31 points from 32 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 10 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 36:58 goal record continues to suggest poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking burden often falls on Sofiane Diop (7 goals), E. Wahi (5 goals), M. Cho (4 goals), with creative support from J. Clauss (6 assists), M. Cho (3 assists), Sofiane Diop (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Auxerre won 4 times, Nice won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:14 from Auxerre's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.7%)
Predicted formations: Auxerre 4-2-3-1 / Nice 5-4-1
Missing players: Auxerre 4, Nice 3
H2H summary: Auxerre wins 4, draws 4, Nice wins 4

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16
Nice Away
34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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