🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
03.05.2026 21:30
Q2 Stadium
Referee: Jon Freemon, USA
Austin
Match Timeline
St. Louis City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
36'
Guilherme Biro
Austin
🟨
51'
Timo Baumgartl
St. Louis City
🔄
58'
E. Lowen ↔ S. Cordova
St. Louis City
🔄
58'
L. MacNaughton ↔ M. Mbacke
St. Louis City
🔄
66'
I. Sanchez ↔ D. Pereira
Austin
🟨
68'
Christopher Durkin
St. Louis City
69'
C. Ramirez · Assist: D. Pereira
Austin
🔄
73'
S. Becher ↔ F. Fall
St. Louis City
🔄
73'
M. Perez ↔ M. Joyner
St. Louis City
81'
M. Uzuni · Assist: C. Ramirez
Austin
🔄
82'
Guilherme Biro ↔ J. Bell
Austin
🔄
82'
C. Ramirez ↔ O. Wolff
Austin
🟨
87'
Brendan Hines-Ike
Austin
🔄
87'
C. Durkin ↔ B. McSorley
St. Louis City
🔄
89'
F. Torres ↔ C. Fodrey
Austin
🔄
89'
M. Uzuni ↔ B. Vazquez
Austin
🟨
90+5'
Brendan McSorley
St. Louis City

Austin vs St. Louis City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 89.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
89.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Austin Win 89.7%
Draw 0%
St. Louis City Win 10.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Austin1.38
St. Louis City1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Austin Austin
WWDLW
17 GF / 26 GA
St. Louis City St. Louis City
WLDWL
13 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.85
8
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
6
3.9
Shots on Goal
4.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Austin Austin 16 matches
St. Louis City St. Louis City 13 matches
Austin Statistic St. Louis City
3 Wins 2
6 Draws 4
7 Losses 7
17 Goals For 13
26 Goals Against 24
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.85
8 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 4
3.9 Shots On Goal 4.78
10.5 Total Shots 14
4.8 Corners 7.11
46.7% Ball Possession 51.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward St. Louis City. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Austin expected to line up in 4-4-2 and St. Louis City in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St. Louis City having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Austin Analysis

From their first 10 matches, Austin have collected 10 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 14:19 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Agyemang (3 goals), M. Uzuni (3 goals), C. Ramirez (2 goals), with creative support from F. Torres (4 assists), J. Rosales (1 assists), J. Gallagher (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

St. Louis City Analysis

With 6 points from 9 games and a place of 14, St. Louis City still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats with a 9:16 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Hartel (3 goals), B. McSorley (1 goals), Christopher Durkin (1 goals), with creative support from S. Becher (2 assists), D. Edelman (2 assists), L. MacNaughton (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Austin won 2 times, St. Louis City won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:19 from Austin's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Austin 4-4-2 / St. Louis City 3-4-3
Missing players: Austin 4, St. Louis City 5
H2H summary: Austin wins 2, draws 1, St. Louis City wins 6

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)