Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
100%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
85.7%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
82%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Auckland
Melbourne City
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Auckland
26 matches
Melbourne City
26 matches
| Auckland | Statistic | Melbourne City |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wins | 10 |
| 9 | Draws | 8 |
| 6 | Losses | 8 |
| 42 | Goals For | 33 |
| 29 | Goals Against | 33 |
| 1.62 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.27 |
| 1.12 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.27 |
| 18 | BTTS Yes | 13 |
| 22 | Over 1.5 | 18 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 12 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 7 |
| 7 | Clean Sheets | 10 |
| 2 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 5.23 | Shots On Goal | 4.23 |
| 15.92 | Total Shots | 12.96 |
| 5.27 | Corners | 5.65 |
| 50.7% | Ball Possession | 55% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between Auckland's more proactive style and Melbourne City's more cautious structure, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Auckland hold an advantage after winning the first leg 3-0, so Melbourne City now have a 3-goal deficit to overturn. In the previous meeting, Melbourne City controlled more possession in the first leg (57% against 43%). Auckland were also more accurate in attack, recording 9 shots on target to 2. Melbourne City circulated the ball more often, making 398 passes to 291 and completing 306. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Melbourne City. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Auckland expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Melbourne City in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Melbourne City having the stronger overall control. Melbourne City look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.
Auckland enter this tie with a season profile built on 42 points from 26 matches, placing them 3 in their league. With 11 wins, 9 draws, and 6 losses plus a goal ratio of 42:29, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Sam Cosgrove (11 goals), J. Randall (9 goals), Lachlan Brook (8 goals), with creative support from F. De Vries (7 assists), J. Randall (6 assists), Sam Cosgrove (4 assists), while defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without O. Sail, F. De Vries, J. Brimmer, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
Melbourne City enter this tie with a season profile built on 38 points from 26 matches, placing them 6 in their league. With 10 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses plus a goal ratio of 33:33, they bring very strong form with results showing strong momentum into this tie. Going forward they rely on M. Caputo (8 goals), Marcus Younis (7 goals), M. Memeti (4 goals), with creative support from A. Kuen (4 assists), Marcus Younis (3 assists), D. Arzani (2 assists), while defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with A. Lopane, R. Teague, S. Souprayen unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Auckland won 2 times, Melbourne City won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:5 from Auckland's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
Auckland
6
4
6
10
5
3
Lineups
Auckland
Sydney
Auckland
Adelaide United
Auckland
Adelaide United
Auckland
Sydney
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
Auckland
Melbourne Victory
Auckland
Adelaide United
Auckland
Macarthur
Auckland
Newcastle Jets
Auckland
Perth Glory
Auckland
Melbourne City
Auckland
Wellington Phoenix
Auckland
Sydney
Auckland
Sydney
Auckland
Perth Glory
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
Auckland
Melbourne City
Auckland
Brisbane Roar
Auckland
Macarthur
Auckland
Newcastle Jets
Melbourne City
Adelaide United
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne City
Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
Melbourne City
Perth Glory
Melbourne City
Sydney
Melbourne City
Auckland
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne City
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Auckland
Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
Sydney
Melbourne City
Perth Glory
Melbourne City
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets
Auckland
Sydney
Auckland
Adelaide United
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
Auckland
Melbourne Victory
Auckland
Macarthur
Auckland
Perth Glory
Auckland
Melbourne City
Auckland
Sydney
Auckland
Central Coast Mariners
Auckland
Newcastle Jets
Auckland
Wellington Phoenix
Auckland
Newcastle Jets
Auckland
Brisbane Roar
Auckland
Adelaide United
Auckland
Western Sydney Wanderers
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
Perth Glory
Melbourne City
Sydney
Melbourne City
Auckland
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne City
Macarthur
Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets
Melbourne City
Central Coast Mariners
Melbourne City
Adelaide United
Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 16 | 48 |
W
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 2 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 10 | 43 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 |
Auckland
Home
|
26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 13 | 42 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
| 4 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 11 | 40 |
W
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 8 | 39 |
D
D
W
D
L
|
|
| 6 |
Melbourne City
Away
|
26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 0 | 38 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
| 7 | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | -7 | 34 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | -12 | 33 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | -7 | 32 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 10 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | -7 | 31 |
W
D
W
D
D
|
|
| 11 | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | -9 | 26 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 12 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | -16 | 21 |
L
L
L
L
L
|