ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Referee: Bryan Loayza, Ecuador
Aucas
Match Timeline
Universidad Catolica
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
M. Alonso · Assist: A. Rodriguez
Universidad Catolica
19'
A. Mena
Aucas
VAR
23'
Marcos Sevillano
Universidad Catolica
🟥
24'
Marcos Sevillano
Universidad Catolica
🔄
59'
A. Rodriguez ↔ A. Londono
Universidad Catolica
🔄
59'
F. Martinez ↔ R. Troya
Universidad Catolica
64'
A. Mena
Aucas
🔄
74'
J. Fajardo ↔ M. Diaz
Universidad Catolica
🔄
74'
M. Alonso ↔ E. Rose
Universidad Catolica
🔄
78'
S. Porozo ↔ B. Miranda
Aucas
🔄
78'
A. Mena ↔ S. Tapiero
Aucas
🟨
81'
Ayrton Preciado
Aucas
🔄
86'
L. Moreno ↔ B. Palacios
Universidad Catolica
🔄
90'
E. Preciado ↔ L. Arroyo
Aucas

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 43.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
43.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aucas Win 51.5%
Draw 7.3%
Universidad Catolica Win 41.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aucas1.04
Universidad Catolica1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aucas Aucas
WWDLW
15 GF / 12 GA
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WLDWL
26 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.73
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1
5
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
6
5.17
Shots on Goal
4.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aucas Aucas 14 matches
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 15 matches
Aucas Statistic Universidad Catolica
6 Wins 7
4 Draws 4
4 Losses 4
15 Goals For 26
12 Goals Against 15
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1
5 BTTS Yes 7
6 Over 1.5 11
3 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 2
5.17 Shots On Goal 4.79
14.83 Total Shots 13.5
5.83 Corners 4.64
57.5% Ball Possession 58.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aucas expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Universidad Catolica in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universidad Catolica having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Universidad Catolica. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Aucas Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 19 points from 12 games, Aucas bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 14:11, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through B. Miranda (6 goals), R. Quinonez (3 goals), A. Mena (1 goals), with creative support from Santiago Morales (2 assists), A. Mena (1 assists), Piero Guzmán (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Universidad Catolica approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 22 points after 12 outings. With 6 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by B. Palacios (5 goals), E. Clavijo (4 goals), Jhon Chancellor (2 goals), with creative support from Mauro Díaz (5 assists), Jhon Chancellor (2 assists), E. Mejia (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aucas won 5 times, Universidad Catolica won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:27 from Aucas's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 14 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.7%)
Predicted formations: Aucas 5-4-1 / Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Aucas wins 5, draws 6, Universidad Catolica wins 4
Stats
Aucas Aucas
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
0
5 Corner Kicks 3
17 Fouls 8
4 Offsides 0
71% Ball Possession 29%
13 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Goal 2
4 Shots off Goal 2
3 Blocked Shots 0
7 Shots insidebox 2
6 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
643 Total passes 255
582 Passes accurate 192
1.02 expected_goals 0.31
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Aucas
Formation
Universidad Catolica
H. Piedra
H. Piedra
A. Zova
A. Zova
L. Gustavino
L. Gustavino
J. Ontaneda
J. Ontaneda
S. Morales
S. Morales
A. L. Spina
A. L. Spina
E. Preciado
E. Preciado
P. Guzman
P. Guzman
A. Mena
⚽ 2
A. Mena
R. Quinonez
R. Quinonez
S. Porozo
S. Porozo
R. Romo
R. Romo
G. Anangono
G. Anangono
M. Sevillano
M. Sevillano
Jhon Chancellor
Jhon Chancellor
E. Valencia
E. Valencia
F. Martinez
F. Martinez
L. Moreno
L. Moreno
E. Mejia
E. Mejia
A. Rodriguez
🎯
A. Rodriguez
M. Alonso
M. Alonso
J. Fajardo
J. Fajardo
Aucas 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
13
H. Piedra
G
37
A. Zova
D
16
L. Gustavino
D
3
J. Ontaneda
D
2
S. Morales
D
6
A. L. Spina
M
10
E. Preciado
↓ 90' 🟨 81'
M
21
P. Guzman
M
18
A. Mena
⚽ 19' ⚽ 64' ↓ 78'
M
28
R. Quinonez
M
33
S. Porozo
↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
1
I. Chaves
G
7
B. Miranda
↑ 78'
F
29
L. Arroyo
↑ 90'
F
14
S. Tapiero
↑ 78'
M
89
A. Sosa
F
20
D. S. Espinosa
F
31
B. Carabali
D
55
V. Olaya
D
57
M. Vera
F
11
R. Bolanos
Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
R. Romo
G
29
G. Anangono
D
19
M. Sevillano
🟥 24'
D
4
Jhon Chancellor
D
44
E. Valencia
D
10
F. Martinez
↓ 59'
M
15
L. Moreno
↓ 86'
M
30
E. Mejia
M
23
A. Rodriguez
🎯 9' ↓ 59'
M
32
M. Alonso
⚽ 9' ↓ 74'
M
7
J. Fajardo
↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
12
J. Lara
G
6
D. Palacios
D
5
J. Cacciabue
M
9
A. Londono
↑ 59'
F
37
C. Medina
D
24
D. Nazareno
28
M. Diaz
↑ 74'
M
18
B. Palacios
↑ 86'
F
13
E. Rose
↑ 74'
F
26
S. Yanez
F
17
R. Troya
↑ 59'
M
Last matches: Aucas
23.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
16.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
12.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
08.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
26.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Manta FC
3
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Libertad
2
3
L
28.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
Aucas
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Leones del Norte
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
0
W
24.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
3
2
W
19.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
2
2
D
08.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
28.02.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
22.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
2
1
W
18.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
10.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
06.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
2
3
L
31.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Orense SC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Delfin SC
2
2
D
01.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
27.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
0
1
L
24.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Macara
4
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
2
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
09.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
4
1
W
22.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
3
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
H2H: Aucas vs Universidad Catolica
09.05.26
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
03.08.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
6
2
L
16.04.25
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
07.03.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
0
0
D
09.11.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
3
2
L
19.05.24
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
2
D
17.08.23
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
2
2
D
19.03.23
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
4
1
W
05.09.22
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
2
W
21.04.22
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
16.10.21
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
01.05.21
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
1
D
18.12.20
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
16.08.20
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
3
1
L
20.07.19
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
1
D
Last matches: Aucas
16.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
08.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
26.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Manta FC
3
1
W
28.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Delfin SC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
W
24.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
3
2
W
19.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
08.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
08.02.26
Fri
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
H2H at home: Aucas
09.05.26
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
16.04.25
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
19.05.24
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
2
D
19.03.23
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
4
1
W
21.04.22
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
16.10.21
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
18.12.20
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
18.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
W
10.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
31.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Orense SC
2
1
W
27.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
15.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
06.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
1
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Universidad Catolica
Sporting Cristal
1
3
L
H2H away: Universidad Catolica
09.05.26
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
L
16.04.25
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
L
19.05.24
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
2
D
19.03.23
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
4
1
L
21.04.22
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
3
2
L
16.10.21
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
1
2
W
18.12.20
H2H
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 17 1 3 52:20 32 52
W W W W W
2 21 10 5 6 33:19 14 35
W W W L L
3
Aucas Home
21 10 5 6 23:21 2 35
L W L W W
4 21 9 7 5 23:16 7 34
L W D D W
5 21 9 5 7 24:21 3 32
W L W W W
6 21 8 5 8 20:17 3 29
D L L D L
7 21 7 7 7 22:21 1 28
D W D W W
8 21 8 4 9 19:26 -7 28
L L D L L
9 21 7 6 8 19:23 -4 27
D W D W L
10 21 7 5 9 25:29 -4 26
W L L D L
11 21 6 7 8 27:31 -4 25
D W L L W
12 21 7 7 7 18:24 -6 25
D L W D D
13 21 6 6 9 19:26 -7 24
W L W D L
14 21 7 2 12 19:24 -5 23
L L L L W
15 21 6 5 10 13:20 -7 23
L W W L D
16 21 3 5 13 8:26 -18 14
D L L D L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs