ECUADOR LIGA PRO
08.08.2026 21:30
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Referee: Alex Fabricio Cajas Torres, Ecuador
Aucas
Match Timeline
Leones del Norte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Nicolás Monserrat
Leones del Norte
24'
E. Preciado
Aucas
31'
R. Bolanos · Assist: E. Preciado
Aucas
🟨
45+1'
Emiliano Griffa
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
A. Zova ↔ M. Burdisso
Aucas
🔄
46'
M. De La Cruz ↔ C. Velez
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
E. Griffa ↔ T. Amilivia
Leones del Norte
49'
R. Bolanos · Assist: E. Preciado
Aucas
🔄
58'
C. Solano ↔ B. Kreiman
Leones del Norte
🔄
63'
E. Preciado ↔ M. Vera
Aucas
🔄
67'
D. Pazmino ↔ E. Pepinos
Leones del Norte
🔄
74'
R. Bolanos ↔ J. M. Andrade
Aucas
🔄
74'
A. Mena ↔ S. Tapiero
Aucas
🔄
80'
R. Quinonez ↔ B. Carabali
Aucas
🔄
85'
P. Madero ↔ T. Coppo
Leones del Norte
🟨
87'
Piero Guzmán
Aucas

Aucas vs Leones del Norte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 42.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
42.7%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aucas Win 42.7%
Draw 17.7%
Leones del Norte Win 39.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aucas1.03
Leones del Norte1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aucas Aucas
WWDLW
27 GF / 26 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
24 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
9
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
7
4.39
Shots on Goal
3.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aucas Aucas 25 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 23 matches
Aucas Statistic Leones del Norte
12 Wins 8
5 Draws 8
8 Losses 7
27 Goals For 24
26 Goals Against 22
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
9 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 2
11 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 6
4.39 Shots On Goal 3.78
12.26 Total Shots 12.52
5.04 Corners 4.04
50.6% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Leones del Norte's more proactive style and Aucas's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Aucas have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aucas expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Leones del Norte in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leones del Norte having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Leones del Norte.

Aucas Analysis

Aucas sit 4 with 35 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 24:25 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Bruno Miranda (5 goals), Andres Mena (3 goals), Snayder Porozo (3 goals), with creative support from Piero Guzmán (3 assists), Andres Mena (2 assists), Santiago Morales (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leones del Norte Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Leones del Norte have collected 31 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 23:21 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Darío Pazmiño (3 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), Darío Pazmiño (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Aucas won 3 times, Leones del Norte won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:1 from Aucas's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.4%)
Predicted formations: Aucas 4-1-4-1 / Leones del Norte 5-3-2
H2H summary: Aucas wins 3, draws 0, Leones del Norte wins 0

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4
Aucas Home
30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs