ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Referee: A. Torres Cajax
Aucas
Match Timeline
Leones del Norte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Nicolás Monserrat
Leones del Norte
24'
Ayrton Preciado
Aucas
31'
Alexander Bolaños · Assist: Ayrton Preciado
Aucas
🟨
45+1'
Emiliano Griffa
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
Alex Zova ↔ Mateo Burdisso
Aucas
🔄
46'
Maiky De La Cruz ↔ Charles Vélez
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
Emiliano Griffa ↔ Thomas Amilivia
Leones del Norte
48'
Alexander Bolaños · Assist: Ayrton Preciado
Aucas
🔄
58'
Cristhian Solano ↔ Brian Kreiman
Leones del Norte
🔄
63'
Ayrton Preciado ↔ Maverick Vera
Aucas
🔄
67'
Darío Pazmiño ↔ Elián Pepinós
Leones del Norte
🔄
74'
Alexander Bolaños ↔ José Andrade
Aucas
🔄
74'
Andres Mena ↔ Stiven Tapiero
Aucas
🔄
80'
Ederson Quiñónez ↔ Byron Carabalí
Aucas
🔄
85'
Patricio Madero ↔ Tobías Coppo
Leones del Norte
🟨
87'
Piero Guzmán
Aucas

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 42.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
42.7%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aucas Win 42.7%
Draw 17.7%
Leones del Norte Win 39.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aucas1.03
Leones del Norte1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aucas Aucas
WWDLW
27 GF / 26 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
24 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
9
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
7
4.39
Shots on Goal
3.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aucas Aucas 25 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 23 matches
Aucas Statistic Leones del Norte
12 Wins 8
5 Draws 8
8 Losses 7
27 Goals For 24
26 Goals Against 22
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
9 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 2
11 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 6
4.39 Shots On Goal 3.78
12.26 Total Shots 12.52
5.04 Corners 4.04
50.6% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Leones del Norte's more proactive style and Aucas's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Aucas have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aucas expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Leones del Norte in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leones del Norte having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Leones del Norte.

Aucas Analysis

Aucas sit 4 with 35 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 24:25 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Bruno Miranda (5 goals), Andres Mena (3 goals), Snayder Porozo (3 goals), with creative support from Piero Guzmán (3 assists), Andres Mena (2 assists), Santiago Morales (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leones del Norte Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Leones del Norte have collected 31 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 23:21 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Darío Pazmiño (3 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), Darío Pazmiño (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Aucas won 3 times, Leones del Norte won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:1 from Aucas's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.4%)
Predicted formations: Aucas 4-1-4-1 / Leones del Norte 5-3-2
H2H summary: Aucas wins 3, draws 0, Leones del Norte wins 0
Stats
Aucas Aucas
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
4 Corner Kicks 6
12 Fouls 5
0 Offsides 1
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Goal 5
1 Shots off Goal 3
2 Blocked Shots 2
3 Shots insidebox 7
4 Shots outsidebox 3
5 Goalkeeper Saves 1
465 Total passes 465
401 Passes accurate 381
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Aucas
Formation
Leones del Norte
Hamilton Piedra
Hamilton Piedra
Alex Zova
Alex Zova
Luis Gustavino
Luis Gustavino
Santiago Morales
Santiago Morales
Ariel García
Ariel García
Agostino Spina
Agostino Spina
Ayrton Preciado
🎯
Ayrton Preciado
Piero Guzmán
Piero Guzmán
Andres Mena
Andres Mena
Ederson Quiñónez
Ederson Quiñónez
Alexander Bolaños
⚽ 2
Alexander Bolaños
Leonel Nazareno
Leonel Nazareno
Jonathan Arroyo
Jonathan Arroyo
Nicolás Monserrat
Nicolás Monserrat
Jordan Morán
Jordan Morán
Maiky De La Cruz
Maiky De La Cruz
Patricio Madero
Patricio Madero
Emiliano Griffa
Emiliano Griffa
Cristhian Solano
Cristhian Solano
Darío Pazmiño
Darío Pazmiño
Segundo Portocarrero
Segundo Portocarrero
Juan Anangonó
Juan Anangonó
Aucas 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
13
Hamilton Piedra
G
37
Alex Zova
↓ 46'
D
16
Luis Gustavino
D
2
Santiago Morales
D
63
Ariel García
D
6
Agostino Spina
M
10
Ayrton Preciado
⚽ 24' 🎯 31' 🎯 48' ↓ 63'
M
21
Piero Guzmán
🟨 87'
M
18
Andres Mena
↓ 74'
M
28
Ederson Quiñónez
↓ 80'
M
11
Alexander Bolaños
⚽ 31' ⚽ 48' ↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
4
Mateo Burdisso
↑ 46'
D
57
Maverick Vera
↑ 63'
F
14
Stiven Tapiero
↑ 74'
M
7
José Andrade
↑ 74'
F
31
Byron Carabalí
↑ 80'
D
1
Iván Chaves
G
5
Thiago Serpa
M
20
Diego Espinosa
F
Leones del Norte 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
45
Leonel Nazareno
G
4
Jonathan Arroyo
D
23
Nicolás Monserrat
🟨 16'
D
2
Jordan Morán
D
16
Maiky De La Cruz
↓ 46'
D
29
Patricio Madero
↓ 85'
M
6
Emiliano Griffa
↓ 46' 🟨 45+1'
M
99
Cristhian Solano
↓ 58'
M
70
Darío Pazmiño
↓ 67'
M
34
Segundo Portocarrero
M
40
Juan Anangonó
F
Substitutes
8
Charles Vélez
↑ 46'
M
17
Thomas Amilivia
↑ 46'
F
25
Brian Kreiman
↑ 58'
D
19
Elián Pepinós
↑ 67'
M
5
Tobías Coppo
↑ 85'
M
22
Jeferson Arroyo
G
14
Anthony Folleco
D
50
Miguel Caicedo
D
3
Frixon Joel Vargas Manzaba
D
13
Jorge Cabeza
M
55
Ronny Borja
M
27
Nestor Caicedo
F
Last matches: Aucas
23.08.26
Lig
Aucas
Delfin SC
1
0
W
17.08.26
Lig
Aucas
LDU de Quito
0
1
L
02.08.26
Lig
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
4
L
23.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
16.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
12.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
08.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
26.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Manta FC
3
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Barcelona SC
0
3
L
09.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
02.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Libertad
2
3
L
28.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
Aucas
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Leones del Norte
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
0
W
24.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
3
2
W
Last matches: Leones del Norte
22.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
15.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
2
0
W
02.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
18.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
H2H: Aucas vs Leones del Norte
08.08.26
H2H
Aucas
Leones del Norte
3
0
W
17.04.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
W
12.06.22
H2H
Leones del Norte
Aucas
1
4
W
Last matches: Aucas
17.08.26
Lig
Aucas
LDU de Quito
0
1
L
26.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Macara
1
4
L
16.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
08.07.26
Lig
Aucas
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
26.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Manta FC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Aucas
Universidad Catolica
2
1
W
28.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Delfin SC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Aucas
Emelec
2
0
W
24.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Orense SC
3
2
W
19.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
08.03.26
Lig
Aucas
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lig
Aucas
Mushuc Runa SC
1
1
D
08.02.26
Fri
Aucas
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
H2H at home: Aucas
08.08.26
H2H
Aucas
Leones del Norte
3
0
W
Last matches: Leones del Norte
15.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
2
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
H2H away: Leones del Norte
08.08.26
H2H
Aucas
Leones del Norte
3
0
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 22 1 3 64:26 38 67
W W W W W
2
Aucas Home
26 13 5 8 30:26 4 44
W L W W L
3 26 12 7 7 45:23 22 43
W D L W D
4 25 12 6 7 33:25 8 42
D W W W W
5 26 12 5 9 26:20 6 41
W W L W W
6 26 10 9 7 28:20 8 39
W D L D L
7 26 9 8 9 28:28 0 35
L W L D W
8 25 9 7 9 28:29 -1 34
D W W W W
9 26 8 9 9 32:34 -2 33
D D W W L
10 26 8 9 9 25:29 -4 33
W D D L D
11 26 9 5 12 22:32 -10 32
D L L L W
12 26 8 6 12 30:39 -9 30
L W D L L
13 26 8 8 10 21:31 -10 29
L W D L L
14 26 8 2 16 23:37 -14 26
L L L L W
15 26 6 6 14 17:28 -11 24
L L D L L
16 26 4 5 17 12:37 -25 17
L L W L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs