ECUADOR LIGA PRO
07.09.2026 00:00
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Referee: L. Quinonez
Aucas
Match Timeline
Barcelona SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
Michael Carcelen · Assist: Andres Mena
Aucas
🟥
45+7'
Michael Carcelen
Aucas
🔄
45'
Tomás Martínez ↔ Damián Díaz
Barcelona SC
🔄
45'
Tomás Rodríguez ↔ Darío Benedetto
Barcelona SC
🟨
59'
Jefferson Intriago
Barcelona SC
🔄
64'
Luis Cano ↔ Erick Mendoza
Barcelona SC
🔄
64'
Jefferson Intriago ↔ Jhonny Quinonez
Barcelona SC
🟨
71'
Hamilton Piedra
Aucas
🟨
73'
Darío Benedetto
Barcelona SC
🔄
76'
Jonathan Perlaza ↔ Johan garcia
Barcelona SC
🔄
82'
Ayrton Preciado ↔ Luis Arroyo
Aucas
🔄
88'
Andres Mena ↔ Maverick Vera
Aucas
90+11'
Jhonny Quinonez
Barcelona SC
🟨
90+10'
Luis Arroyo
Aucas
🟨
90+8'
Alex Rodrigo Zova Cacierra
Aucas
VAR
90+5'
Matias Gonzalo Lugo
Barcelona SC
🔄
90+2'
Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo ↔ Thiago Serpa
Aucas

Aucas vs Barcelona SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63%
Odds 1.71
BTTS
Yes
Probability 66.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.24
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63%
1.71
BTTS Yes
66.8%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.24
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.7%
1.37
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Aucas Win 63%
Draw 8.6%
Barcelona SC Win 28.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aucas1.05
Barcelona SC0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aucas Aucas
WWDLW
33 GF / 28 GA
Barcelona SC Barcelona SC
WLDWL
40 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
0.95
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
10
BTTS Yes
17
10
Over 2.5
15
4.21
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aucas Aucas 30 matches
Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 42 matches
Aucas Statistic Barcelona SC
15 Wins 16
6 Draws 11
9 Losses 15
33 Goals For 40
28 Goals Against 41
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
10 BTTS Yes 17
15 Over 1.5 25
10 Over 2.5 15
5 Over 3.5 3
14 Clean Sheets 15
8 Failed To Score 14
4.21 Shots On Goal 3.5
11.96 Total Shots 12.29
4.86 Corners 3.97
50.9% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Aucas expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Barcelona SC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Barcelona SC having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Barcelona SC.

Aucas Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 44 points from 26 games, Aucas bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 13 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 30:26, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Bruno Miranda (5 goals), Ayrton Preciado (3 goals), Andres Mena (3 goals), with creative support from Ayrton Preciado (3 assists), Piero Guzmán (3 assists), Andres Mena (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Barcelona SC Analysis

Barcelona SC sit 6 with 39 points after 27 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses, while the 28:22 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Darío Benedetto (4 goals), Jhonny Quiñónez (2 goals), Milton Celiz (2 goals), with creative support from Tomás Martínez (2 assists), Darío Benedetto (1 assists), Jhonny Quiñónez (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aucas won 7 times, Barcelona SC won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:19 from Aucas's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.4%)
Predicted formations: Aucas 4-1-4-1 / Barcelona SC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Aucas wins 7, draws 4, Barcelona SC wins 4

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4
Aucas Home
30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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