URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Centenario
Referee: J. Feres

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds 2.05
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.13
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.1%
2.05
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.13
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Atletico Torque Win 30.1%
Draw 4.8%
Penarol Win 65.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Torque1.28
Penarol1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Torque Atletico Torque
WWDLW
34 GF / 31 GA
Penarol Penarol
WLDWL
44 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
15
BTTS Yes
16
13
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 23 matches
Penarol Penarol 29 matches
Atletico Torque Statistic Penarol
10 Wins 14
5 Draws 7
8 Losses 8
34 Goals For 44
31 Goals Against 28
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
15 BTTS Yes 16
17 Over 1.5 23
13 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 3
0 Total Shots 10
0 Corners 3
0% Ball Possession 32.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Penarol. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Torque expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Penarol in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Penarol having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Atletico Torque Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 35 points from 22 games, Atletico Torque bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 10 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 33:27, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Penarol Analysis

Penarol come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 43 points after 22 matches. With 13 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 35:19, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Torque won 3 times, Penarol won 10 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:24 from Atletico Torque's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Torque 4-2-3-1 / Penarol 4-4-2
H2H summary: Atletico Torque wins 3, draws 1, Penarol wins 10

Standings

Primera: Promedios
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 62 38 11 13 103:55 48 125
L D W W W
2 63 37 12 14 113:66 47 120
W W L L W
3 26 13 7 6 40:26 14 46
L D W D D
4 63 28 20 15 86:61 25 104
D W W W D
5 62 26 21 15 70:57 13 99
D W D W L
6 62 26 15 21 96:80 16 93
W W W L W
7 63 26 13 24 74:74 0 91
W W L D D
8 63 24 17 22 63:67 -4 89
L D L L W
9 26 10 6 10 29:32 -3 36
L L L W D
10 25 9 7 9 35:30 5 34
L L L D L
11 63 22 19 22 75:73 2 85
D W D W L
12 63 20 21 22 68:69 -1 81
D D D D L
13 63 18 19 26 59:78 -19 73
W L D W W
14 63 19 16 28 51:82 -31 72
D L W W L
15 63 14 25 24 63:73 -10 67
L D D L D
16 63 15 13 35 57:98 -41 58
W L L L L
Relegation - Segunda Division