URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Centenario

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.3%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico Torque Win 55.3%
Draw 18.4%
Cerro Largo Win 26.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Torque1.39
Cerro Largo1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Torque Atletico Torque
WWDLW
40 GF / 32 GA
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WLDWL
26 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
16
BTTS Yes
10
14
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 25 matches
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 25 matches
Atletico Torque Statistic Cerro Largo
12 Wins 8
5 Draws 7
8 Losses 10
40 Goals For 26
32 Goals Against 27
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
16 BTTS Yes 10
18 Over 1.5 16
14 Over 2.5 8
9 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Atletico Torque's more proactive style and Cerro Largo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Atletico Torque come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cerro Largo. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Torque expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cerro Largo in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro Largo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Atletico Torque Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 41 points from 24 games, Atletico Torque bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 12 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 39:28, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Cerro Largo Analysis

From their first 25 matches, Cerro Largo have collected 31 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, while the 26:27 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Torque won 5 times, Cerro Largo won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:13 from Atletico Torque's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.6%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Torque 4-2-3-1 / Cerro Largo 4-3-3
H2H summary: Atletico Torque wins 5, draws 7, Cerro Largo wins 3
Last matches: Atletico Torque
23.08.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Wanderers
5
1
W
15.08.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Juventud
1
0
W
31.07.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Wanderers
0
2
L
24.07.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Danubio
1
0
W
11.07.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Juventud
3
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Atletico Torque
Bahia
1
4
L
06.06.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
31.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Albion FC
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Boston River
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Cerro
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Albion FC
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Danubio
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
2
3
L
24.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Central Espanol
2
1
W
16.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
Last matches: Cerro Largo
22.08.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
15.08.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
1
1
D
07.08.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Juventud
1
1
D
01.08.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Penarol
0
3
L
25.07.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
1
0
W
13.07.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
08.06.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
11.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Penarol
2
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Progreso
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
20.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
2
2
D
30.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Danubio
2
0
W
24.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
0
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Deportivo Maldonado
3
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
3
1
W
H2H: Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo
09.03.26
H2H
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
0
1
W
14.01.26
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
2
3
L
20.09.25
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
25.03.25
H2H
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
04.11.23
H2H
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
1
2
W
27.03.23
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
2
L
31.07.22
H2H
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
1
2
W
05.02.22
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
29.11.21
H2H
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
15.08.21
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
01.03.21
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
04.09.20
H2H
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
11.10.17
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
31.05.17
H2H
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
19.11.16
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
Last matches: Atletico Torque
23.08.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Wanderers
5
1
W
31.07.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Wanderers
0
2
L
24.07.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Danubio
1
0
W
06.06.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Deportivo Maldonado
2
4
L
15.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Progreso
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Boston River
4
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Albion FC
0
1
L
28.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Club Nacional
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Central Espanol
2
1
W
26.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
17.02.26
Pri
Atletico Torque
Juventud
2
2
D
09.11.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Penarol
0
2
L
18.10.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Cerro
1
2
L
12.10.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Wanderers
2
2
D
03.10.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Miramar
3
0
W
20.09.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
07.09.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
24.08.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Racing Montevideo
4
0
W
08.08.25
Pri
Atletico Torque
Boston River
1
1
D
H2H at home: Atletico Torque
14.01.26
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
2
3
L
20.09.25
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
27.03.23
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
2
L
05.02.22
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
15.08.21
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
01.03.21
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
11.10.17
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
19.11.16
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
Last matches: Cerro Largo
15.08.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
1
1
D
01.08.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Penarol
0
3
L
25.07.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
1
0
W
08.06.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
03.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Progreso
1
0
W
20.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
2
2
D
24.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
0
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
3
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Juventud
1
0
W
03.11.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
19.10.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
CA River Plate
1
1
D
04.10.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
1
2
L
20.09.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
07.09.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Miramar
1
1
D
09.08.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Progreso
2
1
W
H2H away: Cerro Largo
14.01.26
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
2
3
W
20.09.25
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
0
L
27.03.23
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
2
W
05.02.22
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
15.08.21
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
3
0
L
01.03.21
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
11.10.17
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
0
1
W
19.11.16
H2H
Atletico Torque
Cerro Largo
0
0
D

Standings

Primera: Promedios
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 61 38 11 12 103:54 49 125
D W W W D
2 62 36 12 14 112:66 46 117
W L L W L
3 25 13 7 5 40:24 16 46
D W D D L
4 62 28 19 15 85:60 25 103
W W W D W
5 62 26 21 15 70:57 13 99
D W D W L
6 61 25 15 21 93:79 14 90
W W L W W
7 62 24 17 21 62:64 -2 89
D L L W L
8 62 25 13 24 72:74 -2 88
W L D D W
9 26 10 6 10 29:32 -3 36
L L L W D
10 25 9 7 9 35:30 5 34
L L L D L
11 62 22 18 22 74:72 2 84
W D W L L
12 62 20 20 22 67:68 -1 80
D D D L W
13 63 18 19 26 59:78 -19 73
W L D W W
14 62 19 15 28 50:81 -31 71
L W W L W
15 62 14 25 23 63:72 -9 67
D D L D L
16 62 14 13 35 56:98 -42 55
L L L L W
Relegation - Segunda Division