MEXICO LIGA MX
19.09.2026 23:00
Estadio Libertad Financiera

Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 63.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
63.6%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atletico San Luis Win 40.9%
Draw 22.7%
Necaxa Win 36.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico San Luis1.59
Necaxa1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis
WWDLW
23 GF / 17 GA
Necaxa Necaxa
WLDWL
18 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
5
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
7
3.88
Shots on Goal
4.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 13 matches
Necaxa Necaxa 13 matches
Atletico San Luis Statistic Necaxa
5 Wins 5
4 Draws 4
4 Losses 4
23 Goals For 18
17 Goals Against 17
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
5 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 9
9 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 3
3.88 Shots On Goal 4.88
12.63 Total Shots 14.5
3 Corners 5.75
52.6% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Necaxa arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Necaxa. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico San Luis expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Necaxa in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Necaxa having the stronger overall control.

Atletico San Luis Analysis

Atletico San Luis sit 16 with 6 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats with a 8:13 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Rafa Llorente (3 goals), D. Rodríguez (2 goals), Ó. Macías (1 goals), with creative support from L. Flores (2 assists), Ó. Macías (1 assists), R. Torres (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Necaxa Analysis

Necaxa sit 13 with 8 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 9:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Carranza (2 goals), Juan Valencia (1 goals), M. Espíndola (1 goals), with creative support from Juan Valencia (1 assists), M. Zaleta (1 assists), A. Peña (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico San Luis won 3 times, Necaxa won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:33 from Atletico San Luis's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.3%)
Predicted formations: Atletico San Luis 5-4-1 / Necaxa 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Atletico San Luis wins 3, draws 3, Necaxa wins 9

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 15:6 9 17
W W D W W
2 7 5 1 1 17:6 11 16
W W W D W
3 7 5 1 1 15:6 9 16
L W W W W
4 8 5 0 3 16:14 2 15
W W W L L
5 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
6 8 4 1 3 11:9 2 13
W L D W W
7 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
8 7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
W L W W D
9 8 4 1 3 12:14 -2 13
L D L W W
10 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
11 8 3 2 3 11:12 -1 11
L W L D D
12 7 3 1 3 13:10 3 10
D L L W W
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
L D L D L
14 8 1 4 3 9:11 -2 7
D D D W L
15 8 1 4 3 7:12 -5 7
L D D L D
16 8 1 3 4 8:15 -7 6
L L W D L
17 8 1 1 6 6:13 -7 4
W L D L L
18 8 0 0 8 4:23 -19 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)