20.09.2026 16:00
TD Place Stadium

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.6%
Odds 2.45
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.54
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.6%
2.45
BTTS Yes
75%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.54
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
76.3%
1.21
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Atlético Ottawa Win 72.6%
Draw 4.5%
Supra du Quebec Win 23%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlético Ottawa1.58
Supra du Quebec1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
WWDLW
34 GF / 44 GA
Supra du Quebec Supra du Quebec
WLDWL
29 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
15
BTTS Yes
16
17
Over 2.5
12
1.88
Shots on Goal
2.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa 24 matches
Supra du Quebec Supra du Quebec 21 matches
Atlético Ottawa Statistic Supra du Quebec
10 Wins 6
4 Draws 4
10 Losses 11
34 Goals For 29
44 Goals Against 38
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
15 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 17
17 Over 2.5 12
10 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 4
1.88 Shots On Goal 2.19
5.33 Total Shots 7.62
2.04 Corners 2.52
31.3% Ball Possession 28.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlético Ottawa expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Supra du Quebec in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Supra du Quebec having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Supra du Quebec. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Supra du Quebec arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Atlético Ottawa Analysis

Atlético Ottawa arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 34 points after 22 matches. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 34:37 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Supra du Quebec Analysis

Supra du Quebec approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 22 points from 21 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 29:38, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Chretien (1 goals), I. Conde (1 goals), with creative support from S. Rea (1 assists), D. Choinière (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Atlético Ottawa won 3 times, Supra du Quebec won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:10 from Atlético Ottawa's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 4.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Atlético Ottawa 4-4-2 / Supra du Quebec 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atlético Ottawa wins 3, draws 1, Supra du Quebec wins 1

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 5 2 42:13 29 50
D W W W W
2 22 14 4 4 34:16 18 46
D W D L W
3 22 10 4 8 34:37 -3 34
L D W L W
4 23 9 4 10 31:29 2 31
D L W L L
5 22 6 5 11 31:37 -6 23
W L L W L
6 20 5 8 7 29:42 -13 23
W D D L D
7 21 6 4 11 29:38 -9 22
L L W D L
8 22 1 8 13 26:44 -18 11
D L D D W