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13.10.2026 19:00
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Referee: Glenn Nyberg
Atletico Madrid
Match Timeline
Manchester United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
P. Barrios · Assist: A. Baena
Atletico Madrid
VAR
45'
Johnny Cardoso
Atletico Madrid
🟨
52'
Marcus Rashford
Manchester United
🔄
60'
P. Barrios ↔ M. Pubill
Atletico Madrid
🔄
61'
Lee Kang-In ↔ J. David
Atletico Madrid
🔄
66'
C. Baleba ↔ M. Mount
Manchester United
🔄
66'
Y. Tielemans ↔ J. Zirkzee
Manchester United
🔄
66'
M. Rashford ↔ A. Diallo
Manchester United
🔄
71'
J. Alvarez ↔ M. Hjulmand
Atletico Madrid
🔄
71'
A. Baena ↔ A. Lookman
Atletico Madrid
VAR
72'
Leny Yoro
Manchester United
🟥
74'
Leny Yoro
Manchester United
⚽
79'
A. Lookman
Atletico Madrid
🔄
80'
A. Heaven ↔ H. Maguire
Manchester United
🔄
80'
B. Fernandes ↔ M. Cunha
Manchester United
🟨
88'
Robin Le Normand
Atletico Madrid
🔄
88'
G. Simeone ↔ R. Le Normand
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds 1.96
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.70
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.2%
1.96 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.70 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.23 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Madrid Win 55.2%
Draw 3.6%
Manchester United Win 41.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid1.77
Manchester United1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid
WWDLW
27 GF / 17 GA
Manchester United Manchester United
WLDWL
24 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
2.08
Average Goals Scored
1.85
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
9
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
6
6.22
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 13 matches
Manchester United Manchester United 13 matches
Atletico Madrid Statistic Manchester United
8 Wins 4
1 Draws 5
4 Losses 4
27 Goals For 24
17 Goals Against 17
2.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
9 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 11
12 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 3
6.22 Shots On Goal 6
16.67 Total Shots 20.86
5.56 Corners 6.71
58.1% Ball Possession 58.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Madrid won 3 times, Manchester United won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:3 from Atletico Madrid's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Madrid 4-4-2 / Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atletico Madrid 0, Manchester United 9
H2H summary: Atletico Madrid wins 3, draws 1, Manchester United wins 1

Standings

UEFA Champions League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 2 2 0 0 10:3 7 6
W W
2 2 2 0 0 9:2 7 6
W W
3 2 2 0 0 9:2 7 6
W W
4 2 2 0 0 6:1 5 6
W W
5 2 2 0 0 8:4 4 6
W W
6 2 2 0 0 5:1 4 6
W W
7 2 2 0 0 4:0 4 6
W W
8 2 2 0 0 6:4 2 6
W W
9 2 2 0 0 6:4 2 6
W W
10 2 1 1 0 8:3 5 4
D W
11 2 1 1 0 4:2 2 4
W D
12 2 1 0 1 6:4 2 3
L W
13 2 1 0 1 4:2 2 3
L W
14 2 1 0 1 5:4 1 3
W L
15 2 1 0 1 3:2 1 3
W L
16 2 1 0 1 6:6 0 3
W L
17 2 1 0 1 4:4 0 3
L W
18 2 1 0 1 3:3 0 3
L W
19 2 1 0 1 3:4 -1 3
L W
20 2 1 0 1 2:3 -1 3
L W
21 2 1 0 1 2:4 -2 3
W L
22 2 1 0 1 2:4 -2 3
W L
23 2 1 0 1 4:7 -3 3
W L
24 2 1 0 1 1:5 -4 3
W L
25 2 0 1 1 4:5 -1 1
L D
26 2 0 1 1 1:2 -1 1
L D
27 2 0 1 1 4:6 -2 1
D L
28 2 0 1 1 1:7 -6 1
L D
29 2 0 0 2 4:6 -2 0
L L
30 2 0 0 2 2:5 -3 0
L L
31 2 0 0 2 2:5 -3 0
L L
32 2 0 0 2 1:4 -3 0
L L
33 2 0 0 2 3:7 -4 0
L L
34 2 0 0 2 2:6 -4 0
L L
35 2 0 0 2 2:7 -5 0
L L
36 2 0 0 2 1:9 -8 0
L L
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)