MEXICO LIGA MX
19.09.2026 23:00
Estadio Jalisco

Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60.4%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atlas Win 28.1%
Draw 11.5%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Win 60.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlas1.25
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlas Atlas
WWDLW
16 GF / 22 GA
U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas
WLDWL
16 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
7
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
7
3.63
Shots on Goal
4.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlas Atlas 14 matches
U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas 12 matches
Atlas Statistic U.N.A.M. - Pumas
4 Wins 5
3 Draws 2
7 Losses 5
16 Goals For 16
22 Goals Against 17
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
7 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 9
6 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 5
3.63 Shots On Goal 4.4
11 Total Shots 13.3
4.5 Corners 4.4
50.8% Ball Possession 47%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward U.N.A.M. - Pumas. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlas expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and U.N.A.M. - Pumas in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward U.N.A.M. - Pumas having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Atlas Analysis

Atlas come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 13 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:9 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. González (1 goals), A. Rocha (1 goals), Duk (1 goals), with creative support from Gustavo Ferrareis (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas Analysis

So far, U.N.A.M. - Pumas have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 11 points from 7 matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 11:9 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Juninho (4 goals), R. Morales (2 goals), P. Vite (1 goals), with creative support from R. Morales (3 assists), R. López (2 assists), U. Antuna (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Atlas won 2 times, U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 4 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:12 from Atlas's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.43 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.5%)
Predicted formations: Atlas 4-2-3-1 / U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Atlas wins 2, draws 8, U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins 4

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 15:6 9 17
W W D W W
2 7 5 1 1 17:6 11 16
W W W D W
3 7 5 1 1 15:6 9 16
L W W W W
4 8 5 0 3 16:14 2 15
W W W L L
5 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
6 8 4 1 3 11:9 2 13
W L D W W
7 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
8 7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
W L W W D
9
Atlas Home
8 4 1 3 12:14 -2 13
L D L W W
10 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
11 8 3 2 3 11:12 -1 11
L W L D D
12 7 3 1 3 13:10 3 10
D L L W W
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
L D L D L
14 8 1 4 3 9:11 -2 7
D D D W L
15 8 1 4 3 7:12 -5 7
L D D L D
16 8 1 3 4 8:15 -7 6
L L W D L
17 8 1 1 6 6:13 -7 4
W L D L L
18 8 0 0 8 4:23 -19 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)