MEXICO LIGA MX
23.04.2026 01:00
Estadio Jalisco
Referee: H. Gomez
Atlas
Match Timeline
Tigres UANL
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
17'
Joaquim ↔ J. Brunetta
Tigres UANL
🟨
35'
Fernando Gorriaran
Tigres UANL
VAR
40'
Diego González
Atlas
🔄
46'
F. Gorriaran ↔ R. Guerrero
Tigres UANL
🔄
60'
R. Aguirre ↔ A. Gignac
Tigres UANL
🔄
60'
O. Herrera ↔ M. Flores
Tigres UANL
🔄
63'
P. Ramirez ↔ M. E. Garcia
Atlas
🟨
70'
Aldo Rocha
Atlas
🔄
72'
E. Aguirre ↔ A. Rodriguez
Atlas
🔄
73'
D. Gonzalez ↔ L. Gamboa
Atlas
🔄
73'
S. Hernandez ↔ E. Zaldivar
Atlas
🟨
79'
Jesus Garza
Tigres UANL
🔄
79'
J. Angulo ↔ F. Reyes
Tigres UANL
🔄
85'
J. Rodriguez ↔ G. Aguirre
Atlas
🟨
90+3'
Luis Gamboa
Atlas
🟥
90+12'
Gustavo Ferrareis
Atlas
VAR
90+10'
Gustavo Ferrareis
Atlas

Atlas vs Tigres UANL Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
54.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Atlas Win 82.6%
Draw 12.2%
Tigres UANL Win 5.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlas1.15
Tigres UANL1.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlas Atlas
WWDLW
39 GF / 53 GA
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
WLDWL
67 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.66
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
17
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
19
3.41
Shots on Goal
5.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlas Atlas 32 matches
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 38 matches
Atlas Statistic Tigres UANL
10 Wins 18
9 Draws 11
13 Losses 9
39 Goals For 67
53 Goals Against 40
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.66 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
17 BTTS Yes 22
24 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 19
13 Over 3.5 11
8 Clean Sheets 13
10 Failed To Score 7
3.41 Shots On Goal 5.29
10.63 Total Shots 15.11
3.5 Corners 5.61
44.6% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Tigres UANL's more proactive style and Atlas's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlas expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Tigres UANL in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tigres UANL having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tigres UANL.

Atlas Analysis

So far, Atlas have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 22 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, while the 14:18 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Uroš Đurđević (12 goals), D. Gonzalez (6 goals), A. Gonzalez (5 goals), with creative support from D. Gonzalez (6 assists), Gustavo Ferrareis (3 assists), E. Aguirre (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tigres UANL Analysis

Tigres UANL are currently 9 in the standings with 21 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, while the 22:16 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Brunetta (16 goals), A. Correa (15 goals), D. Lainez (6 goals), with creative support from Juan Brunetta (8 assists), A. Correa (8 assists), D. Lainez (7 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlas won 4 times, Tigres UANL won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:17 from Atlas's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Atlas 3-5-2 / Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atlas wins 4, draws 5, Tigres UANL wins 6

Standings

Liga MX, Clausura 2026
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 10 6 1 34:17 17 36
L D W L D
2 17 11 3 3 33:17 16 36
L D W L D
3 17 9 6 2 31:18 13 33
W D W D W
4 17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W W W L
5 17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L L W L L
6
Atlas Home
17 7 5 5 16:18 -2 26
L L W D W
7 17 7 4 6 28:18 10 25
L W W D D
8 17 7 4 6 20:17 3 25
D D L W W
9 17 5 8 4 19:17 2 23
D W D W W
10 17 7 1 9 22:32 -10 22
L L W W W
11 17 4 8 5 17:21 -4 20
W D D W D
12 17 5 4 8 26:32 -6 19
W L L L D
13 17 5 3 9 22:24 -2 18
L W L D L
14 17 5 3 9 24:27 -3 18
L W L D W
15 17 5 3 9 19:25 -6 18
L D D L W
16 17 4 3 10 22:37 -15 15
L W D L L
17 17 3 4 10 13:26 -13 13
L L L L D
18 17 3 3 11 20:38 -18 12
W L L L D
Playoffs