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MEXICO › LIGA MX
11.10.2026 01:00
Estadio Jalisco
Referee: Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava, Mexico
Atlas
Match Timeline
Guadalajara Chivas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Juan José Purata
Atlas
🟨
30'
Richard Ledezma
Guadalajara Chivas
🟨
41'
Daniel Aguirre
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
46'
D. Campillo Del Campo ↔ C. Hernandez
Guadalajara Chivas
⚽
52'
K. Zenon · Assist: P. Ramirez
Atlas
🟨
63'
Florián Monzón
Atlas
🔄
65'
P. Ramirez ↔ E. Zaldivar
Atlas
🔄
66'
L. Calderon ↔ K. Castaneda
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
66'
R. Ledezma ↔ S. Sandoval
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
66'
R. Marin ↔ H. Camberos
Guadalajara Chivas
VAR
70'
Santiago Sandoval
Guadalajara Chivas
⚽
76'
Ángel Sepúlveda
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
83'
E. Montiel ↔ A. Rocha
Atlas
🟨
84'
Kevin Castañeda
Guadalajara Chivas
⚽
86'
A. Sepulveda · Assist: B. Gutierrez
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
87'
R. Mmaee ↔ S. Hernandez
Atlas
🟨
89'
Santiago Sandoval
Guadalajara Chivas
🟨
90+9'
Adonis Frías
Atlas
🟨
90+8'
Kevin Castañeda
Guadalajara Chivas
🟥
90+8'
Kevin Castañeda
Guadalajara Chivas
🔄
90+1'
R. Alvarado ↔ E. Alvarez
Guadalajara Chivas

Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 64.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
64.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atlas Win 30.1%
Draw 5.7%
Guadalajara Chivas Win 64.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlas1.03
Guadalajara Chivas1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlas Atlas
W D L D L
8 GF / 12 GA
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
W L D W W
10 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
9
BTTS Yes
4
7
Over 2.5
4
4
Shots on Goal
5.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlas Atlas 16 matches
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas 14 matches
Atlas Statistic Guadalajara Chivas
5 Wins 7
4 Draws 5
7 Losses 2
20 Goals For 20
25 Goals Against 10
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
9 BTTS Yes 4
11 Over 1.5 9
7 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 4
4 Shots On Goal 5.6
13 Total Shots 14.6
5.4 Corners 7.9
53.1% Ball Possession 59.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Guadalajara Chivas's more proactive style and Atlas's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Guadalajara Chivas.

Atlas Analysis

Atlas sit 6 with 17 points after 10 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 16:17 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luís Esteves (3 goals), F. Monzón (2 goals), Duk (2 goals), with creative support from K. Zenón (2 assists), Luís Esteves (1 assists), Gustavo Ferrareis (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Guadalajara Chivas Analysis

Guadalajara Chivas come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 18 points from 10 matches. The record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 17:10 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through R. Alvarado (3 goals), R. Marín (2 goals), Santiago Sandoval (2 goals), with creative support from R. Marín (2 assists), Á. Sepúlveda (2 assists), E. Álvarez (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlas won 3 times, Guadalajara Chivas won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:20 from Atlas's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Atlas 3-4-2-1 / Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Atlas wins 3, draws 6, Guadalajara Chivas wins 6

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 8 3 1 32:16 16 27
W W D W D
2 13 6 5 2 20:12 8 23
W D D L D
3 13 7 2 4 29:22 7 23
W W D D L
4 13 6 4 3 28:18 10 22
D D L D L
6
Atlas Home
13 6 3 4 21:23 -2 21
L W D W D
7 12 6 2 4 23:17 6 20
W W D L W
8 12 6 2 4 16:15 1 20
L L W W D
9 13 6 1 6 19:16 3 19
W W W W W
10 14 5 4 5 19:22 -3 19
W W D L W
11 12 4 5 3 17:16 1 17
D D D L D
12 13 4 4 5 19:22 -3 16
L W D L D
13 13 4 4 5 13:17 -4 16
L D D L D
14 13 3 5 5 14:18 -4 14
L D W W L
15 14 3 5 6 14:20 -6 14
L W L L W
16 13 3 4 6 20:18 2 13
L L D L D
17 14 2 4 8 16:27 -11 10
D L L D L
18 14 1 2 11 9:33 -24 5
D L L D L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)