🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.1%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.1%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atlanta United FC Win 24.9%
Draw 12%
New York Red Bulls Win 63.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlanta United FC1.61
New York Red Bulls1.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WWDLW
27 GF / 36 GA
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WLDWL
42 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
2.17
13
BTTS Yes
17
12
Over 2.5
18
4.22
Shots on Goal
5.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 22 matches
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 24 matches
Atlanta United FC Statistic New York Red Bulls
5 Wins 9
5 Draws 4
12 Losses 11
27 Goals For 42
36 Goals Against 52
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 2.17
13 BTTS Yes 17
18 Over 1.5 23
12 Over 2.5 18
9 Over 3.5 14
3 Clean Sheets 2
8 Failed To Score 5
4.22 Shots On Goal 5.28
12.83 Total Shots 14.11
4.78 Corners 6
51.4% Ball Possession 52.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors New York Red Bulls. Atlanta United FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. New York Red Bulls carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 25 points while Atlanta United FC sit 15 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlanta United FC expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and New York Red Bulls in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York Red Bulls having the stronger overall control.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 12 points from 18 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 19:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Saba Lobzhanidze (2 goals), Ajani Fortune (2 goals), Miguel Almirón (2 goals), with creative support from Aleksey Miranchuk (3 assists), Saba Lobzhanidze (1 assists), Elías Báez (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

New York Red Bulls sit 8 with 25 points after 18 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 29:39 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (4 goals), Cade Cowell (2 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), Emil Forsberg (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta United FC won 3 times, New York Red Bulls won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:21 from Atlanta United FC's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88%)
Predicted formations: Atlanta United FC 4-1-4-1 / New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
H2H summary: Atlanta United FC wins 3, draws 5, New York Red Bulls wins 7
Last matches: Atlanta United FC
01.08.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
2
3
L
25.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
1
4
L
23.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Charlotte
2
2
D
18.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
1
L
24.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
09.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
3
1
W
25.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
2
1
W
22.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
1
2
L
18.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
12.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
04.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
1
3
L
21.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
DC United
0
0
D
14.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
3
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Real Salt Lake
2
3
L
01.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
21.02.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
01.08.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
0
2
L
22.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
3
L
24.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Sporting Kansas City
2
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
09.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
02.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Dallas
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
DC United
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
1
4
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
2
2
D
04.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
4
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
1
6
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
1
1
D
08.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
0
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
New England Revolution
1
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
2
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Houston Dynamo
2
3
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
2
3
L
H2H: Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls
11.02.26
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
31.05.25
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
2
0
L
09.03.25
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
05.10.24
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
2
1
W
21.09.24
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
2
2
D
24.06.23
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
4
0
L
01.04.23
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
1
0
W
17.08.22
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
01.07.22
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
2
1
L
03.11.21
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
0
0
D
27.06.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
11.10.20
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
1
L
12.07.20
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
1
L
07.07.19
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
3
D
19.05.19
H2H
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
1
0
L
Last matches: Atlanta United FC
09.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
3
1
W
22.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
1
2
L
18.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
1
3
L
21.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
DC United
0
0
D
14.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
3
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Real Salt Lake
2
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
30.01.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Lexington
4
0
W
H2H at home: Atlanta United FC
11.02.26
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
09.03.25
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
05.10.24
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
2
1
W
01.04.23
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
1
0
W
17.08.22
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
27.06.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
11.10.20
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
1
L
12.07.20
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
1
L
07.07.19
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
3
D
Last matches: New York Red Bulls
22.07.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
1
3
L
24.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Sporting Kansas City
2
1
W
09.05.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
25.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
18.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
1
4
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Inter Miami
2
2
D
21.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Charlotte
1
6
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
1
1
D
22.02.26
Maj
New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC
2
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Houston Dynamo
2
3
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
2
3
L
H2H away: New York Red Bulls
11.02.26
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
2
L
09.03.25
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
05.10.24
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
2
1
L
01.04.23
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
1
0
L
17.08.22
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
1
2
W
27.06.21
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
0
D
11.10.20
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
1
W
12.07.20
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
0
1
W
07.07.19
H2H
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
3
3
D

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 4 2 35:14 21 40
D L W W W
2 18 11 5 2 45:32 13 38
D W W W W
3 17 9 3 5 28:21 7 30
D W D L W
4 17 9 2 6 32:23 9 29
W L L W W
5 18 7 5 6 31:24 7 26
D W W L D
6 18 7 5 6 45:44 1 26
W L W W D
7 18 7 4 7 29:27 2 25
L W D W W
8 18 7 4 7 29:39 -10 25
W L L W D
9 18 5 8 5 26:29 -3 23
D W D D D
10 18 6 2 10 30:47 -17 20
L W W L D
11 18 5 5 8 26:28 -2 20
D W L W D
12 18 3 8 7 24:32 -8 17
D L D D L
13 18 4 4 10 25:33 -8 16
W W W L D
14 18 4 4 10 24:35 -11 16
D L L D D
15 18 3 3 12 19:33 -14 12
L L D L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)