🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
26.09.2026 23:30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 71.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
71.1%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atlanta United FC Win 28.9%
Draw 18.4%
New York City FC Win 52.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlanta United FC1.29
New York City FC1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WWDLW
38 GF / 46 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
45 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
18
BTTS Yes
20
17
Over 2.5
15
3.92
Shots on Goal
4.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 30 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 31 matches
Atlanta United FC Statistic New York City FC
9 Wins 9
7 Draws 10
14 Losses 12
38 Goals For 45
46 Goals Against 41
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
18 BTTS Yes 20
24 Over 1.5 27
17 Over 2.5 15
11 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 6
3.92 Shots On Goal 4.65
12.85 Total Shots 11.62
5 Corners 3.81
51% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights New York City FC's more proactive style and Atlanta United FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward New York City FC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlanta United FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and New York City FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 23 points from 25 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats with a 29:43 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Lobzhanidze (4 goals), M. Almirón (3 goals), A. Fortune (2 goals), with creative support from A. Miranchuk (3 assists), S. Lobzhanidze (2 assists), E. Báez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

New York City FC Analysis

New York City FC sit 8 with 32 points after 25 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, while the 39:33 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Nicolás Fernández (10 goals), Agustin Ojeda (3 goals), Hannes Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from Agustin Ojeda (6 assists), Nicolás Fernández (4 assists), Hannes Wolf (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta United FC won 4 times, New York City FC won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:27 from Atlanta United FC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.6%)
Predicted formations: Atlanta United FC 4-3-3 / New York City FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atlanta United FC wins 4, draws 6, New York City FC wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)