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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.10.2026 23:30
Atlanta Stadium
Referee: Fotis Bazakos, USA
Atlanta United FC
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Teenage Hadebe
FC Cincinnati
🟨
43'
Tomás Jacob
Atlanta United FC
⚽
52'
K. Denkey · Assist: T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🔄
56'
A. Fortune ↔ A. Miranchuk
Atlanta United FC
🔄
60'
D. Doudera ↔ E. Echenique
FC Cincinnati
⚽
69'
M. Almiron · Assist: B. Embolo
Atlanta United FC
🔄
72'
M. Robinson ↔ J. Malatini
FC Cincinnati
🔄
72'
T. Malacia ↔ B. J. Ramirez Leon
FC Cincinnati
🔄
78'
O. Nwobodo ↔ T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
78'
S. Gidi ↔ G. Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati
⚽
84'
T. Barlow · Assist: K. Smith
FC Cincinnati
🔄
86'
T. Muyumba ↔ C. Sanchez
Atlanta United FC
🔄
86'
Giuliano Galoppo ↔ F. Picault
Atlanta United FC
🟨
88'
Julián Malatini
FC Cincinnati
🟨
90+4'
Mauricio Amaro
Atlanta United FC
🟨
90+4'
Tom Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🔄
90+2'
E. Baez ↔ Sergio Santos
Atlanta United FC
⚽
90'
K. Denkey · Assist: E. Echenique
FC Cincinnati

Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.6%
Odds 2.31
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.36
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.6%
2.31 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.36 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.40 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atlanta United FC Win 64.6%
Draw 8.4%
FC Cincinnati Win 27.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlanta United FC1.63
FC Cincinnati1.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WWDLW
40 GF / 48 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
80 GF / 75 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
2.29
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
2.14
19
BTTS Yes
25
18
Over 2.5
25
3.96
Shots on Goal
6.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 31 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 35 matches
Atlanta United FC Statistic FC Cincinnati
9 Wins 13
8 Draws 11
14 Losses 11
40 Goals For 80
48 Goals Against 75
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 2.29
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 2.14
19 BTTS Yes 25
25 Over 1.5 32
18 Over 2.5 25
12 Over 3.5 22
5 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 4
3.96 Shots On Goal 6.1
12.59 Total Shots 14.7
4.96 Corners 4.97
51.6% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Cincinnati. FC Cincinnati arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlanta United FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and FC Cincinnati in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

Atlanta United FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 27 points from 27 matches. The overall return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats with a 32:45 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Lobzhanidze (4 goals), Miguel Almirón (3 goals), A. Fortune (3 goals), with creative support from Aleksey Miranchuk (3 assists), S. Lobzhanidze (2 assists), T. Jacob (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati sit 10 with 33 points after 26 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 9 defeats with a 55:64 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Kévin Denkey (12 goals), Evander (10 goals), T. Barlow (5 goals), with creative support from Evander (7 assists), Pavel Bucha (4 assists), G. Valenzuela (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta United FC won 4 times, FC Cincinnati won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:20 from Atlanta United FC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Atlanta United FC 4-3-3 / FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
Missing players: Atlanta United FC 2, FC Cincinnati 1
H2H summary: Atlanta United FC wins 4, draws 6, FC Cincinnati wins 5

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 20 6 3 63:22 41 66
W W W W D
2 29 14 10 5 70:50 20 52
W W L D D
3 29 15 4 10 48:41 7 49
W L L W W
4 29 14 6 9 52:43 9 48
L W W W L
5 29 13 7 9 51:43 8 46
L W L W D
6 29 13 6 10 59:46 13 45
W W W W W
7 29 11 5 13 54:69 -15 38
D W L L W
8 29 10 6 13 39:54 -15 36
L W L W W
9 28 9 9 10 60:68 -8 36
L W L D D
10 29 8 9 12 42:40 2 33
L L D L W
11 29 7 12 10 44:55 -11 33
D W L L L
12 28 7 12 9 36:47 -11 33
W L D L D
13 29 9 5 15 44:47 -3 32
W L W W L
14 29 8 6 15 36:48 -12 30
W L D W D
15 29 6 6 17 35:59 -24 24
L L W L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)