BRAZIL SERIE B
04.09.2026 23:30
Estádio Joaquim Portugal
Referee: R. Klein
Athletic Club
Match Timeline
Vila Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
Yago Santos de Andrade · Assist: Kauan Rodrigues da Silva
Athletic Club
🟨
32'
André Luís
Vila Nova
🟨
39'
Nathan Camargo
Vila Nova
40'
Carlos Moisés de Lima
Athletic Club
🟨
42'
Alexsandro de Souza
Athletic Club
45'
Dixon Vera · Assist: Carlos Moisés de Lima
Athletic Club
🔄
45'
Nathan Camargo ↔ Raphael Guimarães de Paula
Vila Nova
🔄
45'
Everton Galdino ↔ Ryan lima
Vila Nova
🔄
45'
Igor Cariús ↔ Jonathan Aparecido de Oliveira da
Vila Nova
🔄
45'
Yago Santos de Andrade ↔ Joao Victor Broad Moreira Guimaraes
Athletic Club
🔄
63'
Kauan Gabriel Cordeiro Lindes ↔ Redney
Athletic Club
🔄
63'
Carlos Moisés de Lima ↔ Wilinton Aponza Carabali
Athletic Club
🟨
64'
Dixon Vera
Athletic Club
🔄
65'
Dixon Vera ↔ Otavio Bruno Dos Santos
Athletic Club
VAR
72'
Wilinton Aponza Carabali
Athletic Club
🟥
72'
Tiago Pagnussat
Vila Nova
74'
Wilinton Aponza Carabali
Athletic Club
🔄
75'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Rodrigo Esmeraldo Caixeta Júnior
Vila Nova
🟨
77'
Marcelo Henrique Laborão dos Santos
Athletic Club
🔄
82'
André Luís ↔ Gustavo Puskas Pinheiro Lemos
Vila Nova
🔄
86'
Felipe Negrucci Berdague ↔ Philipe Sampaio Azevedo
Athletic Club
🟨
88'
Wilinton Aponza Carabali
Athletic Club
90+1'
Otavio Bruno Dos Santos · Assist: Kauan Rodrigues da Silva
Athletic Club

Athletic Club vs Vila Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 62.9%
Odds 1.50
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 2.55
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
62.9%
1.50
BTTS Yes
58.2%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
2.55
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.15
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Athletic Club Win 37.1%
Draw 20.6%
Vila Nova Win 42.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club1.02
Vila Nova1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WWDLW
26 GF / 27 GA
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WLDWL
37 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1
15
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
10
3.08
Shots on Goal
4.04

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Athletic Club Athletic Club 25 matches
Vila Nova Vila Nova 25 matches
Athletic Club Statistic Vila Nova
8 Wins 13
10 Draws 5
7 Losses 7
26 Goals For 37
27 Goals Against 25
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1
15 BTTS Yes 11
18 Over 1.5 17
8 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 7
3.08 Shots On Goal 4.04
11.24 Total Shots 13
4.32 Corners 5.04
43.7% Ball Possession 52.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Vila Nova's more proactive style and Athletic Club's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vila Nova. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Athletic Club expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Vila Nova in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vila Nova having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club are currently 10 in the standings with 34 points from 24 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 25:25 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (4 goals), Max (2 goals), with creative support from Ian Luccas (2 assists), Max (2 assists), Lucas Belezi (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 41 points from 24 matches. The record of 12 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 35:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through João Vieira (3 goals), Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (6 assists), Janderson (4 assists), João Vieira (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Athletic Club won 0 times, Vila Nova won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Athletic Club's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.4%)
Predicted formations: Athletic Club 3-4-3 / Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Athletic Club wins 0, draws 2, Vila Nova wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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