SPAIN › LA LIGA
10.05.2026 14:15
San Mamés
Referee: M. Ortiz
Athletic Club
Match Timeline
Valencia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Aymeric Laporte
Athletic Club
🔄
36'
N. Williams ↔ I. Williams
Athletic Club
🔄
46'
A. Laporte ↔ D. Vivian
Athletic Club
🟨
50'
Eray Cömert
Valencia
🟨
55'
Alejandro Rego Mora
Athletic Club
🟨
59'
Pepelu
Valencia
🔄
65'
O. Sancet ↔ A. Berenguer
Athletic Club
🔄
70'
R. Navarro ↔ U. Gomez
Athletic Club
🔄
70'
H. Duro ↔ U. Sadiq
Valencia
🔄
70'
Pepelu ↔ F. Ugrinic
Valencia
🔄
70'
D. Lopez ↔ L. Ramazani
Valencia
🔄
71'
A. Rego ↔ M. Vesga
Athletic Club
⚽
72'
U. Sadiq · Assist: L. Rioja
Valencia
🔄
83'
J. Guerra ↔ U. Nunez
Valencia
🟨
88'
Umar Sadiq
Valencia
🔄
90+6'
Renzo Saravia ↔ J. Vazquez
Valencia

Athletic Club vs Valencia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Athletic Club Win 73%
Draw 0%
Valencia Win 27%
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club1.26
Valencia1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WWDLW
56 GF / 70 GA
Valencia Valencia
WLDWL
49 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.49
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
24
BTTS Yes
20
23
Over 2.5
17
4.23
Shots on Goal
3.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Athletic Club Athletic Club 47 matches
Valencia Valencia 39 matches
Athletic Club Statistic Valencia
18 Wins 14
7 Draws 9
22 Losses 16
56 Goals For 49
70 Goals Against 53
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.49 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
24 BTTS Yes 20
33 Over 1.5 32
23 Over 2.5 17
12 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 11
17 Failed To Score 9
4.23 Shots On Goal 3.28
13.4 Total Shots 11.69
5.49 Corners 4.95
47.6% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Athletic Club expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Valencia in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Valencia having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Valencia. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Athletic Club Analysis

With 44 points from 34 games and a place of 8, Athletic Club still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 13 wins, 5 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 40:50 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gorka Guruzeta (9 goals), N. Williams (6 goals), R. Navarro (6 goals), with creative support from Yuri Berchiche (5 assists), I. Williams (4 assists), Gorka Guruzeta (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Valencia Analysis

Valencia sit 12 with 39 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 37:50, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through H. Duro (9 goals), L. Ramazani (6 goals), A. Danjuma (3 goals), with creative support from L. Rioja (5 assists), Javier Guerra (5 assists), F. Ugrinic (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Athletic Club won 6 times, Valencia won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:13 from Athletic Club's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Athletic Club 4-2-3-1 / Valencia 4-4-2
Missing players: Athletic Club 3, Valencia 5
H2H summary: Athletic Club wins 6, draws 5, Valencia wins 4

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2