BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Joaquim Portugal
Referee: L. Willers Lorenzatto
Athletic Club
Match Timeline
São Bernardo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
Max · Assist: Belezi
Athletic Club
VAR
7'
Felipe Garcia
São Bernardo
26'
Lucas Rian · Assist: Lucas Lima
São Bernardo
🔄
52'
G. Cabezas ↔ Felipe Negrucci
Athletic Club
🔄
52'
Carlinhos ↔ D. Vera
Athletic Club
🟨
57'
Dudu Miraíma
São Bernardo
🔄
61'
Ian Luccas ↔ W. Aponza
Athletic Club
63'
Felipe Negrucci · Assist: Diogo Batista
Athletic Club
🔄
65'
Dudu Miraima ↔ Hyoran
São Bernardo
🔄
65'
Echapora ↔ D. Davi
São Bernardo
🔄
65'
Para ↔ Mario Sergio
São Bernardo
🔄
77'
Max ↔ Yarlen
Athletic Club
🔄
79'
Lucas Lima ↔ Daniel Amorim
São Bernardo
🔄
82'
Lucas Rian ↔ Fabricio Daniel
São Bernardo
🟨
87'
Rodrigo Ferreira
São Bernardo
🟨
89'
Felipe Garcia
São Bernardo
🟨
90+1'
Wilinton Aponzá
Athletic Club

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.3%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.3%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Athletic Club Win 35.2%
Draw 14.6%
São Bernardo Win 50.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club0.91
São Bernardo1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WWDLW
16 GF / 16 GA
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WLDWL
24 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
10
BTTS Yes
10
4
Over 2.5
8
3.11
Shots on Goal
3.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Athletic Club Athletic Club 18 matches
São Bernardo São Bernardo 18 matches
Athletic Club Statistic São Bernardo
5 Wins 7
9 Draws 6
4 Losses 5
16 Goals For 24
16 Goals Against 17
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
10 BTTS Yes 10
11 Over 1.5 12
4 Over 2.5 8
1 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 4
3.11 Shots On Goal 3.94
11.61 Total Shots 10.56
4.61 Corners 3.83
44.4% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights São Bernardo's more proactive style and Athletic Club's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Athletic Club expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and São Bernardo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward São Bernardo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors São Bernardo. São Bernardo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Athletic Club Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Athletic Club have collected 23 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses, while the 16:16 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (3 goals), Lucas Belezi (1 goals), with creative support from Ian Luccas (2 assists), Lucas Belezi (1 assists), Diogo Batista de Souza (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

São Bernardo Analysis

With 26 points from 17 games and a place of 7, São Bernardo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 23:16, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Rodrigo Ferreira (3 goals), Dudu Miraíma (2 goals), Pedro Vitor (2 goals), with creative support from Dudu Miraíma (3 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), Echaporã (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Athletic Club won 1 times, São Bernardo won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Athletic Club's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: Athletic Club 3-4-2-1 / São Bernardo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Athletic Club wins 1, draws 0, São Bernardo wins 1
Stats
Athletic Club Athletic Club
São Bernardo São Bernardo
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
11
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
5
2 Corner Kicks 6
17 Fouls 7
5 Offsides 5
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Goal 11
2 Shots off Goal 4
3 Blocked Shots 5
3 Shots insidebox 10
7 Shots outsidebox 10
9 Goalkeeper Saves 3
327 Total passes 508
256 Passes accurate 434
0.70 expected_goals 1.76
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Athletic Club
Formation
São Bernardo
Luan Polli
Luan Polli
Diogo Batista
🎯
Diogo Batista
Jhonatan Silva
Jhonatan Silva
Belezi
🎯
Belezi
Enzo Santos
Enzo Santos
Joao Miguel
Joao Miguel
Max
Max
G. Cabezas
G. Cabezas
Kauan Rodrigues
Kauan Rodrigues
Ian Luccas
Ian Luccas
Carlinhos
Carlinhos
Alex Alves
Alex Alves
Rodrigo Ferreira
Rodrigo Ferreira
Jemerson
Jemerson
Augusto
Augusto
Para
Para
Lucas Lima
🎯
Lucas Lima
Foguinho
Foguinho
Dudu Miraima
Dudu Miraima
Lucas Rian
Lucas Rian
Felipe Garcia
Felipe Garcia
Echapora
Echapora
Athletic Club 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
Luan Polli
G
22
Diogo Batista
🎯 63'
D
3
Jhonatan Silva
D
4
Belezi
🎯 2'
D
23
Enzo Santos
D
16
Joao Miguel
M
11
Max
⚽ 2' ↓ 77'
M
8
G. Cabezas
↓ 52'
M
17
Kauan Rodrigues
M
5
Ian Luccas
↓ 61'
M
9
Carlinhos
↓ 52'
F
Substitutes
12
Glauco
G
10
Gustavinho
M
2
Douglas Pele
D
20
W. Aponza
↑ 61' 🟨 90+1'
F
6
Felipe Negrucci
⚽ 63' ↑ 52'
M
15
Jota
7
Yarlen
↑ 77'
F
14
Marcelo Henrique
D
18
Pedro Oliveira
M
21
D. Vera
↑ 52'
F
13
Felipe Vieira
19
J. Pool
São Bernardo 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Alex Alves
G
2
Rodrigo Ferreira
🟨 87'
D
35
Jemerson
D
97
Augusto
D
6
Para
↓ 65'
D
14
Lucas Lima
🎯 26' ↓ 79'
M
8
Foguinho
M
26
Dudu Miraima
↓ 65' 🟨 57'
M
7
Lucas Rian
⚽ 26' ↓ 82'
F
9
Felipe Garcia
🟨 89'
F
27
Echapora
↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
12
Junior Oliveira
G
42
Hyoran
↑ 65'
M
77
Marcao Silva
M
3
Helder Maciel
D
10
Fabricio Daniel
↑ 82'
F
90
Luizao
70
Lucas Reis
F
37
D. Davi
↑ 65'
F
33
Mario Sergio
↑ 65'
D
89
Daniel Amorim
↑ 79'
F
29
Pedrinho
F
21
Hugo Sanches
D
Last matches: Athletic Club
24.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Novorizontino
1
4
L
20.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
CRB
0
2
L
16.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
America Mineiro
3
1
W
09.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Criciuma
2
0
W
28.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
18.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
13.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Ceara
0
0
D
07.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Operario-PR
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Avai
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Londrina
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Goias
1
1
D
11.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Sport Recife
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Fortaleza EC
1
0
W
25.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Botafogo SP
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Juventude
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Cuiaba
0
0
D
04.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Vila Nova
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Novorizontino
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
CRB
3
2
W
Last matches: São Bernardo
23.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
19.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
14.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
07.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Operario-PR
3
1
W
26.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ceara
3
4
L
17.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Avai
1
1
D
12.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Cuiaba
2
2
D
06.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Vila Nova
1
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Criciuma
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Juventude
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Sport Recife
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
CRB
3
2
W
31.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Novorizontino
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Atletico Goianiense
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
America Mineiro
1
1
D
12.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Londrina
3
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ponte Preta
3
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Goias
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Nautico Recife
3
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
H2H: Athletic Club vs São Bernardo
23.07.26
H2H
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
2
1
W
29.06.24
H2H
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
1
4
L
Last matches: Athletic Club
24.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Novorizontino
1
4
L
20.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
CRB
0
2
L
09.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Criciuma
2
0
W
07.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Operario-PR
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Avai
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Goias
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Fortaleza EC
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Juventude
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Cuiaba
0
0
D
27.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
America Mineiro
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Ponte Preta
2
1
W
H2H at home: Athletic Club
23.07.26
H2H
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
2
1
W
29.06.24
H2H
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
1
4
L
Last matches: São Bernardo
19.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Fortaleza EC
1
1
D
07.08.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Operario-PR
3
1
W
06.07.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Vila Nova
1
2
L
27.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Criciuma
0
1
L
07.06.26
Ser
São Bernardo
CRB
3
2
W
24.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Atletico Goianiense
1
0
W
12.05.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Londrina
3
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Nautico Recife
3
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Botafogo SP
2
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
São Bernardo
Ceara
1
1
D
H2H away: São Bernardo
23.07.26
H2H
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
2
1
L
29.06.24
H2H
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
1
4
W

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 24 12 8 4 25:17 8 44
L D W L D
3 24 12 5 7 35:25 10 41
D W W L L
4 24 11 7 6 39:21 18 40
W W D L W
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 24 9 11 4 32:22 10 38
W L W W D
7 24 10 6 8 35:34 1 36
L W D W W
8 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
9 24 9 9 6 27:23 4 36
W D L D W
10 24 8 10 6 25:25 0 34
L L W W D
11 24 9 6 9 23:29 -6 33
D L L W L
12 24 7 12 5 21:18 3 33
D W W D D
13 24 8 8 8 33:27 6 32
D D L W L
14 24 8 7 9 28:26 2 31
L D W W L
15 24 8 7 9 28:27 1 31
D W D D D
16 24 8 5 11 27:30 -3 29
W W W L L
17 24 7 7 10 25:30 -5 28
W L L W W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 24 2 5 17 16:42 -26 11
L L L L W
20 24 2 4 18 16:50 -34 10
L L D L D
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