ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
New Balance Arena
Referee: I. Pezzuto
Atalanta
Match Timeline
Genoa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Alexsandro Amorim
Genoa
🔄
56'
L. Colombo ↔ C. Ekuban
Genoa
🔄
57'
G. Scamacca ↔ G. Raspadori
Atalanta
🔄
57'
B. Djimsiti ↔ I. Hien
Atalanta
🟨
64'
Éderson
Atalanta
🔄
69'
Amorim ↔ Junior Messias
Genoa
🔄
70'
J. Ekhator ↔ R. Malinovskyi
Genoa
🔄
76'
M. De Roon ↔ M. Pasalic
Atalanta
🔄
76'
C. De Ketelaere ↔ L. Samardzic
Atalanta
🟨
78'
Nikola Krstović
Atalanta
🔄
85'
D. Zappacosta ↔ Y. Musah
Atalanta
🔄
86'
S. Sabelli ↔ A. Martin
Genoa
🔄
86'
Vitinha ↔ P. Masini
Genoa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 34.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
34.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Atalanta Win 58.1%
Draw 14.4%
Genoa Win 27.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atalanta1.45
Genoa1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atalanta Atalanta
WWDLW
73 GF / 58 GA
Genoa Genoa
WLDWL
46 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
26
BTTS Yes
20
24
Over 2.5
22
4.58
Shots on Goal
3.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atalanta Atalanta 50 matches
Genoa Genoa 37 matches
Atalanta Statistic Genoa
21 Wins 12
15 Draws 9
14 Losses 16
73 Goals For 46
58 Goals Against 53
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
26 BTTS Yes 20
39 Over 1.5 31
24 Over 2.5 22
13 Over 3.5 8
17 Clean Sheets 8
10 Failed To Score 13
4.58 Shots On Goal 3.97
14.72 Total Shots 11.78
5.38 Corners 3.76
53.9% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Atalanta's more proactive style and Genoa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Genoa. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atalanta expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Genoa in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Genoa having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Genoa arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Atalanta Analysis

From their first 34 matches, Atalanta have collected 54 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 14 wins, 12 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 47:32 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Scamacca (10 goals), N. Krstovic (10 goals), C. De Ketelaere (3 goals), with creative support from C. De Ketelaere (5 assists), N. Zalewski (5 assists), N. Krstovic (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Genoa Analysis

Genoa sit 14 with 39 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats with a 40:48 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Lorenzo Colombo (7 goals), Ruslan Malinovskyi (6 goals), Leo Østigård (5 goals), with creative support from Aarón Martín (5 assists), Ruslan Malinovskyi (3 assists), Alessandro Marcandalli (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atalanta won 9 times, Genoa won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:14 from Atalanta's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Atalanta 3-4-2-1 / Genoa 3-5-2
Missing players: Atalanta 1, Genoa 2
H2H summary: Atalanta wins 9, draws 5, Genoa wins 1
Stats
Atalanta Atalanta
Genoa Genoa
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 2
14 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Goal 2
8 Shots off Goal 3
6 Blocked Shots 2
15 Shots insidebox 3
6 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 7
474 Total passes 321
382 Passes accurate 220
1.96 expected_goals 0.52
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Atalanta
Formation
Genoa
M. Carnesecchi
M. Carnesecchi
G. Scalvini
G. Scalvini
B. Djimsiti
B. Djimsiti
H. Ahanor
H. Ahanor
D. Zappacosta
D. Zappacosta
M. De Roon
M. De Roon
Ederson
Ederson
N. Zalewski
N. Zalewski
C. De Ketelaere
C. De Ketelaere
G. Scamacca
G. Scamacca
N. Krstovic
N. Krstovic
J. Bijlow
J. Bijlow
A. Marcandalli
A. Marcandalli
L. Ostigard
L. Ostigard
J. Vasquez
J. Vasquez
M. E. Ellertsson
M. E. Ellertsson
Amorim
Amorim
M. Frendrup
M. Frendrup
S. Sabelli
S. Sabelli
Vitinha
Vitinha
J. Ekhator
J. Ekhator
L. Colombo
L. Colombo
Atalanta 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
29
M. Carnesecchi
G
42
G. Scalvini
D
19
B. Djimsiti
↓ 57'
D
69
H. Ahanor
D
77
D. Zappacosta
↓ 85'
M
15
M. De Roon
↓ 76'
M
13
Ederson
🟨 64'
M
59
N. Zalewski
M
17
C. De Ketelaere
↓ 76'
F
9
G. Scamacca
↓ 57'
F
90
N. Krstovic
🟨 78'
F
Substitutes
57
M. Sportiello
G
31
F. Rossi
G
23
S. Kolasinac
D
16
R. Bellanova
D
18
G. Raspadori
↑ 57'
F
6
Y. Musah
↑ 85'
M
7
K. Sulemana
F
8
M. Pasalic
↑ 76'
M
5
M. Bakker
D
4
I. Hien
↑ 57'
D
3
O. Kossounou
D
10
L. Samardzic
↑ 76'
M
Genoa 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
16
J. Bijlow
G
27
A. Marcandalli
D
5
L. Ostigard
D
22
J. Vasquez
D
77
M. E. Ellertsson
M
4
Amorim
↓ 69' 🟨 19'
M
32
M. Frendrup
M
20
S. Sabelli
↓ 86'
M
9
Vitinha
↓ 86'
F
21
J. Ekhator
↓ 70'
F
29
L. Colombo
↓ 56'
F
Substitutes
1
N. Leali
G
39
D. Sommariva
G
70
M. Cornet
F
17
R. Malinovskyi
↑ 70'
M
18
C. Ekuban
↑ 56'
F
3
A. Martin
↑ 86'
D
10
Junior Messias
↑ 69'
F
73
P. Masini
↑ 86'
M
14
J. Onana
M
34
S. Otoa
D
13
N. Zatterstrom
D
99
W. L. Ouedraogo
D
Last matches: Atalanta
22.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Fiorentina
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
AC Milan
3
2
W
27.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cagliari
2
3
L
22.04.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
AS Roma
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Juventus
0
1
L
06.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lecce
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
18.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
4
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Inter
1
1
D
10.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
6
L
07.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Udinese
2
2
D
04.03.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
2
2
D
01.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Sassuolo
1
2
L
25.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
4
1
W
22.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Napoli
2
1
W
17.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
14.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lazio
2
0
W
09.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cremonese
2
1
W
Last matches: Genoa
24.05.26
Ser
Genoa
Lecce
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Genoa
AC Milan
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Genoa
Fiorentina
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Como
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Pisa
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Sassuolo
2
1
W
06.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Juventus
0
2
L
20.03.26
Ser
Genoa
Udinese
0
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Genoa
Hellas Verona
2
0
W
08.03.26
Ser
Genoa
AS Roma
2
1
W
28.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Inter
0
2
L
22.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Torino
3
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Cremonese
0
0
D
07.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Napoli
2
3
L
30.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Lazio
2
3
L
25.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Bologna
3
2
W
18.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Parma
0
0
D
12.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Cagliari
3
0
W
08.01.26
Ser
Genoa
AC Milan
1
1
D
03.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Pisa
1
1
D
H2H: Atalanta vs Genoa
02.05.26
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
21.12.25
H2H
Genoa
Atalanta
0
1
W
03.12.25
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
4
0
W
17.05.25
H2H
Genoa
Atalanta
2
3
W
05.10.24
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
5
1
W
11.02.24
H2H
Genoa
Atalanta
1
4
W
22.10.23
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
2
0
W
13.03.22
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
21.12.21
H2H
Genoa
Atalanta
0
0
D
15.05.21
H2H
Genoa
Atalanta
3
4
W
17.01.21
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
02.02.20
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
2
2
D
15.09.19
H2H
Genoa
Atalanta
1
2
W
11.05.19
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
2
1
W
22.12.18
H2H
Genoa
Atalanta
3
1
L
Last matches: Atalanta
17.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
L
22.04.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Juventus
0
1
L
22.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
10.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
6
L
07.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Udinese
2
2
D
25.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
4
1
W
22.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Napoli
2
1
W
09.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cremonese
2
1
W
05.02.26
Cop
Atalanta
Juventus
3
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
Parma
4
0
W
21.01.26
UEF
Atalanta
Athletic Club
2
3
L
10.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
Torino
2
0
W
03.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
AS Roma
1
0
W
28.12.25
Ser
Atalanta
Inter
0
1
L
13.12.25
Ser
Atalanta
Cagliari
2
1
W
09.12.25
UEF
Atalanta
Chelsea
2
1
W
03.12.25
Cop
Atalanta
Genoa
4
0
W
30.11.25
Ser
Atalanta
Fiorentina
2
0
W
09.11.25
Ser
Atalanta
Sassuolo
0
3
L
H2H at home: Atalanta
02.05.26
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
03.12.25
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
4
0
W
05.10.24
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
5
1
W
22.10.23
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
2
0
W
13.03.22
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
17.01.21
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
02.02.20
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
2
2
D
11.05.19
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
2
1
W
Last matches: Genoa
24.05.26
Ser
Genoa
Lecce
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Genoa
Fiorentina
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Pisa
2
1
W
06.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Juventus
0
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Genoa
Hellas Verona
2
0
W
28.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Inter
0
2
L
15.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Cremonese
0
0
D
30.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Lazio
2
3
L
18.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Parma
0
0
D
08.01.26
Ser
Genoa
AC Milan
1
1
D
29.12.25
Ser
Genoa
AS Roma
1
3
L
08.12.25
Ser
Genoa
Udinese
2
1
W
03.12.25
Cop
Genoa
Atalanta
0
4
L
22.11.25
Ser
Genoa
Cagliari
3
3
D
03.11.25
Ser
Genoa
Sassuolo
2
1
W
26.10.25
Ser
Genoa
Torino
1
2
L
05.10.25
Ser
Genoa
Napoli
1
2
L
20.09.25
Ser
Genoa
Bologna
1
2
L
15.09.25
Ser
Genoa
Como
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
Genoa
Bologna
3
1
W
H2H away: Genoa
02.05.26
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
03.12.25
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
4
0
L
05.10.24
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
5
1
L
22.10.23
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
2
0
L
13.03.22
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
17.01.21
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
02.02.20
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
2
2
D
11.05.19
H2H
Atalanta
Genoa
2
1
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16
Genoa Away
38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Atalanta 1 missing
-
L. Bernasconi
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Genoa 2 missing
-
B. Norton-Cuffy
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
T. Baldanzi
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT