ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
15.05.2026 19:00
Villa Park
Referee: C. Kavanagh
Aston Villa
Match Timeline
Liverpool
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
39'
Matty Cash
Aston Villa
42'
M. Rogers · Assist: L. Digne
Aston Villa
🟨
45+3'
Ollie Watkins
Aston Villa
🔄
46'
V. Lindelof ↔ R. Barkley
Aston Villa
52'
V. van Dijk · Assist: D. Szoboszlai
Liverpool
57'
O. Watkins · Assist: M. Rogers
Aston Villa
🟨
62'
Joe Gomez
Liverpool
🟨
66'
John McGinn
Aston Villa
🔄
66'
J. Gomez ↔ F. Chiesa
Liverpool
🔄
66'
R. Gravenberch ↔ F. Wirtz
Liverpool
73'
O. Watkins
Aston Villa
🔄
74'
C. Gakpo ↔ M. Salah
Liverpool
🔄
85'
E. Buendia ↔ I. Maatsen
Aston Villa
89'
J. McGinn · Assist: O. Watkins
Aston Villa
🔄
90'
Y. Tielemans ↔ Douglas Luiz
Aston Villa
🔄
90'
J. McGinn ↔ J. Sancho
Aston Villa
90'
V. van Dijk · Assist: D. Szoboszlai
Liverpool

Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Aston Villa Win 73.1%
Draw 8.3%
Liverpool Win 18.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa1.45
Liverpool1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aston Villa Aston Villa
WWDLW
81 GF / 58 GA
Liverpool Liverpool
WLDWL
94 GF / 67 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.81
1.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
27
BTTS Yes
29
27
Over 2.5
32
4.65
Shots on Goal
5.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aston Villa Aston Villa 52 matches
Liverpool Liverpool 52 matches
Aston Villa Statistic Liverpool
30 Wins 27
8 Draws 8
14 Losses 17
81 Goals For 94
58 Goals Against 67
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
1.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
27 BTTS Yes 29
38 Over 1.5 42
27 Over 2.5 32
15 Over 3.5 18
17 Clean Sheets 16
11 Failed To Score 9
4.65 Shots On Goal 5.35
12.5 Total Shots 16.21
5.23 Corners 6.1
53.8% Ball Possession 57.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Liverpool.

Aston Villa Analysis

Aston Villa come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 59 points from 36 matches. The record of 17 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 50:46 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through O. Watkins (12 goals), M. Rogers (9 goals), Emiliano Buendía (6 goals), with creative support from M. Rogers (5 assists), Lucas Digne (5 assists), John McGinn (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 11 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Liverpool Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 59 points from 36 games, Liverpool bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 17 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with goals at 60:48, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Ekitike (11 goals), C. Gakpo (7 goals), M. Salah (7 goals), with creative support from M. Salah (6 assists), C. Gakpo (5 assists), D. Szoboszlai (5 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aston Villa won 3 times, Liverpool won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:31 from Aston Villa's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.7%)
Predicted formations: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 / Liverpool 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Aston Villa 4, Liverpool 7
H2H summary: Aston Villa wins 3, draws 3, Liverpool wins 9

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship