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ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
10.10.2026 14:00
Villa Park
Referee: Craig Pawson, England
Aston Villa
Match Timeline
Brentford
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
Y. Yarmolyuk
Brentford
⚽
12'
N. Jackson
Aston Villa
🟨
35'
Igor Thiago
Brentford
🟨
45+3'
Emiliano Buendía
Aston Villa
🔄
46'
M. Ruggeri ↔ A. Wan-Bissaka
Aston Villa
🔄
46'
J. Schuster ↔ A. Hickey
Brentford
🔄
52'
K. Schade ↔ M. Sangare
Brentford
🔄
64'
E. Buendia ↔ I. Mbaye
Aston Villa
🔄
67'
Y. Yarmolyuk ↔ M. Jensen
Brentford
🔄
67'
K. Lewis-Potter ↔ D. Ouattara
Brentford
🟨
72'
Matty Cash
Aston Villa
🟨
75'
Vitaly Janelt
Brentford
⚽
77'
J. McGinn · Assist: J. Manzambi
Aston Villa
⚽
79'
K. Ajer · Assist: J. Anthony
Brentford
🟨
82'
Michael Kayode
Brentford
🟨
84'
Kristoffer Ajer
Brentford
🔄
85'
J. Anthony ↔ C. Wilson
Brentford
🔄
86'
Joao Gomes ↔ R. Barkley
Aston Villa
🔄
86'
J. Manzambi ↔ Alysson
Aston Villa
🟨
90+5'
Callum Wilson
Brentford

Aston Villa vs Brentford Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Aston Villa Win 35.4%
Draw 15.3%
Brentford Win 49.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa1.35
Brentford2.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aston Villa Aston Villa
WWDLW
25 GF / 27 GA
Brentford Brentford
WLDWL
21 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
3
1.8
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
11
BTTS Yes
4
13
Over 2.5
5
3.57
Shots on Goal
4.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aston Villa Aston Villa 15 matches
Brentford Brentford 7 matches
Aston Villa Statistic Brentford
5 Wins 4
1 Draws 3
9 Losses 0
25 Goals For 21
27 Goals Against 6
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 3
1.8 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
11 BTTS Yes 4
13 Over 1.5 7
13 Over 2.5 5
7 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 0
3.57 Shots On Goal 4.6
12 Total Shots 16.2
3.14 Corners 4.4
43.4% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Brentford's more proactive style and Aston Villa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Brentford. Aston Villa have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Brentford carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 9 points while Aston Villa sit 16 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Aston Villa Analysis

Aston Villa sit 16 with 4 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 4:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Manzambi (1 goals), E. Buendía (1 goals), N. Jackson (1 goals), with creative support from J. McGinn (2 assists), J. Manzambi (1 assists), B. Kamara (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Brentford Analysis

Placed 4 with 9 points from 5 outings, Brentford continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, while the 10:4 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Schade (3 goals), V. Janelt (2 goals), K. Lewis-Potter (1 goals), with creative support from K. Lewis-Potter (1 assists), M. Sangaré (1 assists), Jannik Schuster (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aston Villa won 4 times, Brentford won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:20 from Aston Villa's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.7%)
Predicted formations: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 / Brentford 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Aston Villa 3, Brentford 7
H2H summary: Aston Villa wins 4, draws 6, Brentford wins 5

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 7 0 0 19:7 12 21
W W W W W
2 7 6 0 1 11:5 6 18
W W L W W
3 7 5 1 1 23:5 18 16
W W W W D
4 7 4 1 2 17:13 4 13
W W L D L
5 7 3 3 1 9:8 1 12
W L W D W
6 7 2 4 1 13:8 5 10
L D W D D
7 7 2 4 1 9:6 3 10
D L D W D
8 7 2 4 1 8:7 1 10
L D W D D
9 7 2 3 2 8:7 1 9
L D L D D
10 7 3 0 4 11:15 -4 9
L W L W L
11 7 2 2 3 10:14 -4 8
L L W L D
12 7 2 2 3 7:11 -4 8
W D W L D
13 7 1 4 2 10:10 0 7
D D D L D
14 7 2 1 4 9:17 -8 7
L W D L W
15 7 1 3 3 9:13 -4 6
W L L D D
16 7 1 3 3 6:10 -4 6
W D L D D
17 7 2 0 5 6:14 -8 6
L W W L L
18 7 1 2 4 7:10 -3 5
W L D D L
19 7 1 2 4 5:9 -4 5
L L L W D
20 7 1 1 5 6:14 -8 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship