BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.3%
-
BTTS Yes
67.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
ASA Win 70.3%
Draw 12.4%
Ivinhema Win 17.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
ASA1.18
Ivinhema0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
ASA ASA
WWDLW
15 GF / 9 GA
Ivinhema Ivinhema
WLDWL
14 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.08
0.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
7
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ASA ASA 13 matches
Ivinhema Ivinhema 13 matches
ASA Statistic Ivinhema
6 Wins 4
5 Draws 5
2 Losses 4
15 Goals For 14
9 Goals Against 16
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
0.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
7 BTTS Yes 8
8 Over 1.5 11
5 Over 2.5 5
0 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together ASA's more proactive style and Ivinhema's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ivinhema. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ivinhema having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

ASA Analysis

ASA come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 16 points from 10 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 11:7 reflects mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Ivinhema Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Ivinhema arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 13 points after 10 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 9:12 reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
Last matches: ASA
06.07.26
Ser
ASA
Ivinhema
2
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
ASA
Sergipe
1
0
W
21.06.26
Ser
ASA
Sergipe
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
ASA
Jacuipense
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
ASA
CSE
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
ASA
CSA
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
ASA
Juazeirense
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
ASA
Atlético Alagoinhas
3
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
ASA
Atlético Alagoinhas
1
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
ASA
Juazeirense
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
ASA
CSA
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
ASA
CSE
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
ASA
Jacuipense
0
0
D
06.09.25
Ser
ASA
Maranhão
0
3
L
30.08.25
Ser
ASA
Maranhão
0
1
L
23.08.25
Ser
ASA
Manauara
0
0
D
16.08.25
Ser
ASA
Manauara
1
0
W
09.08.25
Ser
ASA
Ferroviario
2
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
ASA
Ferroviario
1
0
W
27.07.25
Ser
ASA
Juazeirense
3
0
W
Last matches: Ivinhema
06.07.26
Ser
Ivinhema
ASA
1
2
L
29.06.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Democrata GV
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Democrata GV
3
1
W
14.06.26
Ser
Ivinhema
CRAC
1
1
D
31.05.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Uberlandia
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Ipatinga
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Operario Ferroviario
0
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Ivinhema
ABECAT Ouvidorense
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Ivinhema
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Operario Ferroviario
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Ipatinga
1
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Uberlandia
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Ivinhema
CRAC
1
0
W
Last matches: ASA
21.06.26
Ser
ASA
Sergipe
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
ASA
CSE
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
ASA
Juazeirense
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
ASA
Atlético Alagoinhas
3
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
ASA
CSA
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
ASA
Jacuipense
0
0
D
06.09.25
Ser
ASA
Maranhão
0
3
L
23.08.25
Ser
ASA
Manauara
0
0
D
09.08.25
Ser
ASA
Ferroviario
2
0
W
27.07.25
Ser
ASA
Juazeirense
3
0
W
05.07.25
Ser
ASA
Sergipe
2
2
D
28.06.25
Ser
ASA
Lagarto
1
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
ASA
União Carmolandense
2
2
D
24.05.25
Ser
ASA
Barcelona BA
4
0
W
03.05.25
Ser
ASA
Penedense
1
0
W
26.04.25
Ser
ASA
Jequié
4
2
W
Last matches: Ivinhema
29.06.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Democrata GV
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Ivinhema
CRAC
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Ipatinga
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Operario Ferroviario
0
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Ivinhema
ABECAT Ouvidorense
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ivinhema
Uberlandia
2
1
W

Standings

Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3
ASA Home
10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)