Login Register
ITALY › SERIE A
17.10.2026 18:45
Stadio Olimpico

AS Roma vs Genoa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AS Roma Win 87.3%
Draw 4.3%
Genoa Win 8.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma2.05
Genoa1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
AS Roma AS Roma
WWDLW
25 GF / 17 GA
Genoa Genoa
WLDWL
16 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
2.08
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
2
7
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
7
5.71
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AS Roma AS Roma 12 matches
Genoa Genoa 14 matches
AS Roma Statistic Genoa
5 Wins 5
5 Draws 2
2 Losses 7
25 Goals For 16
17 Goals Against 28
2.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 2
7 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 10
9 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 4
5.71 Shots On Goal 4.38
17.14 Total Shots 15
4.86 Corners 5.75
54.3% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by AS Roma's more proactive style and Genoa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. AS Roma arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 13 points compared to Genoa in 19 on 1, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Genoa. AS Roma come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

AS Roma Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 13 points from 5 games, AS Roma bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 14:3 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Donyell Malen (6 goals), Matías Soulé (2 goals), Manu Koné (2 goals), with creative support from Paulo Dybala (4 assists), Gianluca Mancini (2 assists), Matías Soulé (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Genoa Analysis

Genoa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 1 points from 5 matches. The overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 3:10 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Milutin Osmajić (2 goals), Johan Vásquez (1 goals), with creative support from Lorenzo Colombo (2 assists), Djibril Sow (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AS Roma won 9 times, Genoa won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:17 from AS Roma's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: AS Roma 3-4-2-1 / Genoa 3-4-2-1
Missing players: AS Roma 1, Genoa 1
H2H summary: AS Roma wins 9, draws 4, Genoa wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 18:8 10 16
W D W W W
2 6 5 1 0 11:4 7 16
W W D W W
3 6 4 2 0 14:3 11 14
D D W W W
4 6 4 1 1 6:3 3 13
D W W W L
5 6 3 3 0 11:5 6 12
D W D D W
6 6 3 2 1 9:5 4 11
D W L D W
7 6 3 2 1 9:6 3 11
D L W W W
8 6 3 1 2 10:6 4 10
W D W L L
9 6 3 1 2 9:7 2 10
L W D W W
10 6 3 0 3 8:8 0 9
W L L L W
11 6 2 2 2 10:10 0 8
D L W D W
12 6 2 1 3 7:9 -2 7
W D L W L
13 6 2 0 4 6:12 -6 6
L L W L L
14 6 1 2 3 5:7 -2 5
W D L D L
15 6 1 1 4 9:13 -4 4
L L L L W
16 6 1 1 4 9:15 -6 4
L W L D L
17
Genoa Away
6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
W L D L L
18 6 1 1 4 4:10 -6 4
L W L D L
19 6 1 1 4 7:14 -7 4
L D W L L
20 6 0 0 6 5:16 -11 0
L L L L L
Champions League league stage
Europa League league stage
Play-offs
Relegation