TUNISIA LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
AS Marsa
Match Timeline
ES Zarzis
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
Y. Dao
AS Marsa
🟨
40'
AS Marsa
AS Marsa
🔄
46'
M. Chouchane ↔ D. Nyengue
ES Zarzis
🔄
46'
M. Jertila ↔ A. Ben Dhiaf
ES Zarzis
🔄
65'
A. Ben Hamida ↔ F. Neji
AS Marsa
🔄
73'
F. Aifia ↔ O. Traidi
AS Marsa
🔄
82'
S. Mestari ↔ H. Msallem
AS Marsa
🟨
83'
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
🟨
87'
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 53.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
53.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
AS Marsa Win 66.7%
Draw 8.6%
ES Zarzis Win 24.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Marsa0.84
ES Zarzis1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
AS Marsa AS Marsa
WWDLW
19 GF / 27 GA
ES Zarzis ES Zarzis
WLDWL
24 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
0.76
Average Goals Scored
0.96
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
4
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AS Marsa AS Marsa 25 matches
ES Zarzis ES Zarzis 25 matches
AS Marsa Statistic ES Zarzis
8 Wins 8
1 Draws 8
16 Losses 9
19 Goals For 24
27 Goals Against 24
0.76 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
4 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 10
14 Failed To Score 12
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward ES Zarzis having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. AS Marsa have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring ES Zarzis.

AS Marsa Analysis

With 28 points from 26 games and a place of 12, AS Marsa still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 21:27, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through A. Hadhri (7 goals), A. Ben Hamida (2 goals), Y. Arfaoui (2 goals), with creative support from G. Kalu (1 assists), O. Adejoh (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

ES Zarzis Analysis

From their first 26 matches, ES Zarzis have collected 32 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 24:26 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Nshuti (6 goals), M. Rahmani (6 goals), O. Stanley (5 goals), with creative support from M. Rahmani (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, AS Marsa won 2 times, ES Zarzis won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:0 from AS Marsa's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.5%)
H2H summary: AS Marsa wins 2, draws 0, ES Zarzis wins 0

Lineups

AS Marsa
Formation
ES Zarzis
S. Helal
S. Helal
O. Jebali
O. Jebali
O. Adejoh
O. Adejoh
Y. Arfaoui
Y. Arfaoui
F. Aifia
F. Aifia
M. Chaouch
M. Chaouch
A. Ben Hamida
A. Ben Hamida
S. Mestari
S. Mestari
R. Gneba
R. Gneba
M. Khaloui
M. Khaloui
Y. Dao
Y. Dao
H. Taleb
H. Taleb
A. M. Yassine
A. M. Yassine
Y. Dhiflaoui
Y. Dhiflaoui
G. Mahersi
G. Mahersi
F. Ghouma
F. Ghouma
L. Rjili
L. Rjili
K. Kassab
K. Kassab
M. Chouchane
M. Chouchane
K. Khalfa
K. Khalfa
M. Jertila
M. Jertila
A. Oluwaseun
A. Oluwaseun
AS Marsa 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
23
S. Helal
17
O. Jebali
21
O. Adejoh
5
Y. Arfaoui
10
F. Aifia
↓ 73'
2
M. Chaouch
28
A. Ben Hamida
↓ 65'
6
S. Mestari
↓ 82'
15
R. Gneba
27
M. Khaloui
25
Y. Dao
⚽ 15'
Substitutes
1
A. Soltani
29
F. Neji
↑ 65'
11
O. Traidi
↑ 73'
7
K. Hammami
24
H. Mansour
3
H. Hichri
14
H. Msallem
↑ 82'
26
Victorino Polaco
30
M. Aziz Telli
ES Zarzis 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
H. Taleb
3
A. M. Yassine
18
Y. Dhiflaoui
33
G. Mahersi
35
F. Ghouma
28
L. Rjili
13
K. Kassab
5
M. Chouchane
↓ 46'
6
K. Khalfa
11
M. Jertila
↓ 46'
A. Oluwaseun
Substitutes
32
H. Ghanmi
92
D. Nyengue
↑ 46'
24
M. Zidi
29
M. Rahmani
J. Kilani
7
A. Ben Dhiaf
↑ 46'
10
A. Garreb
27
A. Tajourii
14
Y. Abubakar
Last matches: AS Marsa
12.05.26
Lig
AS Marsa
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2
2
D
09.05.26
Lig
AS Marsa
CS Sfaxien
0
3
L
04.05.26
Lig
AS Marsa
CA Bizertin
2
1
W
25.04.26
Lig
AS Marsa
ES Sahel
0
1
L
19.04.26
Fri
AS Marsa
Club Africain
3
3
D
13.04.26
Lig
AS Marsa
ES Metlaoui
0
1
L
03.04.26
Lig
AS Marsa
Olympique Béja
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lig
AS Marsa
ES Tunis
0
1
L
28.02.26
Lig
AS Marsa
Stade Tunisien
0
4
L
14.02.26
Lig
AS Marsa
AS Soliman
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
AS Marsa
JS Kairouanaise
1
2
L
01.02.26
Lig
AS Marsa
US Monastirienne
0
1
L
28.01.26
Lig
AS Marsa
AS Gabes
1
0
W
23.01.26
Lig
AS Marsa
US Ben Guerdane
0
1
L
17.01.26
Lig
AS Marsa
Club Africain
0
1
L
22.11.25
Lig
AS Marsa
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2
1
W
08.11.25
Lig
AS Marsa
CS Sfaxien
0
2
L
05.11.25
Lig
AS Marsa
CA Bizertin
2
0
W
29.10.25
Lig
AS Marsa
ES Sahel
0
2
L
19.10.25
Lig
AS Marsa
ES Metlaoui
0
1
L
Last matches: ES Zarzis
13.05.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
CA Bizertin
2
0
W
09.05.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
ES Metlaoui
1
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
ES Sahel
3
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
Olympique Béja
2
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
ES Tunis
2
2
D
04.04.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
Stade Tunisien
0
0
D
06.03.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
AS Soliman
0
1
L
27.02.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
JS Kairouanaise
1
1
D
15.02.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
US Monastirienne
0
3
L
07.02.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
AS Gabes
0
1
L
31.01.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
US Ben Guerdane
0
0
D
27.01.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
Club Africain
0
0
D
23.01.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1
2
L
16.01.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
CS Sfaxien
0
2
L
22.11.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
CA Bizertin
3
0
W
09.11.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
ES Metlaoui
0
0
D
05.11.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
ES Sahel
0
1
L
26.10.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
Olympique Béja
3
0
W
22.10.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
ES Tunis
0
0
D
04.10.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
Stade Tunisien
0
3
L
H2H: AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis
30.04.26
H2H
AS Marsa
ES Zarzis
1
0
W
02.11.25
H2H
ES Zarzis
AS Marsa
0
2
W
Last matches: AS Marsa
09.05.26
Lig
AS Marsa
CS Sfaxien
0
3
L
03.04.26
Lig
AS Marsa
Olympique Béja
1
0
W
28.02.26
Lig
AS Marsa
Stade Tunisien
0
4
L
07.02.26
Lig
AS Marsa
JS Kairouanaise
1
2
L
28.01.26
Lig
AS Marsa
AS Gabes
1
0
W
17.01.26
Lig
AS Marsa
Club Africain
0
1
L
22.11.25
Lig
AS Marsa
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2
1
W
05.11.25
Lig
AS Marsa
CA Bizertin
2
0
W
29.10.25
Lig
AS Marsa
ES Sahel
0
2
L
19.10.25
Lig
AS Marsa
ES Metlaoui
0
1
L
01.10.25
Lig
AS Marsa
ES Tunis
0
3
L
18.09.25
Lig
AS Marsa
AS Soliman
1
0
W
27.08.25
Lig
AS Marsa
US Monastirienne
0
0
D
15.08.25
Lig
AS Marsa
US Ben Guerdane
1
0
W
H2H at home: AS Marsa
30.04.26
H2H
AS Marsa
ES Zarzis
1
0
W
Last matches: ES Zarzis
13.05.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
CA Bizertin
2
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
ES Tunis
2
2
D
06.03.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
AS Soliman
0
1
L
15.02.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
US Monastirienne
0
3
L
31.01.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
US Ben Guerdane
0
0
D
23.01.26
Lig
ES Zarzis
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1
2
L
09.11.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
ES Metlaoui
0
0
D
05.11.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
ES Sahel
0
1
L
26.10.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
Olympique Béja
3
0
W
04.10.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
Stade Tunisien
0
3
L
20.09.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
JS Kairouanaise
4
1
W
14.09.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
AS Gabes
1
0
W
22.08.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
Club Africain
2
1
W
10.08.25
Lig
ES Zarzis
CS Sfaxien
2
1
W
H2H away: ES Zarzis
30.04.26
H2H
AS Marsa
ES Zarzis
1
0
L

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 9 2 43:10 33 66
D W W D W
2 30 18 9 3 45:11 34 63
W L W D D
3 30 18 8 4 43:13 30 62
W W W D W
4 30 12 12 6 28:14 14 48
W D L L L
5 30 11 12 7 28:18 10 45
W L L W L
6 30 11 8 11 30:28 2 41
W W W L W
7 30 11 8 11 28:30 -2 41
L W L L W
8 30 9 13 8 19:25 -6 40
D L W W D
9 30 10 6 14 24:33 -9 36
D L L W L
10 30 8 11 11 18:22 -4 35
L D L W W
11 30 11 2 17 26:33 -7 35
D L W W L
12 30 8 9 13 18:29 -11 33
L L L L D
13 30 9 5 16 18:39 -21 32
D W L W L
14 30 9 4 17 20:41 -21 31
D W W L L
15 30 6 9 15 15:31 -16 27
L W W D W
16 30 3 9 18 11:37 -26 18
L L L L D
Champions League
CAF Confederation Cup
Relegation