PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Referee: R. Baixinho
Arouca
Match Timeline
Santa Clara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Javi Sánchez
Arouca
8'
H. Lee · Assist: Tiago Esgaio
Arouca
10'
Gabriel Silva · Assist: Serginho
Santa Clara
🔄
22'
Guilherme Romao ↔ Paulo Victor
Santa Clara
🟨
30'
Serginho
Santa Clara
🟨
44'
José Tavares
Santa Clara
🟨
45+3'
Hyun-ju Lee
Arouca
🔄
46'
J. Sanchez ↔ M. Rocha
Arouca
🔄
59'
Brenner ↔ Welinton Torrao
Santa Clara
🔄
64'
B. Kuipers ↔ A. Dante
Arouca
🟨
66'
Hyun-ju Lee
Arouca
🟥
66'
Hyun-ju Lee
Arouca
🔄
75'
I. Barbero ↔ M. Flores
Arouca
🔄
76'
N. Djouahra ↔ P. Gozalbez
Arouca
🔄
76'
Diogo Calila ↔ Lucas Soares
Santa Clara
🔄
76'
G. Paciencia ↔ Elias Manoel
Santa Clara
🔄
76'
Gustavo Klismahn ↔ Vinicius Lopes
Santa Clara
84'
Tiago Esgaio · Assist: T. Fukui
Arouca
🔄
85'
T. Fukui ↔ D. Monteiro
Arouca
🟨
88'
Frederico Venâncio
Santa Clara
90'
Elias Manoel · Assist: Welinton Torrao
Santa Clara

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 36.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
36.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Arouca Win 59.2%
Draw 9.8%
Santa Clara Win 31.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arouca1.21
Santa Clara1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arouca Arouca
WWDLW
39 GF / 60 GA
Santa Clara Santa Clara
WLDWL
35 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
16
BTTS Yes
15
20
Over 2.5
14
3.42
Shots on Goal
2.95

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arouca Arouca 31 matches
Santa Clara Santa Clara 37 matches
Arouca Statistic Santa Clara
10 Wins 10
5 Draws 10
16 Losses 17
39 Goals For 35
60 Goals Against 42
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
16 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 21
20 Over 2.5 14
14 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 13
9 Failed To Score 14
3.42 Shots On Goal 2.95
10.48 Total Shots 9.81
3.68 Corners 4.14
49.9% Ball Possession 42.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Santa Clara. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Arouca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Santa Clara in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santa Clara having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Arouca Analysis

Arouca are currently 11 in the standings with 35 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 5 draws, and 16 losses, while the 39:60 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Trezza (8 goals), Ivan Barbero (7 goals), N. Djouahra (6 goals), with creative support from N. Djouahra (3 assists), H. Lee (3 assists), J. Fontan (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santa Clara Analysis

Santa Clara sit 13 with 32 points after 31 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 28:38 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vinícius Lopes (6 goals), Gabriel Silva (5 goals), Serginho (4 goals), with creative support from Serginho (2 assists), Wendell (2 assists), Vinícius Lopes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Arouca won 5 times, Santa Clara won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:9 from Arouca's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.91 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.2%)
Predicted formations: Arouca 4-2-3-1 / Santa Clara 4-4-2
H2H summary: Arouca wins 5, draws 4, Santa Clara wins 2
Stats
Arouca Arouca
Santa Clara Santa Clara
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 6
15 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 3
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Goal 4
3 Shots off Goal 5
1 Blocked Shots 3
3 Shots insidebox 9
6 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
427 Total passes 404
378 Passes accurate 356
0.78 expected_goals 1.86
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Arouca
Formation
Santa Clara
I. De Arruabarrena
I. De Arruabarrena
Tiago Esgaio
🎯
Tiago Esgaio
J. Sanchez
J. Sanchez
J. Fontan
J. Fontan
B. Kuipers
B. Kuipers
T. Fukui
🎯
T. Fukui
E. van Ee
E. van Ee
A. Trezza
A. Trezza
H. Lee
H. Lee
N. Djouahra
N. Djouahra
I. Barbero
I. Barbero
Gabriel Batista
Gabriel Batista
Diogo Calila
Diogo Calila
S. Lima
S. Lima
F. Venancio
F. Venancio
Guilherme Romao
Guilherme Romao
J. Tavares
J. Tavares
Serginho
🎯
Serginho
Brenner
Brenner
Gustavo Klismahn
Gustavo Klismahn
Gabriel Silva
Gabriel Silva
G. Paciencia
G. Paciencia
Arouca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
I. De Arruabarrena
G
28
Tiago Esgaio
⚽ 84' 🎯 8'
D
15
J. Sanchez
↓ 46' 🟨 5'
D
3
J. Fontan
D
25
B. Kuipers
↓ 64'
D
21
T. Fukui
🎯 84' ↓ 85'
M
22
E. van Ee
M
19
A. Trezza
M
14
H. Lee
⚽ 8' 🟨 45+3' 🟨 66' 🟥 66'
M
7
N. Djouahra
↓ 76'
M
17
I. Barbero
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
30
J. Vinarcik
G
44
A. Dante
↑ 64'
D
89
Pedro Santos
M
4
M. Rocha
↑ 46'
D
9
F. Mayulu
F
24
B. Mansilla
F
10
P. Gozalbez
↑ 76'
M
6
D. Monteiro
↑ 85'
D
46
M. Flores
↑ 75'
M
Santa Clara 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Gabriel Batista
G
2
Diogo Calila
↓ 76'
D
23
S. Lima
D
21
F. Venancio
🟨 88'
D
5
Guilherme Romao
↓ 22'
D
65
J. Tavares
🟨 44'
M
35
Serginho
🎯 10' 🟨 30'
M
11
Brenner
↓ 59'
M
77
Gustavo Klismahn
↓ 76'
M
10
Gabriel Silva
⚽ 10'
M
39
G. Paciencia
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
50
J. Afonso
G
4
P. Pacheco
D
42
Lucas Soares
↑ 76'
D
64
Paulo Victor
↑ 22'
D
49
Welinton Torrao
🎯 90' ↑ 59'
F
37
Darlan
M
7
Elias Manoel
⚽ 90' ↑ 76'
F
70
Vinicius Lopes
↑ 76'
F
78
Andrey
M
Last matches: Arouca
16.05.26
Pri
Arouca
Tondela
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Arouca
GIL Vicente
3
1
W
24.04.26
Pri
Arouca
Alverca
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Arouca
Estrela
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Arouca
SC Braga
0
1
L
06.04.26
Pri
Arouca
Estoril
3
2
W
21.03.26
Pri
Arouca
Moreirense
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Arouca
Benfica
1
2
L
06.03.26
Pri
Arouca
Famalicao
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Arouca
FC Porto
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Arouca
Nacional
3
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Arouca
Casa Pia
2
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Arouca
Guimaraes
3
2
W
31.01.26
Pri
Arouca
Rio Ave
3
0
W
24.01.26
Pri
Arouca
Sporting CP
1
2
L
17.01.26
Pri
Arouca
AVS
1
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
Arouca
Tondela
1
3
L
28.12.25
Pri
Arouca
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
21.12.25
Pri
Arouca
Santa Clara
0
0
D
14.12.25
Pri
Arouca
Alverca
1
0
W
Last matches: Santa Clara
16.05.26
Pri
Santa Clara
FC Porto
0
1
L
11.05.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Nacional
2
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
SC Braga
2
1
W
18.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Sporting CP
2
4
L
21.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
AVS
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Tondela
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Alverca
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Benfica
1
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Estrela
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Estoril
2
4
L
24.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Moreirense
0
1
L
18.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Famalicao
0
1
L
11.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Nacional
3
3
D
04.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
FC Porto
0
1
L
21.12.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Arouca
0
0
D
15.12.25
Pri
Santa Clara
SC Braga
0
1
L
H2H: Arouca vs Santa Clara
02.05.26
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
2
2
D
21.12.25
H2H
Santa Clara
Arouca
0
0
D
26.04.25
H2H
Santa Clara
Arouca
2
0
L
15.12.24
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
1
0
W
11.02.23
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
1
0
W
16.12.22
H2H
Santa Clara
Arouca
1
2
W
20.08.22
H2H
Santa Clara
Arouca
1
2
W
15.04.22
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
1
1
D
05.12.21
H2H
Santa Clara
Arouca
2
1
L
11.04.18
H2H
Santa Clara
Arouca
0
0
D
26.11.17
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
2
0
W
Last matches: Arouca
16.05.26
Pri
Arouca
Tondela
3
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Arouca
Estrela
1
0
W
06.04.26
Pri
Arouca
Estoril
3
2
W
14.03.26
Pri
Arouca
Benfica
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Arouca
Nacional
3
0
W
07.02.26
Pri
Arouca
Guimaraes
3
2
W
24.01.26
Pri
Arouca
Sporting CP
1
2
L
28.12.25
Pri
Arouca
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
14.12.25
Pri
Arouca
Alverca
1
0
W
01.12.25
Pri
Arouca
SC Braga
0
4
L
02.11.25
Pri
Arouca
Moreirense
0
2
L
05.10.25
Pri
Arouca
Famalicao
1
1
D
29.09.25
Pri
Arouca
FC Porto
0
4
L
14.09.25
Pri
Arouca
Casa Pia
0
2
L
23.08.25
Pri
Arouca
Rio Ave
3
3
D
09.08.25
Pri
Arouca
AVS
3
1
W
H2H at home: Arouca
02.05.26
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
2
2
D
15.12.24
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
1
0
W
11.02.23
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
1
0
W
15.04.22
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
1
1
D
26.11.17
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
2
0
W
Last matches: Santa Clara
16.05.26
Pri
Santa Clara
FC Porto
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Sporting CP
2
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
AVS
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Tondela
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Alverca
1
1
D
07.02.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Estrela
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Moreirense
0
1
L
11.01.26
Pri
Santa Clara
Nacional
3
3
D
15.12.25
Pri
Santa Clara
SC Braga
0
1
L
30.11.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
1
1
D
03.11.25
Pri
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
0
1
L
04.10.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
1
2
L
12.09.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Benfica
1
1
D
06.09.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Estoril
1
0
W
28.08.25
UEF
Santa Clara
Shamrock Rovers
0
0
D
10.08.25
Pri
Santa Clara
Famalicao
0
3
L
07.08.25
UEF
Santa Clara
Larne
3
0
W
24.07.25
UEF
Santa Clara
NK Varazdin
1
2
L
H2H away: Santa Clara
02.05.26
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
2
2
D
15.12.24
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
1
0
L
11.02.23
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
1
0
L
15.04.22
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
1
1
D
26.11.17
H2H
Arouca
Santa Clara
2
0
L