PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
02.05.2026 14:30
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Referee: R. Baixinho
Arouca
Match Timeline
Santa Clara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Javi Sánchez
Arouca
⚽
8'
H. Lee · Assist: Tiago Esgaio
Arouca
⚽
10'
Gabriel Silva · Assist: Serginho
Santa Clara
🔄
22'
Guilherme Romao ↔ Paulo Victor
Santa Clara
🟨
30'
Serginho
Santa Clara
🟨
44'
José Tavares
Santa Clara
🟨
45+3'
Hyun-ju Lee
Arouca
🔄
46'
J. Sanchez ↔ M. Rocha
Arouca
🔄
59'
Brenner ↔ Welinton Torrao
Santa Clara
🔄
64'
B. Kuipers ↔ A. Dante
Arouca
🟨
66'
Hyun-ju Lee
Arouca
🟥
66'
Hyun-ju Lee
Arouca
🔄
75'
I. Barbero ↔ M. Flores
Arouca
🔄
76'
N. Djouahra ↔ P. Gozalbez
Arouca
🔄
76'
Diogo Calila ↔ Lucas Soares
Santa Clara
🔄
76'
G. Paciencia ↔ Elias Manoel
Santa Clara
🔄
76'
Gustavo Klismahn ↔ Vinicius Lopes
Santa Clara
⚽
84'
Tiago Esgaio · Assist: T. Fukui
Arouca
🔄
85'
T. Fukui ↔ D. Monteiro
Arouca
🟨
88'
Frederico Venâncio
Santa Clara
⚽
90'
Elias Manoel · Assist: Welinton Torrao
Santa Clara

Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 36.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
36.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Arouca Win 59.2%
Draw 9.8%
Santa Clara Win 31.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arouca1.21
Santa Clara1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arouca Arouca
WWDLW
39 GF / 60 GA
Santa Clara Santa Clara
WLDWL
35 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
16
BTTS Yes
15
20
Over 2.5
14
3.42
Shots on Goal
2.95

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arouca Arouca 31 matches
Santa Clara Santa Clara 37 matches
Arouca Statistic Santa Clara
10 Wins 10
5 Draws 10
16 Losses 17
39 Goals For 35
60 Goals Against 42
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
16 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 21
20 Over 2.5 14
14 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 13
9 Failed To Score 14
3.42 Shots On Goal 2.95
10.48 Total Shots 9.81
3.68 Corners 4.14
49.9% Ball Possession 42.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Santa Clara. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Arouca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Santa Clara in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santa Clara having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Arouca Analysis

Arouca are currently 11 in the standings with 35 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 5 draws, and 16 losses, while the 39:60 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Trezza (8 goals), Ivan Barbero (7 goals), N. Djouahra (6 goals), with creative support from N. Djouahra (3 assists), H. Lee (3 assists), J. Fontan (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santa Clara Analysis

Santa Clara sit 13 with 32 points after 31 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 28:38 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vinícius Lopes (6 goals), Gabriel Silva (5 goals), Serginho (4 goals), with creative support from Serginho (2 assists), Wendell (2 assists), Vinícius Lopes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Arouca won 5 times, Santa Clara won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:12 from Arouca's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.2%)
Predicted formations: Arouca 4-2-3-1 / Santa Clara 4-4-2
H2H summary: Arouca wins 5, draws 4, Santa Clara wins 3

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2