01.11.2026 15:30

Arouca

1 - 0

Nacional

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Arouca vs Nacional H2H Stats

Compare football head-to-head records, previous meetings, wins, draws, BTTS and Over 2.5 trends before reading the match prediction.

View today's football H2H stats

Arouca

Match Timeline

Nacional

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Arouca vs Nacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 57.5%

Odds -

BTTS

Yes

Probability 67.1%

Odds -

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 72%

Odds -

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	57.5%	-	▥
BTTS	Yes	67.1%	-	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	-	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	74.1%	-	▥
HT / FT	Home / Home	-	-	▥
Correct Score	2-1	-	-	▥

Probability Distribution

Arouca Win 57.5%

Draw 22.6%

Nacional Win 19.9%

Expected Goals (xG)

Arouca1.39

Nacional0.99

Recent Form (Last 5)

Arouca

W W D L D

5 GF / 4 GA

Nacional

W L L L L

4 GF / 12 GA

Key Stats

1.07

Average Goals Scored

1.07

0.86

Average Goals Conceded

1.86

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

3.78

Shots on Goal

3.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arouca 14 matches

Nacional 14 matches

Arouca	Statistic	Nacional
6	Wins	2
4	Draws	4
4	Losses	8
15	Goals For	15
12	Goals Against	26
1.07	Avg Goals Scored	1.07
0.86	Avg Goals Conceded	1.86
4	BTTS Yes	7
8	Over 1.5	11
6	Over 2.5	7
2	Over 3.5	6
8	Clean Sheets	3
5	Failed To Score	5
3.78	Shots On Goal	3.22
11.22	Total Shots	10.56
3.11	Corners	4.33
51.4%	Ball Possession	47.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Arouca won 7 times, Nacional won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:14 from Arouca's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 1X (80.1%)

Predicted formations: Arouca 4-2-3-1 / Nacional 4-2-3-1

H2H summary: Arouca wins 7, draws 5, Nacional wins 2

Standings

Primeira Liga

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	FC Porto	11	11	0	0	27:5	22	33	W W W W W
2	Benfica	11	9	1	1	30:10	20	28	W W W W L
3	Sporting CP	11	7	3	1	24:11	13	24	W W L W D
4	Santa Clara	11	6	3	2	16:8	8	21	L W L W D
5	Arouca Home	11	6	2	3	13:8	5	20	L W W W D
6	Academico Viseu	11	6	2	3	15:13	2	20	L W W W W
7	GIL Vicente	11	5	3	3	10:8	2	18	W D L W W
8	SC Braga	11	5	2	4	13:11	2	17	W W L L L
9	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	13:18	-5	14	L W W L D
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	15:14	1	13	W L W L W
11	Alverca	11	3	3	5	14:15	-1	12	D L L W W
12	Estrela	11	2	4	5	17:22	-5	10	L L L L L
13	Nacional Away	11	3	1	7	11:19	-8	10	W L W L L
14	Vitória SC	11	2	3	6	11:12	-1	9	L D W L D
15	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	9:21	-12	8	L L L D L
16	Casa Pia	11	2	2	7	6:20	-14	8	D L W L W
17	Rio Ave	11	2	1	8	9:24	-15	7	L L L W L
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	5:19	-14	2	L L L L L