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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
11.10.2026 19:30
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Referee: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe
Arouca
Match Timeline
Estrela
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
Iván Barbero · Assist: Näis Djouahra
Arouca
⚽
45+4'
Ianis Stoica
Estrela
🟨
45+6'
Pablo Gozálbez
Arouca
🟨
45+8'
Iván Barbero
Arouca
🟨
45+8'
Abraham Marcus
Estrela
🟨
50'
Max Scholze
Estrela
🔄
57'
Pablo Gozálbez ↔ Pedro Santos
Arouca
🔄
61'
Ianis Stoica ↔ Beni Souza
Estrela
🔄
62'
Max Scholze ↔ Jefferson Encada
Estrela
🟨
62'
Pedro Santos
Arouca
🔄
65'
Iván Barbero ↔ Dylan Nandín
Arouca
🔄
65'
Näis Djouahra ↔ Gabrijel Rukavina
Arouca
🔄
79'
Taichi Fukui ↔ Lee Hyun-ju
Arouca
🔄
79'
Alfonso Trezza ↔ Brian Mansilla
Arouca
🟨
80'
Taichi Fukui
Arouca
🔄
82'
Eddy Doué ↔ Emerson Vanga
Estrela
🟨
88'
Jose Fontán
Arouca
🔄
90+1'
Lovro Zvonarek ↔ Alisson Souza
Estrela
🔄
90+1'
Santiago Serra ↔ Kevin Hoog Jansson
Estrela

Arouca vs Estrela Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.6%
Odds 2.06
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.89
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.6%
2.06 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.89 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.7%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Arouca Win 57.6%
Draw 8%
Estrela Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arouca1.22
Estrela1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arouca Arouca
WWDLW
13 GF / 12 GA
Estrela Estrela
WLDWL
26 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.86
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
4
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
8
3.86
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arouca Arouca 12 matches
Estrela Estrela 14 matches
Arouca Statistic Estrela
4 Wins 6
4 Draws 6
4 Losses 2
13 Goals For 26
12 Goals Against 20
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
4 BTTS Yes 10
8 Over 1.5 13
6 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 1
3.86 Shots On Goal 4.43
11 Total Shots 13
2.86 Corners 4
50.7% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Arouca's more proactive style and Estrela's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Estrela. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Arouca Analysis

Arouca arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 11 points after 7 matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 10:7 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Barbero (4 goals), José Fontán (2 goals), D. Nandín (2 goals), with creative support from N. Djouahra (4 assists), A. Trezza (1 assists), Pablo Gozálbez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Estrela Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Estrela have collected 10 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 14:14 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Stoica (4 goals), A. Marcus (4 goals), L. Antonetti (4 goals), with creative support from Eddy Doue (3 assists), I. Stoica (2 assists), A. Marcus (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Arouca won 3 times, Estrela won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:6 from Arouca's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92%)
Predicted formations: Arouca 4-2-3-1 / Estrela 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Arouca wins 3, draws 1, Estrela wins 2

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 20:4 16 24
W W W W W
2 8 6 1 1 24:7 17 19
W L W W W
3 8 5 3 0 20:9 11 18
W D D W W
4 8 5 3 0 12:4 8 18
W D W W D
5 8 4 2 2 11:7 4 14
W D L D W
6 8 4 2 2 11:10 1 14
W W W W L
7 7 3 2 2 6:5 1 11
W D L L D
8 8 3 2 3 13:12 1 11
W W W L D
9 7 3 2 2 8:8 0 11
L D W L W
10 8 2 4 2 14:15 -1 10
L L D W D
11 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
L D L L L
12 8 2 2 4 8:15 -7 8
L D W L L
13 8 1 4 3 10:11 -1 7
L W D D D
14 8 2 1 5 8:17 -9 7
W L D L L
15 8 1 2 5 5:10 -5 5
L D L D L
16 8 1 1 6 9:18 -9 4
L L L L L
17 8 1 1 6 3:17 -14 4
L W L D L
18 8 0 2 6 4:12 -8 2
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2