POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
13.05.2026 16:00
Stadion Miejski w Gdyni
Referee: M. Szczerbowicz
Arka Gdynia
Match Timeline
Gornik Zabrze
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
61'
R. Massimo ↔ J. Kubicki
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
63'
V. Gutkovskis ↔ E. D. Espiau Hernandez
Arka Gdynia
🔄
72'
D. Zator ↔ M. Navarro
Arka Gdynia
🔄
72'
P. Szysz ↔ O. Kubiak
Arka Gdynia
🔄
81'
M. Rzuchowski ↔ A. Nguiamba
Arka Gdynia
🔄
81'
L. Sadilek ↔ Y. Ikia Dimi
Gornik Zabrze
🟨
86'
Rafał Janicki
Gornik Zabrze
🟨
89'
Yvan Ikia Dimi
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
90'
M. Khlan ↔ P. Bochniewicz
Gornik Zabrze

Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 84.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
84.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Arka Gdynia Win 35.7%
Draw 9.4%
Gornik Zabrze Win 54.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arka Gdynia1.08
Gornik Zabrze1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
WWDLW
32 GF / 55 GA
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze
WLDWL
43 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
16
BTTS Yes
16
19
Over 2.5
15
3.35
Shots on Goal
4.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 31 matches
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 31 matches
Arka Gdynia Statistic Gornik Zabrze
9 Wins 14
8 Draws 7
14 Losses 10
32 Goals For 43
55 Goals Against 36
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
16 BTTS Yes 16
23 Over 1.5 22
19 Over 2.5 15
12 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 9
3.35 Shots On Goal 4.39
10.32 Total Shots 15.84
4.29 Corners 5.68
45.3% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Gornik Zabrze's more proactive style and Arka Gdynia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gornik Zabrze. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Arka Gdynia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gornik Zabrze in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gornik Zabrze having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 49 points while Arka Gdynia sit 17 on 35, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Arka Gdynia Analysis

With 35 points from 31 games and a place of 17, Arka Gdynia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 14 defeats with a 32:55 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. D. Espiau Hernandez (5 goals), N. Rusyn (4 goals), S. Kerk (4 goals), with creative support from S. Kerk (7 assists), Marc Navarro (4 assists), Kike Hermoso (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gornik Zabrze Analysis

Gornik Zabrze approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 49 points after 31 outings. The return of 14 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with goals at 43:36, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through O. Sow (7 goals), S. Liseth (7 goals), Patrik Hellebrand (4 goals), with creative support from J. Kubicki (4 assists), Lukáš Ambros (4 assists), Maksym Khlan (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Arka Gdynia won 2 times, Gornik Zabrze won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:15 from Arka Gdynia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Arka Gdynia 4-2-3-1 / Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3
H2H summary: Arka Gdynia wins 2, draws 3, Gornik Zabrze wins 5

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation