BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Arda
Referee: G. Ginchev
Arda Kardzhali
Match Timeline
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
A. Vutov · Assist: A. Shinyashiki
Arda Kardzhali
13'
A. Vutov · Assist: D. Velkovski
Arda Kardzhali
25'
A. Vutov · Assist: A. Shinyashiki
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
35'
A. Kabov ↔ B. Karagaren
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
46'
F. Eboa ↔ D. Idowu
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
46'
D. Velkovski ↔ M. Paskalev
Arda Kardzhali
🟨
48'
Calal Huseinov
Arda Kardzhali
52'
C. Huseynov · Assist: A. Vutov
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
57'
Francisco Politino ↔ A. Velev
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
57'
D. Iliev ↔ G. B. Chorbadzhiyski
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
62'
Martin Paskalev
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
62'
A. Vutov ↔ S. Kovachev
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
71'
M. Vangelov ↔ V. Bozhinov
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
71'
M. Trdan ↔ C. Longville
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
72'
A. Shinyashiki ↔ B. Akandzha
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
80'
K. Kostov ↔ S. Vitanov
Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 97.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
97.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Arda Kardzhali Win 43.7%
Draw 15.2%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Win 41.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arda Kardzhali1.01
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
WWDLW
41 GF / 37 GA
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv
WLDWL
34 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
1.03
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
11
BTTS Yes
14
13
Over 2.5
9
2.92
Shots on Goal
2.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 40 matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 33 matches
Arda Kardzhali Statistic Lokomotiv Plovdiv
15 Wins 13
11 Draws 13
14 Losses 7
41 Goals For 34
37 Goals Against 32
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
11 BTTS Yes 14
23 Over 1.5 22
13 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 4
17 Clean Sheets 13
19 Failed To Score 9
2.92 Shots On Goal 2.77
7.35 Total Shots 7.37
2.73 Corners 2.5
35.4% Ball Possession 31.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Arda Kardzhali's more proactive style and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lokomotiv Plovdiv. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Arda Kardzhali have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Arda Kardzhali Analysis

Arda Kardzhali approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 45 points from 33 matches. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 9 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 33:31 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Karagaren (7 goals), A. Vutov (4 goals), Dimitar Velkovski (3 goals), with creative support from Svetoslav Kovachev (4 assists), L. Kotev (4 assists), B. Karagaren (3 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Analysis

Lokomotiv Plovdiv come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 52 points from 33 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 13 draws, and 7 losses, while the 34:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Perea (7 goals), J. Zwarts (6 goals), Lucas Ryan (4 goals), with creative support from Cătălin Itu (6 assists), Parvizdzhon Umarbaev (5 assists), J. Lamy (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Arda Kardzhali won 4 times, Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:18 from Arda Kardzhali's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.62 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.8%)
Predicted formations: Arda Kardzhali 4-2-3-1 / Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Arda Kardzhali wins 4, draws 3, Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins 6

Lineups

Arda Kardzhali
Formation
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
A. Gospodinov
A. Gospodinov
V. Velev
V. Velev
F. Eboa
F. Eboa
P. Krachunov
P. Krachunov
D. Velkovski
🎯
D. Velkovski
C. Huseynov
C. Huseynov
L. Kotev
L. Kotev
A. Kabov
A. Kabov
A. Vutov
⚽ 3 🎯
A. Vutov
A. Shinyashiki
🎯
A. Shinyashiki
W. Samake
W. Samake
P. Zovko
P. Zovko
Z. Dinev
Z. Dinev
K. Kostov
K. Kostov
R. Palazov
R. Palazov
D. Kirashki
D. Kirashki
S. Gochev
S. Gochev
M. Trdan
M. Trdan
J. Lamy
J. Lamy
D. Iliev
D. Iliev
Francisco Politino
Francisco Politino
M. Vangelov
M. Vangelov
Arda Kardzhali 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Gospodinov
G
21
V. Velev
D
93
F. Eboa
↓ 46'
D
6
P. Krachunov
D
35
D. Velkovski
🎯 13' ↓ 46'
D
18
C. Huseynov
⚽ 52' 🟨 48'
D
80
L. Kotev
M
8
A. Kabov
↓ 35'
M
39
A. Vutov
⚽ 2' ⚽ 13' ⚽ 25' 🎯 52' ↓ 62'
M
11
A. Shinyashiki
🎯 2' 🎯 25' ↓ 72'
M
30
W. Samake
F
Substitutes
92
M. Yusuf
G
4
D. Idowu
↑ 46'
M
10
S. Kovachev
↑ 62'
M
20
S. Yusein
M
23
E. Viyachki
D
24
M. Paskalev
↑ 46' 🟨 62'
D
26
B. Akandzha
↑ 72'
M
99
B. Karagaren
↑ 35'
M
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
40
P. Zovko
G
11
Z. Dinev
44
K. Kostov
↓ 80'
D
4
R. Palazov
D
16
D. Kirashki
D
21
S. Gochev
3
M. Trdan
↓ 71'
M
99
J. Lamy
M
14
D. Iliev
↓ 57'
F
10
Francisco Politino
↓ 57'
M
19
M. Vangelov
↓ 71'
Substitutes
1
S. Georgiev
G
5
P. Petrov
33
V. Bozhinov
↑ 71'
M
94
E. Mishev
9
A. Velev
↑ 57'
F
23
C. Longville
↑ 71'
F
29
G. B. Chorbadzhiyski
↑ 57'
M
13
S. Vitanov
↑ 80'
Last matches: Arda Kardzhali
24.07.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Slavia Sofia
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Septemvri Sofia
1
1
D
10.07.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Vratsa
0
1
L
07.07.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Beitar Jerusalem
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
2
L
01.07.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Rilski Sportist
2
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv
1
2
L
25.05.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
3
2
W
12.05.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv
2
1
W
08.05.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
2
L
03.05.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
26.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv
0
2
L
15.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Ludogorets
1
0
W
09.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Levski Sofia
0
1
L
04.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Montana
2
1
W
21.03.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Septemvri Sofia
4
1
W
16.03.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Dobrudzha
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Vratsa
0
1
L
04.03.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
27.02.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Spartak Varna
1
0
W
Last matches: Lokomotiv Plovdiv
18.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
0
1
L
08.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Rilski Sportist
2
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
2
0
W
29.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
0
0
D
25.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
2
1
W
12.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
0
2
L
08.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
2
0
W
03.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
2
0
W
26.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
0
1
L
13.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Beroe
0
0
D
08.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
1
1
D
03.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
1
0
W
22.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Vratsa
2
1
W
13.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
1
0
W
09.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Levski Sofia
0
1
L
05.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
CSKA 1948
0
5
L
02.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
1
1
D
21.02.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
1
1
D
15.02.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
1
1
D
08.02.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
2
0
W
H2H: Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
04.07.26
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
2
0
L
16.05.26
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
0
W
08.05.26
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
2
0
L
30.04.26
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
1
1
D
22.04.26
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
4
L
06.12.25
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
0
2
W
11.08.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
0
D
05.07.25
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
15.01.25
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
23.11.24
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
2
W
20.07.24
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
1
0
L
03.07.24
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
18.02.24
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
2
L
08.09.23
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2
1
W
18.08.23
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
1
0
L
Last matches: Arda Kardzhali
24.07.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Slavia Sofia
1
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Beitar Jerusalem
0
0
D
03.05.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
26.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv
0
2
L
15.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Ludogorets
1
0
W
04.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Montana
2
1
W
16.03.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Dobrudzha
2
0
W
27.02.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Spartak Varna
1
0
W
14.02.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Slavia Sofia
2
1
W
29.01.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Neftchi
1
0
W
26.01.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
FC UFA
2
1
W
15.01.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Levski Karlovo
3
0
W
02.12.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv
0
0
D
22.11.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
3
0
W
02.11.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Levski Sofia
0
3
L
20.10.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Septemvri Sofia
0
1
L
28.09.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Vratsa
0
2
L
22.09.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
1
L
18.09.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
31.08.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Beroe
2
2
D
H2H at home: Arda Kardzhali
16.05.26
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
0
W
22.04.26
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
4
L
11.08.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
0
D
23.11.24
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
2
W
18.02.24
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
2
L
08.09.23
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2
1
W
Last matches: Lokomotiv Plovdiv
18.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
0
1
L
08.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Rilski Sportist
2
0
W
29.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
0
0
D
12.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
0
2
L
03.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
2
0
W
13.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Beroe
0
0
D
08.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
1
1
D
22.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Vratsa
2
1
W
09.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Levski Sofia
0
1
L
02.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
1
1
D
08.02.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
2
0
W
22.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Napredak
1
0
W
03.12.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
23.11.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Dobrudzha
1
1
D
24.10.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
2
2
D
03.10.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
2
2
D
20.09.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
CSKA 1948
0
4
L
30.08.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
2
1
W
23.08.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
1
1
D
11.08.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
H2H away: Lokomotiv Plovdiv
16.05.26
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
0
L
22.04.26
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
4
W
11.08.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
0
D
23.11.24
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
2
L
18.02.24
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
2
W
08.09.23
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2
1
L

Standings

A PFG: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 4 4 64:22 42 70
D W D W W
2 30 17 9 4 57:20 37 60
L D W W W
3 30 18 5 7 50:31 19 59
W W L W W
4 30 16 8 6 43:23 20 56
D W W W L
5 30 11 13 6 30:33 -3 46
D D W W W
6 30 11 11 8 33:26 7 44
L D L L W
7 30 12 8 10 33:27 6 44
W L W W W
8 30 11 7 12 40:37 3 40
W D W W L
9 30 10 9 11 36:33 3 39
D L W L D
10 30 9 11 10 24:26 -2 38
W L D L W
11 30 9 10 11 40:39 1 37
L W L L W
12 30 5 12 13 25:50 -25 27
D W L L L
13 30 7 5 18 23:43 -20 26
L L D L L
14 30 7 5 18 25:58 -33 26
D W D L L
15 30 4 11 15 19:44 -25 23
D L L W L
16 30 3 8 19 15:45 -30 17
D L L L L
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