BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Arda
Referee: R. Gidzhenov
Arda Kardzhali
Match Timeline
Cherno More Varna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Vasil Panayotov
Cherno More Varna
🟨
56'
Dani Martín
Cherno More Varna
🔄
59'
N. Zlatev ↔ G. Lazarov
Cherno More Varna
🔄
68'
D. Teles ↔ A. Calcan
Cherno More Varna
🔄
68'
V. Drobarov ↔ R. Stefanov
Cherno More Varna
🔄
72'
S. Yusein ↔ A. Shinyashiki
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
72'
W. Samake ↔ Patrick Luan
Arda Kardzhali
🟨
86'
Svetoslav Kovachev
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
90+3'
B. Karagaren ↔ P. Krachunov
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
90+4'
C. Sidney ↔ T. Panov
Cherno More Varna

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Arda Kardzhali Win 52.9%
Draw 9.6%
Cherno More Varna Win 37.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Arda Kardzhali1.01
Cherno More Varna0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
WWDLW
39 GF / 34 GA
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna
WLDWL
34 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.03
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
10
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
13
3.12
Shots on Goal
2.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 37 matches
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 33 matches
Arda Kardzhali Statistic Cherno More Varna
14 Wins 12
10 Draws 11
13 Losses 10
39 Goals For 34
34 Goals Against 31
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
10 BTTS Yes 13
21 Over 1.5 19
12 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 7
16 Clean Sheets 15
17 Failed To Score 12
3.12 Shots On Goal 2.48
7.56 Total Shots 6.55
2.74 Corners 3.06
36.8% Ball Possession 31.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cherno More Varna. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Arda Kardzhali expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Cherno More Varna in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cherno More Varna having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cherno More Varna arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Arda Kardzhali Analysis

Arda Kardzhali are currently 7 in the standings with 44 points from 31 matches. The record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 33:29 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Karagaren (7 goals), A. Vutov (4 goals), Dimitar Velkovski (3 goals), with creative support from Svetoslav Kovachev (4 assists), L. Kotev (4 assists), B. Karagaren (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Cherno More Varna Analysis

With 47 points from 31 games and a place of 5, Cherno More Varna still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 12 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 34:26, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through G. Lazarov (8 goals), Nikolay Zlatev (5 goals), C. Sidney (4 goals), with creative support from A. Donchev (4 assists), C. Sidney (3 assists), V. Panayotov (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Arda Kardzhali won 3 times, Cherno More Varna won 4 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:17 from Arda Kardzhali's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.4%)
Predicted formations: Arda Kardzhali 4-4-2 / Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Arda Kardzhali wins 3, draws 8, Cherno More Varna wins 4
Stats
Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
9
Blocked Shots
3
8 Corner Kicks 1
12 Fouls 15
3 Offsides 0
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Goal 2
4 Shots off Goal 3
9 Blocked Shots 3
8 Shots insidebox 4
7 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
494 Total passes 372
407 Passes accurate 292
1.93 expected_goals 0.34
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Arda Kardzhali
Formation
Cherno More Varna
A. Gospodinov
A. Gospodinov
Gustavo Cascardo
Gustavo Cascardo
F. Eboa
F. Eboa
E. Viyachki
E. Viyachki
D. Velkovski
D. Velkovski
L. Kotev
L. Kotev
C. Huseynov
C. Huseynov
S. Kovachev
S. Kovachev
S. Yusein
S. Yusein
B. Karagaren
B. Karagaren
W. Samake
W. Samake
K. Tomov
K. Tomov
V. Drobarov
V. Drobarov
Z. Atanasov
Z. Atanasov
Joao Bandaro
Joao Bandaro
E. Tombak
E. Tombak
V. Panayotov
V. Panayotov
A. Chandarov
A. Chandarov
D. Teles
D. Teles
D. Martin
D. Martin
C. Sidney
C. Sidney
N. Zlatev
N. Zlatev
Arda Kardzhali 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Gospodinov
G
2
Gustavo Cascardo
D
93
F. Eboa
D
23
E. Viyachki
D
35
D. Velkovski
D
80
L. Kotev
M
18
C. Huseynov
M
10
S. Kovachev
🟨 86'
M
20
S. Yusein
↓ 72'
M
99
B. Karagaren
↓ 90+3'
M
30
W. Samake
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
12
I. Nedelchev
G
4
D. Idowu
M
6
P. Krachunov
↑ 90+3'
M
11
A. Shinyashiki
↑ 72'
M
17
Patrick Luan
↑ 72'
F
21
V. Velev
D
24
M. Paskalev
D
26
B. Akandzha
M
Cherno More Varna 3-5-2
Starting XI
81
K. Tomov
G
28
V. Drobarov
↓ 68'
D
3
Z. Atanasov
D
26
Joao Bandaro
D
50
E. Tombak
M
71
V. Panayotov
🟨 25'
M
10
A. Chandarov
M
24
D. Teles
↓ 68'
M
15
D. Martin
77
C. Sidney
↓ 90+4'
F
39
N. Zlatev
↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
70
A. Manasiev
G
16
A. Calcan
↑ 68'
M
19
G. Lazarov
↑ 59'
F
93
G. Ventsislavov
D
13
E. Nyagolov
D
22
N. Kostadinov
M
4
R. Stefanov
↑ 68'
D
2
T. Panov
↑ 90+4'
F
60
G. Paskov
M
Last matches: Arda Kardzhali
18.07.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Septemvri Sofia
1
1
D
10.07.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Vratsa
0
1
L
07.07.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Beitar Jerusalem
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
2
L
01.07.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Rilski Sportist
2
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv
1
2
L
25.05.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
3
2
W
16.05.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
0
W
12.05.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv
2
1
W
08.05.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
2
L
26.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv
0
2
L
15.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Ludogorets
1
0
W
09.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Levski Sofia
0
1
L
04.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Montana
2
1
W
21.03.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Septemvri Sofia
4
1
W
16.03.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Dobrudzha
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Vratsa
0
1
L
04.03.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
27.02.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Spartak Varna
1
0
W
22.02.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Beroe
0
0
D
Last matches: Cherno More Varna
19.07.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Cherno More Varna
Dunav Ruse
1
1
D
08.07.26
Fri
Cherno More Varna
Dobrudzha
2
2
D
08.07.26
Fri
Cherno More Varna
Farul Constanta
1
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Cherno More Varna
Spartak Pleven
1
0
W
01.07.26
Fri
Cherno More Varna
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0
0
D
24.06.26
Fri
Cherno More Varna
Yantra 2019
1
0
W
25.05.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
2
3
L
16.05.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Botev Plovdiv
0
5
L
12.05.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2
0
W
09.05.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Botev Plovdiv
2
0
W
26.04.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
15.04.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
CSKA 1948
0
4
L
09.04.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Ludogorets
0
0
D
05.04.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Slavia Sofia
1
3
L
21.03.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Levski Sofia
1
2
L
15.03.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Montana
1
0
W
07.03.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Septemvri Sofia
3
0
W
04.03.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
28.02.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Dobrudzha
1
2
L
H2H: Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
25.05.26
H2H
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
2
3
W
03.05.26
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
04.03.26
H2H
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
12.12.25
H2H
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
0
3
W
22.09.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
1
L
18.05.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
04.05.25
H2H
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
1
1
D
02.04.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
4
0
W
15.09.24
H2H
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
1
1
D
07.11.23
H2H
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
1
0
L
15.07.23
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
3
3
D
03.05.23
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
2
2
D
14.10.22
H2H
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
1
1
D
12.03.22
H2H
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
2
0
L
02.10.21
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
3
L
Last matches: Arda Kardzhali
07.07.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Beitar Jerusalem
0
0
D
16.05.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
0
W
26.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv
0
2
L
15.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Ludogorets
1
0
W
04.04.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Montana
2
1
W
16.03.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Dobrudzha
2
0
W
27.02.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Spartak Varna
1
0
W
14.02.26
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Slavia Sofia
2
1
W
29.01.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Neftchi
1
0
W
26.01.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
FC UFA
2
1
W
15.01.26
Fri
Arda Kardzhali
Levski Karlovo
3
0
W
02.12.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Plovdiv
0
0
D
22.11.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
3
0
W
02.11.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Levski Sofia
0
3
L
20.10.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Septemvri Sofia
0
1
L
28.09.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Botev Vratsa
0
2
L
22.09.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
1
L
18.09.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
31.08.25
Fir
Arda Kardzhali
Beroe
2
2
D
28.08.25
UEF
Arda Kardzhali
Raków Częstochowa
1
2
L
H2H at home: Arda Kardzhali
03.05.26
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
22.09.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
1
L
18.05.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
02.04.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
4
0
W
15.07.23
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
3
3
D
03.05.23
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
2
2
D
02.10.21
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
3
L
Last matches: Cherno More Varna
19.07.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
1
1
D
08.07.26
Fri
Cherno More Varna
Farul Constanta
1
0
W
24.06.26
Fri
Cherno More Varna
Yantra 2019
1
0
W
16.05.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Botev Plovdiv
0
5
L
26.04.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
09.04.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Ludogorets
0
0
D
21.03.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Levski Sofia
1
2
L
07.03.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Septemvri Sofia
3
0
W
28.02.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Dobrudzha
1
2
L
15.02.26
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
1
D
23.01.26
Fri
Cherno More Varna
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
6
0
W
10.01.26
Fri
Cherno More Varna
Farul Constanta
2
1
W
03.12.25
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Beroe
2
1
W
29.11.25
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Botev Plovdiv
1
2
L
09.11.25
Fir
Cherno More Varna
CSKA 1948
1
0
W
25.10.25
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Slavia Sofia
0
0
D
04.10.25
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Montana
3
1
W
22.09.25
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Arda Kardzhali
1
0
W
29.08.25
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
0
1
L
16.08.25
Fir
Cherno More Varna
Spartak Varna
3
1
W
H2H away: Cherno More Varna
03.05.26
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
22.09.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
1
W
18.05.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
02.04.25
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
4
0
L
15.07.23
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
3
3
D
03.05.23
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
2
2
D
02.10.21
H2H
Arda Kardzhali
Cherno More Varna
0
3
W

Standings

A PFG: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 4 4 64:22 42 70
D W D W W
2 30 17 9 4 57:20 37 60
L D W W W
3 30 18 5 7 50:31 19 59
W W L W W
4 30 16 8 6 43:23 20 56
D W W W L
5 30 11 13 6 30:33 -3 46
D D W W W
6 30 11 11 8 33:26 7 44
L D L L W
7 30 12 8 10 33:27 6 44
W L W W W
8 30 11 7 12 40:37 3 40
W D W W L
9 30 10 9 11 36:33 3 39
D L W L D
10 30 9 11 10 24:26 -2 38
W L D L W
11 30 9 10 11 40:39 1 37
L W L L W
12 30 5 12 13 25:50 -25 27
D W L L L
13 30 7 5 18 23:43 -20 26
L L D L L
14 30 7 5 18 25:58 -33 26
D W D L L
15 30 4 11 15 19:44 -25 23
D L L W L
16 30 3 8 19 15:45 -30 17
D L L L L
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