BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Aparecidense
Match Timeline
Luverdense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
49'
Pedro Bortoluzo
Luverdense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
79.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
61.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Aparecidense Win 45%
Draw 20.6%
Luverdense Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aparecidense1.1
Luverdense1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aparecidense Aparecidense
WWDLW
3 GF / 3 GA
Luverdense Luverdense
WLDWL
2 GF / 1 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.5
1
BTTS Yes
1
1
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aparecidense Aparecidense 2 matches
Luverdense Luverdense 2 matches
Aparecidense Statistic Luverdense
1 Wins 1
0 Draws 1
1 Losses 0
3 Goals For 2
3 Goals Against 1
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.5
1 BTTS Yes 1
2 Over 1.5 1
1 Over 2.5 1
1 Over 3.5 0
0 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Luverdense's more proactive style and Aparecidense's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Luverdense having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Luverdense.

Aparecidense Analysis

Aparecidense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 3 points after 2 matches. Their overall return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 3:3 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ivan Junior (2 goals), Guilherme Dourado (1 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Luverdense Analysis

Placed 2 with 4 points from 2 outings, Luverdense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 2:1 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Bady (1 goals), Hitalo (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Aparecidense won 1 times, Luverdense won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:6 from Aparecidense's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.4%)
H2H summary: Aparecidense wins 1, draws 0, Luverdense wins 3
Last matches: Aparecidense
27.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
0
4
L
20.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
3
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
0
2
L
23.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
0
2
L
17.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
3
2
W
09.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
02.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
26.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
12.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
7
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
0
W
Last matches: Luverdense
18.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
ABC
0
0
D
12.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
Guaporé
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
Guaporé
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
1
W
07.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
0
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
02.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
1
D
12.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
0
0
D
05.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
0
1
L
H2H: Aparecidense vs Luverdense
24.05.26
H2H
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
L
18.04.26
H2H
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
07.06.25
H2H
Luverdense
Aparecidense
3
1
L
31.05.25
H2H
Aparecidense
Luverdense
4
1
W
Last matches: Aparecidense
20.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
0
2
L
23.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
0
2
L
09.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
26.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
7
0
W
14.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Ceilândia
2
0
W
31.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
4
1
W
17.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
1
W
26.04.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
H2H at home: Aparecidense
18.04.26
H2H
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
31.05.25
H2H
Aparecidense
Luverdense
4
1
W
Last matches: Luverdense
12.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
Guaporé
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
0
4
L
04.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
1
D
05.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
0
1
L
14.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Porto Velho
0
0
D
31.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
4
L
18.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Capital Brasilia
0
2
L
03.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
1
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
H2H away: Luverdense
18.04.26
H2H
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
W
31.05.25
H2H
Aparecidense
Luverdense
4
1
L