BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Aparecidense
Match Timeline
Capital Brasilia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
45'
Carlos Baje
Aparecidense
72'
Lucas Oliveira
Capital Brasilia
86'
Aparecidense
Aparecidense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds 2.80
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.36
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.7%
2.80
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.36
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.36
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Aparecidense Win 33%
Draw 4.4%
Capital Brasilia Win 62.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aparecidense1.02
Capital Brasilia1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aparecidense Aparecidense
WWDLW
13 GF / 12 GA
Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia
WLDWL
16 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
0.6
7
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aparecidense Aparecidense 10 matches
Capital Brasilia Capital Brasilia 10 matches
Aparecidense Statistic Capital Brasilia
3 Wins 7
4 Draws 2
3 Losses 1
13 Goals For 16
12 Goals Against 6
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.6
7 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Capital Brasilia having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Capital Brasilia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Capital Brasilia. Capital Brasilia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 23 points while Aparecidense sit 4 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Aparecidense Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Aparecidense arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 13 points after 10 matches. The return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 13:12 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Carlos Baje (3 goals), Ivan Junior (2 goals), Luan (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Capital Brasilia Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Capital Brasilia arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 23 points after 10 matches. With 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses plus a goal ratio of 16:6, they bring very strong form with results showing strong momentum into this tie. Going forward they rely on Gustavo Nescau (2 goals), Matheuzinho (2 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Aparecidense won 2 times, Capital Brasilia won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from Aparecidense's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
H2H summary: Aparecidense wins 2, draws 0, Capital Brasilia wins 0
Last matches: Aparecidense
07.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
3
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
0
2
L
23.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
0
2
L
17.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
3
2
W
09.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
02.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
26.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
12.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
7
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
0
W
14.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Ceilândia
2
0
W
Last matches: Capital Brasilia
07.06.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
União Rondonópolis
2
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
CEOV Operário
5
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiatuba EC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
CEOV Operário
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
União Rondonópolis
1
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
1
2
L
20.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Porto Velho
3
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
2
D
05.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
0
1
L
28.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Luverdense
1
2
L
15.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goianésia
1
1
D
07.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiânia
1
1
D
01.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiânia
0
0
D
25.05.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goianésia
1
0
W
18.05.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Luverdense
2
0
W
H2H: Aparecidense vs Capital Brasilia
26.07.25
H2H
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
19.04.25
H2H
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
0
1
W
Last matches: Aparecidense
30.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
3
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
0
2
L
23.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
0
2
L
09.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
26.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
7
0
W
14.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Ceilândia
2
0
W
31.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
4
1
W
17.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
1
W
26.04.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
H2H at home: Aparecidense
26.07.25
H2H
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
Last matches: Capital Brasilia
30.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
CEOV Operário
5
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Capital Brasilia
União Rondonópolis
1
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Aparecidense
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Mixto
0
1
L
28.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Luverdense
1
2
L
07.06.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goiânia
1
1
D
25.05.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Goianésia
1
0
W
03.05.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Ceilândia
0
1
L
26.04.25
Ser
Capital Brasilia
Porto Velho
1
0
W
H2H away: Capital Brasilia
26.07.25
H2H
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 2.74
Home 2.61
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.25 1.26
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 1.75 1.52
Over 2.0 1.74
Over 2.25 2.06
Over 2.5 2.36
Over 2.75 2.77
Over 3.0 3.38
Under 1.25 3.48
Under 1.5 2.73
Under 1.75 2.40
Under 2.0 2.04
Under 2.25 1.70
Under 2.5 1.52
Under 2.75 1.38
Under 3.0 1.25
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.70
Draw 2.80
Home 2.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 1.91
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.20
Home 3.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.11
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 4.5 8.50
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 6.00
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.76
Home 2.58
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.66
Draw 1.80
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.14
Draw 2.17
Home 2.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.0 1.10
Over 1.25 1.26
Over 1.5 1.41
Over 1.75 1.53
Over 2.0 1.73
Over 2.25 2.04
Over 2.5 2.34
Over 2.75 2.70
Over 3.0 3.50
Over 3.25 3.90
Over 3.5 4.30
Over 4.0 7.90
Over 4.5 9.50
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 6.70
Under 1.0 5.05
Under 1.25 3.20
Under 1.5 2.52
Under 1.75 2.21
Under 2.0 1.90
Under 2.25 1.68
Under 2.5 1.52
Under 2.75 1.36
Under 3.0 1.22
Under 3.25 1.18
Under 3.5 1.15
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.65
Draw 2.80
Home 2.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.35
Draw 1.97
Home 3.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.05
Draw 2.25
Home 2.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.41
Over 2.5 2.35
Over 3.5 4.40
Under 1.5 2.55
Under 2.5 1.48
Under 3.5 1.15

Standings

Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)