BRAZIL SERIE B
14.09.2026 22:30
Arena Independência
Referee: J. Pinheiro
America Mineiro
Match Timeline
São Bernardo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
53'
Barreto
America Mineiro
🟨
54'
Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva
São Bernardo
🔄
60'
Julio César Leme Do Nascimento ↔ Matías Segovia
America Mineiro
🔄
60'
Otavio Goncalves ↔ Jorge Jiménez
America Mineiro
🟨
67'
Helder Maciel
São Bernardo
68'
Willian
America Mineiro
🔄
69'
Felipe Garcia ↔ Pedro Vitor Ferreira da Silva
São Bernardo
🔄
69'
Romisson ↔ Fabrício Daniel
São Bernardo
🔄
76'
Guilherme Parede ↔ Rodrigo Pineiro
America Mineiro
🔄
76'
Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes ↔ Daniel Davi Simão Roque
São Bernardo
🔄
77'
Eduardo·da Silva Albuquerque ↔ Foguinho
São Bernardo
80'
Fabrício Daniel · Assist: Daniel Davi Simão Roque
São Bernardo
🔄
81'
Barreto ↔ Fernando Elizari
America Mineiro
🔄
81'
Willian ↔ Marcelo Enrique Maçola Filho
America Mineiro
🔄
82'
Helder Maciel ↔ Luiz Gustavo Oliveira da Silva
São Bernardo
🟨
85'
Jorge Jiménez
America Mineiro
88'
Pedro Vitor Ferreira da Silva · Assist: Rodrigo Ferreira
São Bernardo
🟨
90+3'
Fabrício Daniel
São Bernardo

America Mineiro vs São Bernardo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.7%
Odds 2.95
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.16
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.7%
2.95
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.16
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.10
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
America Mineiro Win 35.2%
Draw 14.1%
São Bernardo Win 50.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
America Mineiro0.93
São Bernardo1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WWDLW
21 GF / 46 GA
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WLDWL
37 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.78
Average Goals Scored
1.37
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
14
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
13
4.63
Shots on Goal
4.26

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America Mineiro America Mineiro 27 matches
São Bernardo São Bernardo 27 matches
America Mineiro Statistic São Bernardo
4 Wins 9
5 Draws 8
18 Losses 10
21 Goals For 37
46 Goals Against 31
0.78 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
14 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 20
16 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 5
4.63 Shots On Goal 4.26
13.52 Total Shots 12.07
5.56 Corners 4.89
53.7% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by São Bernardo's more proactive style and America Mineiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward São Bernardo. America Mineiro have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. São Bernardo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 14 with 32 points while America Mineiro sit 19 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

America Mineiro Analysis

With 14 points from 26 games and a place of 19, America Mineiro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 19:45 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Gonzalo Mastriani (4 goals), Matías Segovia (2 goals), Willian (2 goals), with creative support from Matías Segovia (2 assists), Willian (2 assists), Gonzalo Mastriani (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo sit 14 with 32 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 34:29, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Rodrigo Ferreira (4 goals), Pedro Vitor (3 goals), Pedrinho (3 goals), with creative support from Romisson (4 assists), Pedro Vitor (3 assists), Eduardo (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, America Mineiro won 0 times, São Bernardo won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from America Mineiro's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86%)
Predicted formations: America Mineiro 4-2-3-1 / São Bernardo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: America Mineiro wins 0, draws 1, São Bernardo wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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