BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Arena Independência
Referee: F. Mendes
America Mineiro
Match Timeline
Ceara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
Richardson ↔ Giovanni Pavani
Ceara
🟨
47'
Éder
Ceara
🔄
56'
Ricardo Silva ↔ Rafa Barcelos
America Mineiro
🔄
65'
Lucca ↔ R. Lopez
Ceara
67'
M. Segovia · Assist: Paulo Victor
America Mineiro
🔄
69'
Joao Gabriel ↔ Vina
Ceara
🔄
69'
Melk ↔ Enzo Lodovico
Ceara
🟨
71'
Bryan Borges
Ceara
🟨
73'
Gustavo
America Mineiro
🔄
79'
Yago Souza ↔ Jorge Jimenez
America Mineiro
🔄
80'
Paulo Victor ↔ Gonzalo Mastriani
America Mineiro
🔄
80'
Lucas Mugni ↔ Juan Alano
Ceara
🟨
88'
Rafael Barcelos
America Mineiro
89'
Vina
Ceara
🟨
90'
Alex Silva
America Mineiro
🟨
90+5'
Renzo López
Ceara
🔄
90+2'
M. Segovia ↔ Julio Cesar
America Mineiro
🔄
90+2'
Guilherme Parede ↔ G. Italo
America Mineiro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 78.6%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
78.6%
-
BTTS No
65.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
America Mineiro Win 21.4%
Draw 40.5%
Ceara Win 38.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
America Mineiro0.86
Ceara1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WWDLW
11 GF / 28 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
15 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.65
Average Goals Scored
0.88
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
8
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
5
4.47
Shots on Goal
3.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America Mineiro America Mineiro 17 matches
Ceara Ceara 17 matches
America Mineiro Statistic Ceara
1 Wins 4
4 Draws 6
12 Losses 7
11 Goals For 15
28 Goals Against 20
0.65 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
8 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 7
4.47 Shots On Goal 3.76
12.94 Total Shots 13.12
5.53 Corners 5.94
54.8% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ceara. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with America Mineiro expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Ceara in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ceara having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Ceara carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 17 with 18 points while America Mineiro sit 20 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

America Mineiro Analysis

With 7 points from 17 games and a place of 20, America Mineiro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 4 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 11:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gonzalo Mastriani (3 goals), Matías Segovia (1 goals), Felipe Amaral (1 goals), with creative support from Matías Segovia (2 assists), Willian Bigode (2 assists), Felipe Amaral (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ceara Analysis

With 18 points from 17 games and a place of 17, Ceara still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats with a 15:20 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Melk (4 goals), Júlio César (2 goals), Matheus Araújo (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Júlio César (1 assists), Fernandinho (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, America Mineiro won 5 times, Ceara won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from America Mineiro's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (78.6%)
Predicted formations: America Mineiro 4-3-3 / Ceara 3-5-2
H2H summary: America Mineiro wins 5, draws 7, Ceara wins 3
Stats
America Mineiro America Mineiro
Ceara Ceara
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
6
4 Corner Kicks 5
12 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 6
6 Shots insidebox 4
6 Shots outsidebox 7
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
484 Total passes 321
406 Passes accurate 252
1.20 expected_goals 0.64
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

America Mineiro
Formation
Ceara
Gustavo
Gustavo
Alex Silva
Alex Silva
Ricardo Silva
Ricardo Silva
Manoel
Manoel
Dalbert
Dalbert
Felipe Amaral
Felipe Amaral
M. Segovia
M. Segovia
Paulo Victor
🎯
Paulo Victor
Yago Souza
Yago Souza
Gabriel Barros
Gabriel Barros
Guilherme Parede
Guilherme Parede
Richard
Richard
Bryan Borges
Bryan Borges
Julio Cesar
Julio Cesar
Eder
Eder
Sanchez
Sanchez
Joao Gabriel
Joao Gabriel
Lucas Mugni
Lucas Mugni
Richardson
Richardson
Melk
Melk
Lucca
Lucca
Giulio
Giulio
America Mineiro 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
Gustavo
🟨 73'
G
15
Alex Silva
🟨 90'
D
45
Ricardo Silva
↓ 56'
D
26
Manoel
D
29
Dalbert
D
8
Felipe Amaral
M
77
M. Segovia
⚽ 67' ↓ 90+2'
M
20
Paulo Victor
🎯 67' ↓ 80'
M
10
Yago Souza
↓ 79'
M
11
Gabriel Barros
M
7
Guilherme Parede
↓ 90+2'
F
Substitutes
19
William
G
17
Gonzalo Mastriani
↑ 80'
F
38
M. Rodrigues
D
5
F. Elizari
M
93
Jorge Jimenez
↑ 79'
M
6
Gabriel Domingos
M
42
Jhonny
D
4
Rafa Barcelos
↑ 56' 🟨 88'
D
61
G. Oliveira
D
30
L. Montes
D
37
Julio Cesar
↑ 90+2'
M
39
G. Italo
↑ 90+2'
F
Ceara 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Richard
G
31
Bryan Borges
🟨 71'
D
18
Julio Cesar
D
33
Eder
🟨 47'
D
12
Sanchez
D
81
Joao Gabriel
↓ 69'
M
11
Lucas Mugni
↓ 80'
M
26
Richardson
↓ 46'
M
40
Melk
↓ 69'
F
99
Lucca
↓ 65'
F
35
Giulio
F
Substitutes
94
Bruno Ferreira
G
21
Giovanni Pavani
↑ 46'
M
10
Juan Alano
↑ 80'
F
29
Vina
⚽ 89' ↑ 69'
M
13
Luiz Otavio
D
7
R. Lopez
↑ 65' 🟨 90+5'
F
6
Savio
D
8
Matheus Araujo
M
71
Gabriel Rocha
M
88
Caio
M
60
Enzo Lodovico
↑ 69'
F
Last matches: America Mineiro
24.08.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Sport Recife
0
3
L
20.08.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Novorizontino
0
3
L
16.08.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Athletic Club
1
3
L
08.08.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Botafogo SP
1
2
L
26.07.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Goias
1
0
W
21.07.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Avai
1
2
L
13.07.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Londrina
1
1
D
02.07.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Cuiaba
0
1
L
27.06.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Operario-PR
0
1
L
23.06.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Criciuma
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Fortaleza EC
3
0
W
08.06.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Juventude
0
3
L
24.05.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Vila Nova
1
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
America Mineiro
São Bernardo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Nautico Recife
0
4
L
03.05.26
Ser
America Mineiro
CRB
1
2
L
24.04.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Ponte Preta
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Sport Recife
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Novorizontino
0
3
L
Last matches: Ceara
22.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
2
1
W
19.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
15.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
3
L
07.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
4
3
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
H2H: America Mineiro vs Ceara
17.07.26
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
1
1
D
19.11.24
H2H
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
0
L
28.07.24
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
2
2
D
01.10.22
H2H
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
2
W
08.06.22
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
0
2
L
05.12.21
H2H
Ceara
America Mineiro
0
0
D
29.08.21
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
2
0
W
09.09.18
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
0
0
D
14.05.18
H2H
Ceara
America Mineiro
2
2
D
16.09.17
H2H
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
07.06.17
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
1
0
W
21.11.15
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
1
1
D
11.08.15
H2H
Ceara
America Mineiro
0
2
W
09.09.14
H2H
Ceara
America Mineiro
5
2
L
27.04.14
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
3
0
W
Last matches: America Mineiro
16.08.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Athletic Club
1
3
L
26.07.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Goias
1
0
W
13.07.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Londrina
1
1
D
23.06.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Criciuma
0
1
L
08.06.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Vila Nova
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
America Mineiro
CRB
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Sport Recife
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Novorizontino
0
3
L
01.04.26
Ser
America Mineiro
Botafogo SP
1
2
L
H2H at home: America Mineiro
17.07.26
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
1
1
D
28.07.24
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
2
2
D
08.06.22
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
0
2
L
29.08.21
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
2
0
W
09.09.18
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
0
0
D
07.06.17
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
1
0
W
21.11.15
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
1
1
D
27.04.14
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
3
0
W
Last matches: Ceara
19.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
26.07.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
4
3
W
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
H2H away: Ceara
17.07.26
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
1
1
D
28.07.24
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
2
2
D
08.06.22
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
0
2
W
29.08.21
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
2
0
L
09.09.18
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
0
0
D
07.06.17
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
1
0
L
21.11.15
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
1
1
D
27.04.14
H2H
America Mineiro
Ceara
3
0
L

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 24 12 8 4 25:17 8 44
L D W L D
3 24 12 5 7 35:25 10 41
D W W L L
4 24 11 7 6 39:21 18 40
W W D L W
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 24 9 11 4 32:22 10 38
W L W W D
7 24 10 6 8 35:34 1 36
L W D W W
8 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
9 24 9 9 6 27:23 4 36
W D L D W
10 24 8 10 6 25:25 0 34
L L W W D
11 24 9 6 9 23:29 -6 33
D L L W L
12 24 7 12 5 21:18 3 33
D W W D D
13 24 8 8 8 33:27 6 32
D D L W L
14 24 8 7 9 28:26 2 31
L D W W L
15 24 8 7 9 28:27 1 31
D W D D D
16 24 8 5 11 27:30 -3 29
W W W L L
17
Ceara Away
24 7 7 10 25:30 -5 28
W L L W W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 24 2 5 17 16:42 -26 11
L L L L W
20 24 2 4 18 16:50 -34 10
L L D L D
Promotion
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