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14.11.2026 19:30
Arena Independência

America Mineiro vs Avai Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 65.2%
Odds 1.91
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
65.2%
1.91 ▥
BTTS No
65.8%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.85 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
21.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
America Mineiro Win 35.4%
Draw 29.8%
Avai Win 34.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
America Mineiro0.95
Avai1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
America Mineiro America Mineiro
W W W W L
6 GF / 2 GA
Avai Avai
W L L D W
3 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
0.73
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.49
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
15
BTTS Yes
17
17
Over 2.5
16
4.43
Shots on Goal
3.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America Mineiro America Mineiro 37 matches
Avai Avai 37 matches
America Mineiro Statistic Avai
8 Wins 11
5 Draws 7
24 Losses 19
27 Goals For 35
55 Goals Against 47
0.73 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.49 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
15 BTTS Yes 17
24 Over 1.5 24
17 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 9
16 Failed To Score 14
4.43 Shots On Goal 3.73
13.16 Total Shots 12.7
5.16 Corners 4.62
51.9% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Avai. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

America Mineiro Analysis

America Mineiro sit 19 with 26 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 24 defeats, and the 26:55 goal record continues to suggest good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking burden often falls on Willian (4 goals), M. Segovia (4 goals), Gonzalo Mastriani (4 goals), with creative support from Guilherme Parede (3 assists), Willian (2 assists), M. Segovia (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Avai Analysis

With 37 points from 36 games and a place of 17, Avai still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 7 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 33:46 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Daniel Penha (6 goals), Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Jean Lucas (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (6 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), João Vitor Cardoso de Souza (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, America Mineiro won 6 times, Avai won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:17 from America Mineiro's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (70.2%)
Predicted formations: America Mineiro 4-2-3-1 / Avai 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: America Mineiro wins 6, draws 3, Avai wins 6

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 37 20 10 7 66:32 34 70
W W W D W
2 37 19 11 7 49:26 23 68
W D W D D
3 37 19 9 9 53:38 15 66
W D L D W
4 37 18 8 11 38:31 7 62
L W L W W
5 37 16 14 7 44:33 11 62
L D D W D
6 37 17 7 13 57:51 6 58
W L W L D
7 37 17 7 13 39:41 -2 58
W W W D W
8 37 15 13 9 45:35 10 58
W D L D D
9 37 14 13 10 50:42 8 55
L D W L D
10 37 15 9 13 49:50 -1 54
W L W L L
11 37 14 10 13 52:42 10 52
L W W L D
12 37 14 9 14 45:39 6 51
W D W W W
13 37 11 14 12 34:32 2 47
L L L L L
14 37 11 14 12 44:44 0 47
L W L D D
15 37 12 10 15 40:49 -9 46
L W L D L
16 37 11 10 16 38:47 -9 43
L L L D L
17
Avai Away
37 11 7 19 35:47 -12 40
W L L D W
18 37 8 8 21 45:58 -13 32
L L L W D
19 37 8 5 24 27:55 -28 29
W W W W L
20 37 3 6 28 21:79 -58 15
L L D D L
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