PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
10.05.2026 19:30
FC Alverca Sports Complex
Referee: I. Vasilica
Alverca
Match Timeline
Estoril
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
Figueiredo · Assist: N. Touaizi
Alverca
🟨
45+3'
Rhaldney
Alverca
🟨
45+3'
Antef Tsoungui
Estoril
🔄
46'
Ferro ↔ G. Costa
Estoril
🔄
46'
P. Amaral ↔ A. Lacximicant
Estoril
⚽
47'
A. Lacximicant · Assist: G. Costa
Estoril
🟨
56'
Bastien Meupiyou
Alverca
🔄
66'
D. Spencer ↔ I. Julian
Alverca
🔄
72'
Xeka ↔ K. Boma
Estoril
🔄
74'
Sandro Lima ↔ Felipe Lima
Alverca
🔄
74'
Rhaldney ↔ V. Moreira
Alverca
🔄
80'
R. Sanchez ↔ P. Carvalho
Estoril
🔄
80'
R. Guitane ↔ Peixinho
Estoril
🔄
88'
D. Gui ↔ C. Nuozzi
Alverca
🔄
88'
B. Meupiyou ↔ S. Baseya
Alverca
🟨
90+4'
Kaiky Naves
Alverca
🟨
90+4'
Pedro Carvalho
Estoril

Alverca vs Estoril Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Alverca Win 58.8%
Draw 9.4%
Estoril Win 31.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alverca1.3
Estoril1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alverca Alverca
WWDLW
34 GF / 50 GA
Estoril Estoril
WLDWL
52 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.66
18
BTTS Yes
18
17
Over 2.5
20
3.69
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alverca Alverca 32 matches
Estoril Estoril 32 matches
Alverca Statistic Estoril
10 Wins 10
8 Draws 8
14 Losses 14
34 Goals For 52
50 Goals Against 53
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.66
18 BTTS Yes 18
25 Over 1.5 24
17 Over 2.5 20
8 Over 3.5 17
6 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 10
3.69 Shots On Goal 4.03
9.78 Total Shots 11.53
4.38 Corners 4.47
44.8% Ball Possession 52.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Estoril arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Estoril. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Alverca Analysis

Alverca sit 10 with 38 points after 32 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses, while the 34:50 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Marezi (9 goals), Figueiredo (5 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals), with creative support from Lincoln (5 assists), Chiquinho (4 assists), Nabil Touaizi (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Estoril Analysis

Estoril approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 38 points from 32 matches. Their record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 52:53, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Y. Begraoui (20 goals), João Carvalho (6 goals), Alejandro Marqués (4 goals), with creative support from João Carvalho (11 assists), Jordan Holsgrove (7 assists), R. Guitane (5 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Alverca won 2 times, Estoril won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:6 from Alverca's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Alverca 3-4-3 / Estoril 3-4-3
H2H summary: Alverca wins 2, draws 1, Estoril wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2