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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
24.10.2026 14:30
FC Alverca Sports Complex

Alverca vs Arouca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 61.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
61.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Alverca Win 38.2%
Draw 18.9%
Arouca Win 42.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alverca1.24
Arouca1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alverca Alverca
WWDLW
19 GF / 14 GA
Arouca Arouca
WLDWL
14 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
7
BTTS Yes
4
6
Over 2.5
6
4.13
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alverca Alverca 13 matches
Arouca Arouca 13 matches
Alverca Statistic Arouca
7 Wins 5
2 Draws 4
4 Losses 4
19 Goals For 14
14 Goals Against 12
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
7 BTTS Yes 4
9 Over 1.5 8
6 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 5
4.13 Shots On Goal 3.75
12.13 Total Shots 10.5
4.75 Corners 3.13
42.8% Ball Possession 49%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alverca expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Arouca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Arouca having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Arouca. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Alverca Analysis

Alverca are currently 8 in the standings with 11 points from 8 matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 13:12 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vivaldo Semedo (3 goals), D. Camara (3 goals), Chiquinho (2 goals), with creative support from Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques (3 assists), Chiquinho (2 assists), I. James (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Arouca Analysis

Placed 5 with 14 points from 8 outings, Arouca continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 11:7 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Barbero (5 goals), José Fontán (2 goals), D. Nandín (2 goals), with creative support from N. Djouahra (5 assists), A. Trezza (1 assists), Pablo Gozálbez (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Alverca won 1 times, Arouca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Alverca's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.2%)
Predicted formations: Alverca 3-4-3 / Arouca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alverca wins 1, draws 0, Arouca wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 20:4 16 24
W W W W W
2 8 6 1 1 24:7 17 19
W L W W W
3 8 5 3 0 20:9 11 18
W D D W W
4 8 5 3 0 12:4 8 18
W D W W D
5 8 4 2 2 11:7 4 14
W D L D W
6 8 4 2 2 11:10 1 14
W W W W L
7 7 3 2 2 6:5 1 11
W D L L D
8 8 3 2 3 13:12 1 11
W W W L D
9 7 3 2 2 8:8 0 11
L D W L W
10 8 2 4 2 14:15 -1 10
L L D W D
11 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
L D L L L
12 8 2 2 4 8:15 -7 8
L D W L L
13 8 1 4 3 10:11 -1 7
L W D D D
14 8 2 1 5 8:17 -9 7
W L D L L
15 8 1 2 5 5:10 -5 5
L D L D L
16 8 1 1 6 9:18 -9 4
L L L L L
17 8 1 1 6 3:17 -14 4
L W L D L
18 8 0 2 6 4:12 -8 2
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2