PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
24.04.2026 19:15
FC Alverca Sports Complex
Referee: D. Rosa
Alverca
Match Timeline
Arouca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
Naves · Assist: N. Touaizi
Alverca
🟨
35'
Tiago Esgaio
Arouca
49'
E. van Ee · Assist: B. Kuipers
Arouca
🔄
60'
P. Gozalbez ↔ A. Trezza
Arouca
🟨
61'
Jose Fontán
Arouca
🟨
67'
Matías Rocha
Arouca
🔄
68'
Sandro Lima ↔ Marezi
Alverca
🔄
68'
S. Gomez ↔ S. Baseya
Alverca
🟨
70'
Espen Van Ee
Arouca
71'
Marezi · Assist: Chiquinho
Alverca
🔄
75'
E. van Ee ↔ Pedro Santos
Arouca
🔄
75'
H. Lee ↔ M. Flores
Arouca
🔄
82'
Figueiredo ↔ D. Gui
Alverca
🔄
83'
M. Rocha ↔ F. Mayulu
Arouca
🔄
83'
T. Fukui ↔ B. Mansilla
Arouca
🟨
89'
Alfonso Trezza
Arouca
🟨
90+6'
Pedro Santos
Arouca
🔄
90+1'
Chiquinho ↔ D. Spencer
Alverca
🔄
90+1'
Rhaldney ↔ V. Moreira
Alverca

Alverca vs Arouca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Alverca Win 53.7%
Draw 10.7%
Arouca Win 35.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alverca1.41
Arouca1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alverca Alverca
WWDLW
32 GF / 48 GA
Arouca Arouca
WLDWL
38 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.93
17
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
19
3.67
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alverca Alverca 30 matches
Arouca Arouca 30 matches
Alverca Statistic Arouca
9 Wins 10
8 Draws 5
13 Losses 15
32 Goals For 38
48 Goals Against 58
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.93
17 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 23
16 Over 2.5 19
8 Over 3.5 14
6 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 9
3.67 Shots On Goal 3.43
9.87 Total Shots 10.37
4.33 Corners 3.7
45.1% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Arouca. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alverca expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Arouca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Arouca having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Alverca Analysis

Alverca sit 10 with 35 points after 30 league matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 32:47 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Marezi (8 goals), Figueiredo (5 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals), with creative support from Lincoln (5 assists), Chiquinho (3 assists), Nabil Touaizi (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Arouca Analysis

Arouca are currently 11 in the standings with 35 points from 30 matches. The record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 37:58 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Trezza (8 goals), Ivan Barbero (7 goals), N. Djouahra (6 goals), with creative support from N. Djouahra (3 assists), H. Lee (3 assists), J. Fontan (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Alverca won 1 times, Arouca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Alverca's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Alverca 3-4-3 / Arouca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alverca wins 1, draws 0, Arouca wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2