Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
53.7%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
78.5%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
62.7%
|
- |
Alverca
Arouca
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Alverca
30 matches
Arouca
30 matches
| Alverca | Statistic | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wins | 10 |
| 8 | Draws | 5 |
| 13 | Losses | 15 |
| 32 | Goals For | 38 |
| 48 | Goals Against | 58 |
| 1.07 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.27 |
| 1.6 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.93 |
| 17 | BTTS Yes | 15 |
| 24 | Over 1.5 | 23 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 19 |
| 8 | Over 3.5 | 14 |
| 6 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 3.67 | Shots On Goal | 3.43 |
| 9.87 | Total Shots | 10.37 |
| 4.33 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 45.1% | Ball Possession | 49.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Arouca. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alverca expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Arouca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Arouca having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Alverca sit 10 with 35 points after 30 league matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 32:47 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Marezi (8 goals), Figueiredo (5 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals), with creative support from Lincoln (5 assists), Chiquinho (3 assists), Nabil Touaizi (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.
Arouca are currently 11 in the standings with 35 points from 30 matches. The record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 37:58 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Trezza (8 goals), Ivan Barbero (7 goals), N. Djouahra (6 goals), with creative support from N. Djouahra (3 assists), H. Lee (3 assists), J. Fontan (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Alverca won 1 times, Arouca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Alverca's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.
Alverca
3
3
2
6
2
5
Lineups
Alverca
Mafra
Alverca
Estoril
Alverca
CF Os Belenenses
Alverca
União de Leiria
Alverca
Famalicao
Alverca
Estoril
Alverca
FC Porto
Alverca
Nacional
Alverca
Casa Pia
Alverca
Rio Ave
Alverca
Sporting CP
Alverca
GIL Vicente
Alverca
AVS
Alverca
Guimaraes
Alverca
Santa Clara
Alverca
Tondela
Alverca
Benfica
Alverca
Estrela
Alverca
SC Braga
Alverca
Moreirense
Arouca
Santa Clara
Arouca
Famalicao
Arouca
Feirense
Arouca
Rio Ave
Arouca
Tondela
Arouca
GIL Vicente
Arouca
Santa Clara
Arouca
Estrela
Arouca
SC Braga
Arouca
Estoril
Arouca
Moreirense
Arouca
Benfica
Arouca
Famalicao
Arouca
FC Porto
Arouca
Nacional
Arouca
Casa Pia
Arouca
Guimaraes
Arouca
Rio Ave
Arouca
Sporting CP
Arouca
AVS
Alverca
Estoril
Alverca
CF Os Belenenses
Alverca
Estoril
Alverca
Casa Pia
Alverca
Sporting CP
Alverca
AVS
Alverca
Santa Clara
Alverca
Estrela
Alverca
Moreirense
Alverca
Famalicao
Alverca
FC Porto
Alverca
Nacional
Alverca
Rio Ave
Alverca
GIL Vicente
Alverca
Guimaraes
Alverca
Tondela
Alverca
Benfica
Alverca
SC Braga
Arouca
Santa Clara
Arouca
Famalicao
Arouca
Feirense
Arouca
Rio Ave
Arouca
GIL Vicente
Arouca
SC Braga
Arouca
Moreirense
Arouca
Famalicao
Arouca
FC Porto
Arouca
Casa Pia
Arouca
Rio Ave
Arouca
AVS
Arouca
Tondela
Arouca
Santa Clara
Arouca
Estrela
Arouca
Estoril
Arouca
Benfica
Arouca
Nacional
Arouca
Guimaraes
Arouca
Sporting CP