Alverca vs Arouca Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
53.7%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
78.5%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
62.7%
|
- |
Alverca
Arouca
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Alverca
30 matches
Arouca
30 matches
| Alverca | Statistic | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wins | 10 |
| 8 | Draws | 5 |
| 13 | Losses | 15 |
| 32 | Goals For | 38 |
| 48 | Goals Against | 58 |
| 1.07 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.27 |
| 1.6 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.93 |
| 17 | BTTS Yes | 15 |
| 24 | Over 1.5 | 23 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 19 |
| 8 | Over 3.5 | 14 |
| 6 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 3.67 | Shots On Goal | 3.43 |
| 9.87 | Total Shots | 10.37 |
| 4.33 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 45.1% | Ball Possession | 49.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Arouca. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alverca expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Arouca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Arouca having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Alverca sit 10 with 35 points after 30 league matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 32:47 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Marezi (8 goals), Figueiredo (5 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals), with creative support from Lincoln (5 assists), Chiquinho (3 assists), Nabil Touaizi (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.
Arouca are currently 11 in the standings with 35 points from 30 matches. The record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 37:58 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Trezza (8 goals), Ivan Barbero (7 goals), N. Djouahra (6 goals), with creative support from N. Djouahra (3 assists), H. Lee (3 assists), J. Fontan (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Alverca won 1 times, Arouca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Alverca's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 48 | 88 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 65 | 82 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 49 | 80 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 28 | 59 |
D
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 13 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 9 | 50 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | -12 | 43 |
D
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 |
Arouca
Away
|
34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | -17 | 42 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
| 9 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | -12 | 42 |
L
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | -3 | 39 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 |
Alverca
Home
|
34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | -17 | 39 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
| 12 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | -22 | 36 |
D
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 14 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | -8 | 34 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 15 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | -18 | 30 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | -26 | 30 |
D
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | -28 | 28 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 18 | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | -40 | 21 |
D
W
W
D
D
|